OCTOBER U.S. SALES: Honda gains; Toyota, Nissan volumes fall on weaker car, truck demand; Hyundai gets bounce from expanded crossover lineup
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  2. October U.S. Sales
November 01, 2019 06:30 AM

Trucks drive Honda, Hyundai to Oct. gains; Toyota, Nissan slip

Hyundai gets 8% bump from new crossovers

David Phillips
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    U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales, October & YTD
    Fiat Chrysler, Ford and GM no longer release monthly U.S. sales data. They all now release quarterly. Automotive News will continue to report on automakers that issue monthly sales data.
      Oct.
    2019
    Oct.
    2018
    %
    change
    10 mos.
    2019
    10 mos.
    2018
    %
    change
    BMW 25,440 23,262 9.40% 257,867 248,327 3.80%
    Mini 2,962 3,166 -6.40% 30,715 37,359 -17.80%
    Rolls-Royce* 110 108 1.90% 1,100 1,079 1.90%
    BMW of N.A. 28,512 26,536 7.40% 289,682 286,765 1.00%
    Acura 13,957 13,624 2.40% 126,770 128,107 -1.00%
    Honda 117,486 108,558 8.20% 1,210,882 1,201,072 0.80%
    American Honda Motor Co. 131,443 122,182 7.60% 1,337,652 1,329,179 0.60%
    Genesis 1,935 372 420.20% 16,844 9,281 81.50%
    Hyundai brand 57,094 52,653 8.40% 563,450 545,445 3.30%
    Hyundai Motor America 59,029 53,025 11.30% 580,294 554,726 4.60%
    Kia Motors America 50,007 45,102 10.90% 513,605 497,144 3.30%
    Hyundai-Kia 109,036 98,127 11.10% 1,093,899 1,051,870 4.00%
    Jaguar 2,350 2,648 -11.30% 24,782 23,824 4.00%
    Land Rover 8,093 7,846 3.10% 74,732 72,979 2.40%
    Jaguar Land Rover N.A. 10,443 10,494 -0.50% 99,514 96,803 2.80%
    Mazda N.A. 19,520 18,673 4.50% 227,687 253,795 -10.30%
    McLaren* 180 116 55.20% 1,926 1,132 70.10%
    Mercedes-Benz 32,130 31,719 1.30% 285,188 285,126 0.00%
    Smart USA - 95 -100.00% 680 1,054 -35.50%
    Mercedes-Benz USA 32,130 31,814 1.00% 285,868 286,180 -0.10%
    Mitsubishi Motors N.A. 7,372 8,002 -7.90% 102,943 101,400 1.50%
    Infiniti 9,146 11,880 -23.00% 97,080 117,129 -17.10%
    Nissan 94,417 98,082 -3.70% 1,050,873 1,117,515 -6.00%
    Nissan Group 103,563 109,962 -5.80% 1,147,953 1,234,644 -7.00%
    Nissan/Mitsubishi 110,935 117,964 -6.00% 1,250,896 1,336,044 -6.40%
    Subaru of America 55,531 55,394 0.20% 580,860 558,812 3.90%
    Lexus 23,143 22,716 1.90% 232,694 236,340 -1.50%
    Scion - 1 -100.00% - 3 -100.00%
    Toyota 165,644 168,385 -1.60% 1,735,395 1,778,995 -2.50%
    Toyota/Scion 165,644 168,386 -1.60% 1,735,395 1,778,998 -2.50%
    Toyota Motor Sales U.S.A. 188,787 191,102 -1.20% 1,968,089 2,015,338 -2.30%
    Audi 19,172 16,056 19.40% 177,643 183,476 -3.20%
    Bentley* 169 165 2.40% 1,690 1,642 2.90%
    Lamborghini* 232 200 16.00% 2,320 1,195 94.10%
    Porsche 5,447 4,817 13.10% 50,509 47,443 6.50%
    VW 28,072 29,000 -3.20% 306,227 295,228 3.70%
    VW Group Of America 53,092 50,238 5.70% 538,389 528,984 1.80%
    Volvo Cars N.A. 8,807 7,327 20.20% 86,239 81,256 6.10%
    Other** 328 321 2.20% 3,280 3,210 2.20%
    U.S. LIGHT VEHICLE 748,744 730,288 2.50% 7,763,981 7,829,368 -0.80%
    *Estimate
    **Reflects Aston Martin, Ferrari and Lotus sales estimates.

