How COVID-19 has reshaped the mobility future

It took less than a year for the transportation world to be forced to reinvent. Here's a look at what has happened in the industry since COVID-19 hit.

Ride-hailing ridership

Use of ride-hailing services such as Uber and Lyft has dramatically slumped.

The two were already struggling to stay afloat before the pandemic, then took massive hits to their operations this year as people shied away from rides in confined, shared spaces.

Uber revenue dropped 29 percent in the second quarter, while Lyft reported a 61 percent drop.

The only reprieve for Uber has been its food-delivery business. The company said delivery revenue skyrocketed 103 percent in the second quarter. Lyft does not yet have a widespread food delivery business to offset its decline in trips.

From Paris to the Bay Area to New York City, the pandemic has forced a discussion about space in cities across the globe.

Municipalities increasingly are dedicating curbside parking spots to outdoor dining. They're setting aside space to provide safe walking areas for pedestrians in traditionally auto-heavy city centers. And they're installing more micromobility lanes and infrastructure for bikes and scooters, which enable easier social distancing and fewer points of contact than do other modes of transportation.

"We had micromobility growing prior to COVID, but that has now accelerated that growth," John Simlett, associate partner, strategy practice, at EY, said at a Shift virtual event this month. "And with the movement around putting in cycle lanes and changing space and making it feel safer for people, then we think that if that continues, the trend in micromobility will also continue and will be good for people and for the environment."

This transformation could shape cities for some time to come. "I think absolutely there's an opportunity to see some of these [changes] become lasting impacts on infrastructure," Kay Cheng, head of policy initiatives at Spin, Ford Motor Co.'s scooter service, said in September on the Shift podcast.

In the early days of the pandemic, traffic substantially decreased in major metropolitan areas across the globe as more people began to work from home and governments mandated that people shelter in place. Commutes dropped off, and some roads were unusually empty.

As lockdowns were lifted, people began to venture out more. They found solace in forms of mobility that didn't involve shared spaces, including cars and micromobility. Growing personal vehicle ownership, however, coupled with more bike- and pedestrian-friendly lanes on streets, comes with one major caveat: the possibility of more congestion.

Efforts to make roads and cities friendlier for bikes and scooters, if implemented in a way that forces cars to more-confined roadways, could cause more traffic and even discourage use of personal vehicles. But if scooters, bikes and pedestrians can cooperate on public roads with vehicles — and more consumers shift to using micromobility over cars — COVID-19 could be the cause of lasting changes to those morning traffic jams.

Personal vehicle ownership has seen something of a revival because of COVID-19. In many areas, people have been trading their subway passes for car keys as they look to avoid riding in shared public transportation.

This summer, the IBM Institute for Business Value surveyed more than 18,000 U.S. consumers who regularly used public transportation. Fifty-three percent of respondents said they would reduce or discontinue using those services in light of COVID-19. One in 4 respondents said they instead would use their personal vehicles as their only way of getting around.

In the age of COVID-19, companies focused on electrification and last-mile delivery have been the main recipients of venture investment in mobility technology, especially in the third quarter, according to PitchBook.

"Investor enthusiasm for electrification is strong right now," and "delivery companies continue to benefit from the pandemic-induced surge in online shopping and online restaurant and grocery delivery," PitchBook says.

Going public through special-purpose acquisition companies has been particularly attractive to electric vehicle startups, including Canoo, Fisker, Lordstown Motors and even the controversy-ridden Nikola Corp. Micromobility and online auto commerce have been boosted by the pandemic.

Shared mobility was seeing increased investor skepticism before COVID-19, given the companies' money-draining, capital-intensive business models, and the pandemic exacerbated this trend. But PitchBook says long-term "exposure to delivery, public-private partnerships and the ability to scale down efficiently" could benefit shared mobility as it relates to venture capital.