Used wholesale prices up — now what?

In May, as retailers struggled to recover from the pandemic, Ron Marhofer Auto Family sold a record 861 used vehicles. The group in Ohio had snatched up inventory when prices plunged in March and April.

"So we were very happy," President Chris Marhofer said. "But now that we're trying to stock up inventory, fill the lots back up, we're finding quite a bit different scenario at the auction."

Dealers throughout the U.S. have seen wholesale prices come roaring back in May and June. Prices tumbled by double digits in April as retail activity fell off dramatically amid store closures and stay-at-home orders. Now that dealerships are reopening — but not many vehicles are being returned to auction — the market has overcorrected.

Wholesale prices rose 16 percent over seven weeks, according to J.D. Power, which said that for the week ending June 7, wholesale values were 4 percent above the pre-virus forecast.

According to Cox Automotive, wholesale prices rose 2.1 percent for the week of June 1, while retail prices climbed 0.5 percent, squeezing margins for dealers. As of June 6, wholesale prices were down just 0.6 percent from the beginning of the year, while retail prices were off 1.1 percent.

"So the big disconnect between retail and wholesale prices is gone," Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke said in a market update last week.

The used-vehicle market is reflecting, in part, the tight supply of new vehicles, especially pickups, after manufacturers lost about two months of production in North America. That shortage has sent more new-truck shoppers picking from the used-vehicle lot, tilting the balance of supply and demand.

Prime Automotive Group in Massachusetts has about 3,200 used vehicles in stock, some 500 fewer than it typically has, said Nasir Uddin, vice president of pre-owned vehicle operations. "Everybody's struggling to get cars," he said.

At the same time, the two major auction companies are still trying to get back up to capacity while running online-only sales. Manheim furloughed some 9,000 workers in May, and ADESA parent KAR Global furloughed about 11,000 people this spring, although both companies have since been calling back hundreds of employees.

"We still got this bottleneck that's happening, where the auctions are not back to full staff," said Laura Wehunt, vice president of vehicle valuations at Black Book. This means vehicles are sometimes not getting checked in, reconditioned and posted for sale as quickly as they normally would, she said. "What's there is selling and selling for really strong money," Wehunt added. "The market has bounced back well."

Hundreds of thousands of excess vehicles are expected to continue coming back to the wholesale market from beleaguered rental companies, as well as by way of deferred leases and repossessions. In May, J.D. Power estimated there were an additional 865,000 deferred used-vehicle returns that would come back to the wholesale side over the next several months.

With the excess vehicles coming back, unemployment still high and federal stimulus set to expire at the end of July, Black Book sees a "negative perfect storm" brewing for wholesale values, said Alex Yurchenko, Black Book's senior vice president of data science.

Prices may be at a high point now, but Black Book expects a decline soon, falling to 15 percent below pre-COVID-19 projections this summer and fall before recovering next year.

J.D. Power's decidedly brighter outlook calls for "normal depreciation" for the remainder of the year, said Jonathan Banks, general manager of vehicle valuations. J.D. Power expects wholesale used values will be down 2 to 4 percent at the end of the year, vs. an initial, pre-COVID-19 projection that called for values to be flat to slightly up.

The research company expects used-vehicle values to remain relatively strong because of low inventory of new vehicles, as well as pent-up demand. Demand has been exceptionally strong over the past three-plus weeks, said Larry Dixon, senior director of valuation services at J.D. Power.

Used retail sales in parts of the country that have been less affected by the coronavirus have been above pre-virus expectations, Dixon said. And markets that have been more impacted are just now coming back to pre-virus levels of activity, he said.

"We have pent-up demand in major markets still," Dixon said. And even with excess supply coming back, those cars and trucks should arrive at a time when dealers are sorely in need of inventory, he said.

In the meantime, dealers may need to be a little more aggressive with trade-in offers or cast wider nets to acquire used cars and trucks. "There's going to be arguably some short-term compression in terms of margins," Dixon said, adding that retail prices aren't likely to rise much.

Uddin, of Prime Automotive, said he plans to hire two full-time used-vehicle buyers whose sole task will be to monitor various online auctions for used vehicles.

More immediately, he's focused on smart appraisals and dealing with lean inventory. "We're kind of focused on running with a tight days' supply and focused more on turn rather than going out and paying too much," he said. "Because we know the bubble is going to burst, eventually."