Will 2021 put chip in GM's sales crown?

General Motors has been the top-selling automaker in the U.S. for the past 90 years, a stretch that began in the Great Depression, spans 15 presidential administrations and has withstood countless crises, including the company's humbling bankruptcy.

The global microchip shortage of 2021 could be the hurdle that finally ends GM's nine decades of dominance on its home turf, as Toyota Motor North America sold more new vehicles for a second consecutive quarter.

For Toyota, September brought a 22 percent decline, with its top seller, the RAV4, plunging by more than half.

But Toyota managed a modest year-over-year increase in the third quarter overall, while GM's sales fell to its lowest three-month total since the grimmest days of the 2009 recession. GM entered the fourth quarter trailing Toyota by about 90,000 light vehicles and on pace for one of its lowest-volume years since the 1950s.

GM executives said they think the third quarter was the worst of the crisis for the company, and nearly all of its North American plants are scheduled to be back online this week after numerous lengthy shutdowns.

Still, analysts expect the industry to have more difficulty keeping up with consumer demand during the fourth quarter, particularly in October, as the chip shortage persists.

"There's probably more downside risk still because of the multitude of issues going on between port problems, transport problems, getting workers in plants, other parts shortages, chips," said Jeff Schuster, LMC Automotive's president of the Americas operations and global vehicle forecasting. "We've got a pretty long road before the industry gets out of this."

The inventory crunch drove U.S. light-vehicle sales down more than 10 percent in the third quarter among automakers that reported results last week. Ford Motor Co., which also has been disproportionately hurt by the chip shortage, reports sales this week, as do Mercedes-Benz and Jaguar-Land Rover. Automakers and dealers are preparing for a tough month as manufacturers continue to add plant downtime. LMC now expects 15 million U.S. light-vehicle sales this year, compared with 14.6 million last year. For 2022, the firm is forecasting 15.7 million.

For dealers, the crisis has turned the usual sales race into a race to restock empty lots.

"Worrying about selling cars is not an issue anymore. It's more about acquiring cars," said John Malishenko, COO of Germain Motor Co., which has dealerships in Michigan, Ohio and Florida and saw new-vehicle sales decline 22 percent last month.

Bob Carter, head of sales for Toyota Motor North America, said the Japanese automaker has been helped by strong supplier relations and adjustments it made after the 2011 Japan earthquake and tsunami.

"What we learned from the earthquake is we needed to carry more inventory of slow moving parts — and chips were one of the commodities we identified early on," Carter told Automotive News via email.

With three months to go, the sales race is difficult to predict, said Jessica Caldwell, executive director of insights for car-shopping site Edmunds. The market traditionally tilts toward trucks more at the end of the year, which should favor GM, she said. And Toyota has announced sizable production cuts for October.

"I'd say it probably is up for grabs, because we don't know how strong Toyota will start," Caldwell said last week on Automotive News' Daily Drive podcast. "Their surplus of inventory has really dwindled down."

Toyota, which historically has worked with inventory levels slimmer than GM, began October with fewer than 100,000 vehicles either at dealerships or in transit, the automaker told Automotive News.

GM has 128,757 vehicles at dealerships or on the way, but it has about five times as many U.S. franchises to spread its inventory across. A smaller dealership network and fewer vehicle combinations have given Toyota an edge, said Cox Automotive's senior economist, Charlie Chesbrough.

"Their sales are much more efficient," Chesbrough said. "There is a little bit less complexity that they have to deal with in this tight inventory environment."

Larry P. Vellequette contributed to this report.