Subaru's streak ends, but it's come a long way

Subaru of America's growth has been rapid but also consistent: It reported year-over-year sales gains every month since late 2011.

But that streak, which Subaru had cultivated for 93 months, was snapped last week when the automaker posted a sales decline of 9.4 percent in September. Subaru pinned the drop on fewer selling days, low inventory levels and a brisk sell-down of previous-generation Legacy sedans and Outback crossovers.

There's a stark contrast between the Subaru of eight years ago and the Subaru of today.

In its last monthly decline, November 2011, Subaru sold 17,657 vehicles, a drop of 15 percent from November 2010. For perspective, Subaru sold 18,428 Outbacks in July 2019 alone.

It's worth noting that 2011 was not without its own set of challenges beyond Subaru's control as the brand was still recovering from the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami in Japan.

Back then, Subaru's U.S. lineup consisted of the Impreza, Legacy, Forester, Outback and Tribeca. Sales of the performance duo of the WRX and WRX STI were counted under the Impreza category at the time. For the year, Subaru sold 266,989 vehicles.

The Crosstrek, which has contributed significant sales volume, especially since its redesign for the 2018 model year, didn't go on sale until 2012. The low-volume BRZ coupe also went on sale in 2012.

And while Subaru did have a three-row crossover in the lineup in 2011, the Tribeca, it was a low-volume model, selling just 2,791 units that year. Production ended in 2014.

The rollout of Subaru's global platform began with the redesigned 2017 Impreza sedan and hatchback, which has been followed by a rush of fresh product to the lineup.

Subaru's second crack at a three-row crossover, the Ascent, which went on sale in June 2018, has quickly become a strong seller for the brand with 60,042 sales this year through September and sales of 96,253 units since hitting the market. The redesigned Forester also went on sale in 2018.

This year's additions included the new Crosstrek Hybrid, the redesigned 2020 Legacy and the redesigned Outback. The Outback is the brand's best-selling nameplate through September.

As the monthly streak rolled on and gained steam, Subaru's overall monthly sales ballooned. September's total was 51,659 units, an increase of 193 percent when compared with November 2011's total.

In August, Subaru sold 70,039 vehicles, an all-time record, and also the first time the automaker surpassed the 70,000 unit mark in one month.

And as Subaru's monthly sales results continued to grow, so did the automaker's annual results, which has kept another streak alive that began in 2009: consecutive yearly sales records.

While the monthly sales streak is dead, Subaru is well-positioned to meet its stated U.S. sales goal of 700,000 vehicles, which would be an increase of nearly 3 percent over 2018's sales of 680,135 vehicles. Through September, Subaru has sold 525,329 vehicles, an increase of 4.4 percent.

If Subaru's 2019 sales goal is achieved, it would mark the brand's 11th consecutive yearly sales record and 12th consecutive year of sales increases.

"The most important target is the annual target and then the annual target after that," Jeff Walters, Subaru of America's senior vice president of sales, told Automotive News in a July interview at the brand's U.S. headquarters. "That is much more important than any monthly target. We just try to be very sustained and steady with the way we approach the market. We don't want to be in and out of our incentives or marketing. We found that really helps our retailers be able to conduct their business. They've helped really carry us to make that monthly streak possible."

In terms of market share, Subaru stood at 2.1 percent in 2011. Through September of this year, that figure has grown to 4.1 percent.

Over the years, Subaru had a handful of months with razor-thin increases peppered in the monthly streak before it ended.

In one stretch between September and December 2017, Subaru's sales didn't increase over 1 percent. This included September, up 0.4 percent; October, up 0.5 percent; November, up 0.8 percent and December, up 0.3 percent.

In 2018, Subaru saw small increases in January (1.1 percent); August (1.4 percent) and December (1.9 percent).

This year, Subaru's closest month was June, when sales were up 2.8 percent. But the following two months were strong: July sales were up 7.9 percent and August sales jumped 9.3 percent.

Now that Subaru's streak has ended, Ram currently has the longest one in the industry at 17 months. Last year, Audi of America's streak of monthly gains stopped at 107 months in October 2018.