Wholesale used-vehicle prices are expected to gradually cool through the rest of the year after unseasonably appreciating to start 2023.
Improvement in new-vehicle inventory levels and an uptick in incentives offered — though both still far below their pre-pandemic levels — stand to somewhat undercut used-vehicle demand as the year progresses. Such pressure from the new-vehicle side could drive a decline in used-vehicle prices.
However, a used-vehicle inventory crunch expected to deepen through the year likely will keep used-vehicle prices from falling dramatically, said Alex Yurchenko, chief data science officer at Black Book. Franchised dealerships already grappling with tight used-vehicle supply will encounter more scarcity as fewer lease returns, lost in 2020 when COVID-19 closures stunted new-vehicle production, flow back into the market.