Q&A with electrification expert Jeremy Michalek

When President-elect Joe Biden takes office in January, his administration could chart a path for encouraging the adoption of electric vehicles in the U.S. Biden, a Democrat who ran against Republican President Donald Trump, has touted an aggressive, $2 trillion climate plan that includes tax credits for EVs and additional charging stations nationwide.

The plan could help automakers that are investing billions in new EVs. But challenges such as the future trajectory of oil prices, consumer preferences and congressional gridlock could interrupt the pace, according to Jeremy Michalek, director of the Vehicle Electrification Group at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh. Staff Reporter Audrey LaForest spoke with Michalek, 43, about how the shifting political climate in Washington could influence the path of electrification. Here are edited excerpts.

Q: How might a Biden administration sway the adoption of EVs?

A: The president-elect has announced actions that include the federal government increasing procurement of EVs, tightening fuel-economy standards that were weakened under the Trump administration and trying to get increased tax credits for EV purchases and funds for increasing public charging infrastructure. A Biden administration is likely to stop trying to prevent California from setting its own policies. California's policies — including mandates for automakers to sell electric and hydrogen vehicles, as well as stricter greenhouse gas emissions standards — have been some of the biggest drivers for electrification. The Trump administration tried to revoke that waiver and prevent California from setting its own standards. I expect the Biden administration will reinstate the waiver, and California will be a major driver in what happens on the trajectory of electrification.

Describe the relationship between Washington policies and the country's transition to EVs.

The fuel-economy standards have done a lot to push emissions down from the fleet, but when it comes to electrification, California's policies have played a larger role than Washington.

How much influence does Washington have over the next four years?

The federal government could have a substantial impact, but the larger factor is the government allowing California and the other states that follow California's policies to drive adoption through state policies. Those state policies have given the mandates that have required automakers to figure out how to sell EVs, and they've also set tighter emissions standards that have pressured automakers and the federal government to come to the negotiating table and work out what turned out to be stricter fuel-economy standards under the Obama administration. Unleashing California and the other states to pursue their policies may be the most consequential way the Biden administration changes the adoption of EVs.

Will Biden's EV/climate policies face limits?

It depends. If Congress is divided, then the plans that require congressional action, like new funding and tax credits, will likely face some resistance. There may be either a compromise plan or inaction. Whereas the actions that can be taken directly within the administration — the fuel-economy and greenhouse gas emissions standards, or federal procurement of EVs — those are things the administration could do without Congress.

What might a transition to EVs look like?

Future oil prices will matter a lot. We're making continuous progress on technologies — bringing costs down and making batteries last longer — but a breakthrough could change the game, and we just don't know if that's coming. Political changes — not just at the federal level, but at local levels — can affect these things. Cultural shifts in the way people understand the option of owning an EV and the symbolism of that. The symbolism really matters in how people think about adoption.