Sales on pace to fall again in Dec.; retail stockpiles continue slow recovery

The widespread supply-chain bottlenecks that have left new-vehicle showrooms empty for months will put a big dent in December sales even as inventories slowly rebound.

Deliveries of new cars and light trucks are on track to drop an estimated 23 to 32 percent this month from a year earlier, Cox Automotive, TrueCar, J.D. Power and LMC Automotive forecast.

Core retail sales are projected to drop 20 percent to 1,105,800 from December 2020, J.D. Power and LMC said Thursday.

The final month of the year, fueled by heavy marketing promotions, outgoing model closeout offers and holiday deals, is traditionally a blockbuster one for automakers.

But while many automakers are advertising this year, there simply are not enough new vehicles available to meet consumer demand, prompting many shoppers to wait on the sidelines until selection improves and prices moderate.

Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power, said monthly retail stockpiles continue to improve and are tracking at just more than 1 million for the first time since July.

The seasonally adjusted, annualized rate of sales for December is forecast to come in at 11 million to 13 million, TrueCar, Cox Automotive, J.D. Power and LMC Automotive said, down 3.5 million from 2020, and down or off slightly from the 13.12 million rate in October and November.

Helped by strong first-half volume, U.S. sales are on track to rise slightly to 14.95 million, J.D. Power and LMC estimate.

Cox Automotive Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough said industry sales in the second-half of 2021 were the slowest in a decade.

"Demand is healthy, but supply and production disruptions kept the industry in check," Chesbrough said. "You can’t sell what you don’t have.”

Most automakers are scheduled to release December and fourth-quarter sales on Jan. 4. Toyota Motor Corp.,  even with double-digit volume declines in recent months, is on track to surpass General Motors, the market leader for decades dating to the Great Depression, in U.S. sales for all of 2021.

The lack of new cars and light trucks continues to drive prices to all-time highs and discounts to record lows.

King said average transaction prices in December are expected to reach a record $45,743 — the first time ever above $45,000 and 20 percent higher than December 2020, when prices eclipsed $38,000 for the first time.

The average manufacturer incentive per vehicle is on pace to hit a low for the month of December, at $1,598, a decrease of $2,291 from a year earlier.