NEXT STAGE: New in 2023

The wildly styled pickup was first shown three years ago with promises to revolutionize the segment. Tesla CEO Musk said its specifications would challenge the Ford F-150, Chevrolet Silverado and Ram pickups — with a starting price of just under $40,000 before shipping. And he promised the first units by late 2021. According to informal tallies, more than 1 million people have put down a $100 refundable reservation to hold their place in line for future orders.

But meanwhile, Rivian launched its R1T pickup last year to widespread industry acclaim, and Ford started selling the electric F-150 Lightning this year with a massive order backlog. Chevrolet’s Silverado EV is expected in spring 2023.

Musk has now committed to a mid-2023 launch for the Cybertruck at the new Texas factory. But he has said it will be far more expensive than originally promised. Tesla’s base Model 3 sedan with a single rear motor, a more inexpensive lithium-iron battery and less than 300 miles of range starts at nearly $50,000 with shipping. The Model S and X start at over $100,000.

AutoForecast Solutions estimates the Cybertruck will go into production in the fourth quarter of 2023. Output of the Cybertruck may depend on the availability of the 4680 battery, since the new cell is designed to drive more energy-hungry applications such as the Cybertruck and Semi. Tesla is significantly behind on its original timeline for mass production of the new battery cell. Musk said earlier this year that Tesla is not dependent on 4680 production this year but will need the new battery next year.

Like other Tesla vehicles, the Cybertruck is likely to receive regular minor updates and could go a decade before a new generation.