July wholesale used-car prices plunge

Wholesale used-vehicle prices fell again in July, according to two major indicators. One of them, the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, recorded a fourth-straight but smaller monthly decline.

Cox Automotive said Monday its Manheim index — a measurement of wholesale used-vehicle prices calculated by tracking vehicles sold at Manheim's U.S. auctions and applying statistical analysis — fell 1.6 percent in July from June. Cox adjusts that figure for mix, mileage and seasonality.

And Black Book's Used Vehicle Retention Index — calculated using Black Book's published Wholesale Average value on 2- to 6-year-old used vehicles and weighted based on registration volume and adjusted for seasonality, vehicle age, mileage and condition — fell by 1.4 percent in July from June.

The Manheim index's seasonally adjusted decline of 1.6 percent in July is "an indicator of slowing wholesale price declines, at least when compared to the month-over-month losses we've seen since April," Chris Frey, senior manager of economic and industry insights for Cox Automotive, said in a statement.

The index was 11.6 percent lower last month compared with the same month in 2022, according to Cox.

That July decrease was softened by the seasonal adjustment, Cox said. It also reported nonadjusted figures for the Manheim index: down 3.8 percent in July from June and down 10.7 percent year over year.

Average nonadjusted wholesale prices for 3-year-old vehicles, the largest model year cohort at Manheim's auctions, declined an aggregate 3.4 percent over the last four weeks.

Cox Automotive estimated retail used-vehicle supply in the U.S. stood at 46 days at the end of July, down from 49 days at the end of June and down from 54 days at the end of July 2022. It estimated wholesale used-vehicle supply to have ended July at 27 days, up from 26 days at the end of June and down from 30 days at the end of July 2022.

Used-vehicle retail inventory continues to rebuild, though with used-vehicle retail sales also showing some summer strength, Cox does not foresee wholesale price declines "of serious import" through December, Frey said.

Black Book's own index fell 2.5 points to 171.1 in July, Black Book said. That figure is 9.6 percent below where it was at the same time in 2022. And it's 49 percent higher than in March 2020, when the coronavirus pandemic began.

In July, wholesale prices in most vehicle segments — with the exception of the mid-size car segment — declined at rates "exceeding the typical pace for this time of year," said Alex Yurchenko, chief data science officer at Black Book.

"We have started to see improvements in the conversion rate at auctions as remarketers were willing to lower floors," Yurchenko said in a statement. "On the other hand, dealers did not lower used retail prices in July even as days-to-turn metrics stayed above 50 days. We expect wholesale to continue to decline through the rest of the year."