    Honda and Hyundai posted U.S. sales increases in October while Nissan and Toyota fell as the industry – aided by richer incentives -- kicked off the fourth quarter with a shot at hitting 17 million total deliveries for a fifth straight year.

    Honda Motor Co. rode a sharp rise in light truck deliveries to a 7.6 percent advance, while Hyundai resumed its winning ways with an 8 percent gain. They and the rest of the industry are coming off a tough September, when quirks surrounding the reporting of Labor Day holiday sales contributed to an overall 12 percent decline.

    Toyota Motor Corp., however, wasn’t able to shake its September slump in falling 1.2 percent. Nissan Motor Co. was down 5.8 percent, its fourth decline in five months.

    For the second straight quarter, each of the Detroit 3 is skipping monthly releases. Ford Motor Co., General Motors and Fiat Chrysler will next report sales on Monday, Jan. 4, when their fourth-quarter tallies will be issued.

    The Automotive News Data Center, which estimates overall industry volume fell 1.8 percent last month, projected  deliveries dropped an estimated 12 percent at General Motors, which was hurt by a UAW strike, 1.9 percent at Ford Motor Co. and 2.8 percent at FCA US.

    U.S. light-vehicle sales were forecast to rise slightly in October, helped by an extra selling day and fatter discounts, according to analysts at Cox Automotive and J.D. Power, while ALG saw industry volume falling.

    Some analysts now say they expect the year’s sales to top 17 million. That would be above the consensus forecast at the start of the year, when few analysts thought the industry could sustain a streak above that mark that began in 2015.

    Industry volume was off 1.6 percent through September, according to the Automotive News Data Center. If that rate of decline holds, it wouldn’t be enough to drag the industry below 17 million.

     Company by company

    Honda Motor’s October increase was fueled by an 18 percent rise in light-truck deliveries at the Honda brand. Volume rose 8.2 percent at the Honda division and 2.4 percent at Acura. Overall, American Honda said car demand dropped 1.5 percent while light-truck demand surged 15 percent last month.

    At Toyota, sales fell for the second month in row in October, behind weaker car and truck deliveries. The company said overall U.S. sales dropped 1.2 percent, with volume falling 1.6 percent at the Toyota division and rising 1.9 percent at Lexus.

    Light-truck volume fell 2.4 percent at the Toyota brand, behind weaker demand for the Tacoma pickup, Sienna minivan and Highlander crossover, even as two other CUVs -- the RAV4 and C-HR -- set October sales records. Combined car sales at Toyota and Lexus dropped 2.8 percent while light-truck deliveries at the two brands fell 0.3 percent.

    A 14 percent decline in car sales led to the October decline at Nissan Motor The Nissan brand was down 3.7 percent and Infiniti fell 23 percent, for its 10th straight decline. Nissan continues to reduce fleet shipments and curtail discounts. The company's average incentive for October fell 3 percent, according to ALG. (See chart below.)

    Hyundai’s October U.S. sales rose 8 percent to 57,094, reflecting strong retail demand for the brand’s expanded crossover lineup.

    While car deliveries dropped last month, Hyundai said retail sales of three CUVs -- Santa Fe, Tucson and Kona -- each rose by 16 percent or more while the new Palisade crossover racked up deliveries of 4,357. October fleet shipments dropped 8 percent and represented 16 percent of all sales, Hyundai said.

    Volume rose 0.2 percent at Subaru, 11 percent at Kia and Mazda posted only its second increase of the year, with October deliveries rising 4.5 percent. Sales fell 7.9 percent at Mitsubishi and 18 percent at Mini. At the Volkswagen brand, volume fell for the fourth month this year with October deliveries off 3.2 percent.

