Recovery gains speed; Toyota, Honda, Hyundai cap solid Q1 with March surge

U.S. light-vehicle sales jumped 12 percent in the first quarter, capping a remarkable 12 months upended by a pandemic, with the industry's latest gains coming despite falling inventories caused by a worldwide shortage of semiconductor chips, forcing automakers to idle output.

Light trucks continue to drive the market, along with demand for luxury models -- up 20 percent -- that outpaced the broader market in the first quarter. Overall, robust retail volume continues to offset weak fleet shipments.

Toyota Motor Corp. sales rebounded sharply and American Honda, Subaru, Kia and Hyundai set U.S. records last month, signaling the industry’s robust advance from a pandemic-wracked early 2020, even as supply chain woes disrupt output.

In a broad measure of the market's newfound momentum, the seasonally adjusted sales rate came in at 18.08 million last month, Motor Intelligence said, aided by fiscal stimulus, tax refunds & record high use-vehicle prices. Cox Automotive pegged the March SAAR at 17.75 million, with chief economist Jonathan Smoke declaring "the retail market is back."

The SAAR bottomed out early in the pandemic at 8.74 million in April 2020 and has steadily recovered, remaining well over 15 million since September – and often topping 16 million.

First-quarter volume increased at General Motors and edged up 0.6 percent at Ford Motor Co. and 5 percent at FCA US.

At Toyota Motor, March sales jumped 87 percent from a year earlier, while volume more than doubled at brands including Acura, Subaru, Hyundai, Mazda and Lexus. Even long-struggling Nissan managed an increase in the first quarter. And American Honda's record March volume -- 148,538 cars and light trucks -- was 93 percent higher than a year earlier.

The latest gains reflect a mix of market strength as well as favorable comparisons to March 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic almost instantly shut down showrooms and consumer demand across the U.S.

This year, a new round of government stimulus is padding household finances, while employment and economic activity continue to bounce back as more Americans get vaccinated.

"Consumer confidence and spending will continue to increase due to stimulus, rising vaccination rates and the progressive reopening of the economy,” Elaine Buckberg, chief economist at General Motors, said in a statement. “Auto demand should remain strong throughout the year.”

GM said first-quarter sales rose 3.7 percent on strong retail and light-truck volume. Deliveries increased 11 percent at GMC, 35 percent at Buick and 23 percent at Cadillac. They slipped 1.9 percent at Chevrolet on weaker sales of cars and Silverado pickups.

Retail sales jumped 19 percent and fleet shipments fell 35 percent during the quarter, GM said.

At Ford, volume rose 0.7 percent at the Ford division, with sharply weaker car sales offset by stronger light trucks. Lincoln slipped 0.6 percent.

FCA's two biggest brands -- Jeep and Ram -- posted gains of 8 percent and 16 percent during the first quarter, while volume rose 32 percent at Chrysler and 25 percent at Alfa Romeo. Sales slumped 28 percent at Dodge and Fiat. Overall, retail deliveries jumped 25 percent during the last quarter, FCA said Thursday.

Toyota’s monthly surge was fueled by an 84 percent jump at the Toyota division and a 113 percent gain at Lexus. With car deliveries rising 6.4 percent and light-truck demand up 30 percent, Toyota Motors' first-quarter sales jumped 22 percent. The automaker easily outsold Ford in March and the first quarter and inched closer to the longtime market leader, GM -- 603,066 v. 639,406 -- during the first three months.

At American Honda, March volume rebounded 86 percent at the Honda division and 153 percent at Acura, with first-quarter deliveries up 16 percent.

"One year after the global pandemic began to take its toll on the auto industry, it’s great to return to form ...,” said Dave Gardner, executive vice president of national operations at American Honda.

Nissan Motor Co. said first-quarter sales rose 11 percent, with the Nissan brand up 15 percent and Infiniti off 25 percent. The automaker's car volume rose 6 percent and light trucks advanced 14 percent.

Subaru set a March sales record -- 65,726 units, up 102 percent -- as well as a first-quarter high of 160,426 units, a gain of 23 percent.

