Battery-electric vehicles' market share could grow rapidly in the next decade, buoyed in part by industrial policy like the Inflation Reduction Act, supply chain experts said during an industry webinar Wednesday.
As demand increases, manufacturers will need to find a sufficient and affordable supply of the minerals needed to produce EV batteries. This need has emerged as a geopolitical issue, with global industrial policy makers seeking to secure supply chains.
Graham Evans, S&P Global Mobility's director of auto supply chain and technology, said during the webinar that BEV production globally could increase to about 44 million in 2030 from about 8.8 million in 2022, an increase in market share to about 45 percent from less than 10 percent.
The increase in demand for BEVs would translate to increased demand for batteries — to about 3.4 terrawatt hours from about 0.5 terrawatt hours — and, in turn, the raw materials needed to produce them. One terrawatt can power an estimated 70,000 homes for a year.
Meanwhile, demand for lithium could increase six times by 2030, cobalt by four times and nickel by seven times.
NMC, composed of nickel, manganese and cobalt, and LFP, composed of lithium, iron and phosphate, cathodes are the most popular battery chemistry technologies.