    Among other luxury brands, deliveries rose 19 percent at Audi, 20 percent at Volvo, 13 percent at Porsche, 3.1 percent at Land Rover and 420 percent to 1,935 at Genesis. Jaguar volume fell 11 percent.

    Healthy fleet demand continues to offset weaker retail deliveries.

    In recent years, the final quarter has proved strong for industry volume, helped by year-end deals and holiday promotions. With consumer confidence still high, incentives rising and another interest rate cut this week, some analysts see a year-end bump on the horizon as shoppers put trade and recession worries aside.

    LMC this week raised its forecast for 2019 total U.S. light-vehicle sales by 50,000 units to 17.1 million, representing a decline of 0.9 percent from 2018’s 17.335 million tally.

    Still, while employment growth remains solid, new-vehicle affordability is undermining retail sales, analysts say. New-vehicle prices in October are on track to be the highest ever, exceeding $34,000 for the first time and up almost $1,300 from a year ago, J.D. Power said.

    The seasonally adjusted, annualized rate of sales is expected to come in between 16.9 million and 17 million, based on the average estimate of analysts from Cox Automotive, J.D. Power/LMC and True Car/ALG.

    The SAAR has topped 17 million five out of nine months this year, signaling the market remains healthy.

    Incentives

    The number of incentive programs offered in October was near record levels, with heavy discounts largely offsetting softening retail demand, Cox Automotive said. Incentives averaged $4,145 last month, up from $3,872 in October 2018, J.D. Power said. ALG estimates new-vehicle incentives averaged $3,767 last month, up 4.7 percent or $170, over October 2018, with the Detroit 3 and Nissan Motor Co. the biggest spenders among major automakers. (See chart below.)

    Odds, ends
    • There were 27 selling days last month vs. 26 in October 2018.
    • The average interest rate for a new-vehicle loan remained below 6 percent for the fourth month in a row in October, Edmunds said. The annual percentage rate on new financed vehicles averaged 5.7 percent in October, compared to 5.7 percent in September and 6.2 percent in October of 2018.
    • Days to turn, or the average number of days a new vehicle sits on a dealer lot before being sold to a retail customer, was 74 days through Oct. 20, J.D. Power said, up 6 days from October 2018.
    • Fleet shipments, a bright spot all year, are expected to total 260,000 units, down 3 percent from October 2018, J.D. Power said. And fleet volume is expected to account for 19 percent of total light-vehicle deliveries, unchanged from October 2018.
    • J.D. Power says prices of both cars and light trucks rose in October. But the average transaction price for cars (up 4 percent to $27,739) advanced at a faster clip than light trucks (up 3 percent to $36,474).
    Quotable

    “With the close of 2019 near, auto sales are expected to be above 17 million units for the fifth straight year. Attention is now shifting to 2020 and, while retail sales are expected to decline for the fifth straight year, the outlook has improved somewhat. Trade risk and vehicle affordability remain top concerns for the coming year, but the economy is expected to remain supportive with growth at a sub-2% level. A higher probability of a recession has been pushed out to 2021 or later.”
    --  Jeff Schuster, head of global vehicle forecasts at LMC Automotive

    October incentive outlays for U.S.
    Manufacturer Incentive per unit
    Oct. 2019 forecast
    Incentive per unit
    Oct. 2018
    YOY % change
    BMW $5,683 $5,549 2.4%
    Daimler $5,808 $5,806 0%
    FCA $4,835 $4,356 11%
    Ford $4,576 $4,400 4%
    GM $4,683 $4,229 11%
    Honda $2,167 $1,965 10%
    Hyundai $2,565 $2,669 -3.9%
    Kia $3,523 $3,749 -6%
    Nissan $4,196 $4,326 -3%
    Subaru $1,242 $1,165 6.6%
    Toyota $2,458 $2,495 -1.5%
    Volkswagen Group $3,824 $3,760 1.7%
    Industry $3,767 $3,596 4.7%
    Source: ALG
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