March volume rose 47 percent to 66,523 at Kia and 16 percent for the quarter.

Hyundai, meanwhile, soared 115 percent to 75,403, including a monthly record for retail deliveries. Fleet volume was off 58 percent. Hyundai sales rose 28 percent for the quarter.

At Hyundai’s Genesis, the new GV80 crossover continued to outpace the combined sales of the luxury brand's three sedans. The result: a 108 percent increase in first-quarter volume, to 8,222. March sales more than tripled.

The VW brand reported first-quarter sales of 90,853, up 21 percent, on robust crossover deliveries.

Volume increased 104 percent at Mazda last month, helping the automaker to a 23 percent gain for the latest quarter.

The seasonally adjusted sales rate for March was expected to rebound to 16.4 million to 16.5 million, forecasters said, up from 11.39 million in March 2020, when the pandemic took root, and 15.88 million in February.

GM estimated the retail SAAR in the first quarter of 2021 was 14.6 million and the total light-vehicle SAAR was 16.7 million.

Discounts continue to fall amid tight inventories and healthy retail demand for crossovers, SUVs and pickups. The average manufacturer incentive per vehicle in March was on pace to total $3,527, a decrease of $888 from a year ago, J.D. Power said. Among major automakers, only Subaru had higher first-quarter incentives, according to TrueCar. And Hyundai was the only company with higher discounts in March. (See charts below)

Inventory remains a major headwind heading into the key spring selling season.

According to Cox Automotive, current supplies at dealerships total 2.67 million cars and light trucks, down approximately 20,000 units from last week and the lowest point since mid-January. Stockpiles are 21 percent lower than this time last year. And days’ supply has dropped for four straight weeks and now stands at 67 days.

“The rate of sales is outpacing the industry’s replacement rate and will for the foreseeable future. We are looking at a lean situation in April,” Cox Automotive senior economist Charlie Chesbrough said. “The biggest problem will be pickup trucks. With limited availability, some customers may wait to purchase or buy something else.”

Toyota, Land Rover, GMC, Mercedes-Benz, Lexus, Chevrolet and Mini were among the brands with the lowest stockpiles, Cox Automotive said, while Buick, Infiniti, Mitsubishi, Jeep, VW and Dodge stockpiles were the highest in the industry.  

• There were 26 selling days last month, one more than in March 2020.
• The average number of days a new vehicle sat on a dealer lot before being sold last month was on pace to fall to 53 days, down 20 days from March 2020, J.D. Power said.
• Fleet sales are expected to total 180,200 in March, down 33 percent from March 2020 and off 51 percent from March 2019, J.D. Power said. Fleet volume is expected to account for 12 percent of all light-vehicle sales, down from 26 percent a year ago.
• The average price of a new vehicle was on pace to reach a first-quarter record of $37,314 — up nearly $3,000 from a year earlier and more than $4,000 higher than in the first quarter of 2019, J.D. Power said.

“Our fleet partners are looking for additional production. What that tells me is that the economy is rebounding, people are traveling again. A few months ago, the rental car companies saw an uptick in their urban rental business but airport business was still depressed. Now their airport rental business is starting to pick up and they’re looking for cars. We’re going to support them as best as we can. Inventory is tight. We’re not immune to the semiconductor shortage. We’ve got relationships with the fleet companies and we’ve got model year 2021 contracts that we still have to honor. But now, they are looking toward the future with model year 2022, so we’re going to continue to work with our partners as best as we can. This semiconductor shortage is not going to be out there forever, hopefully.”

-- Randy Parker, senior vice president for national sales at Hyundai Motor Amerca

“Higher-earning consumers aren’t holding back on purchasing bigger, more expensive vehicles, and dealers and automakers are holding firm on pricing because they can. These aren’t great market conditions for bargain shoppers, but consumers who have the advantage of a trade-in toward their next purchase might be able to look forward to getting a bit more for their vehicle than usual as demand for used cars continues to run high.”

 -- Ivan Drury, Edmunds’ senior manager of insights