U.S. November sales: Light trucks drive Toyota, Honda, Hyundai to gains
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  2. November U.S. Sales
December 03, 2019 06:12 AM

Light trucks drive Toyota, Honda, Hyundai to gains

Nissan Motor volume drops 3rd straight month

David Phillips
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    DAVID PHILLIPS

    U.S. sales of SUVs and crossovers at the Toyota division increased 14 percent last month, the company said.

    U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales, November & YTD
    Fiat Chrysler, Ford and GM no longer release monthly U.S. sales data. They all now release quarterly. Automotive News will continue to report on automakers that issue monthly sales data.
      Nov.
    2019
    Nov.
    2018
    %
    change
    11 mos.
    2019
    11 mos.
    2018
    %
    change
    BMW 31,213 28,330 10.20% 289,080 276,657 4.50%
    Mini 3,067 3,528 -13.10% 33,782 40,887 -17.40%
    Rolls-Royce* 110 108 1.90% 1,210 1,187 1.90%
    BMW of N.A. 34,390 31,966 7.60% 324,072 318,731 1.70%
    Acura 14,482 14,053 3.10% 141,252 142,160 -0.60%
    Honda 119,470 106,481 12.20% 1,330,352 1,307,553 1.70%
    American Honda Motor Co. 133,952 120,534 11.10% 1,471,604 1,449,713 1.50%
    Genesis 2,167 417 419.70% 19,011 9,698 96.00%
    Hyundai brand 60,601 57,083 6.20% 624,051 602,528 3.60%
    Hyundai Motor America 62,768 57,500 9.20% 643,062 612,226 5.00%
    Kia Motors America 50,504 45,101 12.00% 564,109 542,245 4.00%
    Hyundai-Kia 113,272 102,601 10.40% 1,207,171 1,154,471 4.60%
    Jaguar 2,958 3,197 -7.50% 27,740 27,021 2.70%
    Land Rover 9,514 8,547 11.30% 84,155 81,526 3.20%
    Jaguar Land Rover N.A. 12,472 11,744 6.20% 111,895 108,547 3.10%
    Mazda N.A. 24,374 20,660 18.00% 252,061 274,455 -8.20%
    McLaren* 180 118 52.50% 2,106 1,250 68.50%
    Mercedes-Benz 37,263 32,879 13.30% 322,450 318,005 1.40%
    Smart USA - 100 -100.00% 680 1,154 -41.10%
    Mercedes-Benz USA 37,263 32,979 13.00% 323,130 319,159 1.20%
    Mitsubishi Motors N.A. 8,188 7,688 6.50% 111,131 109,088 1.90%
    Infiniti 9,385 14,086 -33.40% 106,465 131,215 -18.90%
    Nissan 83,562 96,427 -13.30% 1,134,435 1,213,942 -6.50%
    Nissan Group 92,947 110,513 -15.90% 1,240,900 1,345,157 -7.80%
    Nissan/Mitsubishi 101,135 118,201 -14.40% 1,352,031 1,454,245 -7.00%
    Subaru of America 56,893 56,782 0.20% 637,753 615,594 3.60%
    Lexus 30,093 26,446 13.80% 262,789 262,786 0.00%
    Scion - - - - 3 -100.00%
    Toyota 177,764 163,977 8.40% 1,913,187 1,942,972 -1.50%
    Toyota/Scion 177,764 163,977 8.40% 1,913,187 1,942,975 -1.50%
    Toyota Motor Sales U.S.A. 207,857 190,423 9.20% 2,175,976 2,205,761 -1.40%
    Audi 20,618 17,082 20.70% 198,261 200,558 -1.10%
    Bentley* 169 174 -2.90% 1,859 1,896 -2.00%
    Lamborghini* 232 200 16.00% 2,552 1,395 82.90%
    Porsche 6,326 5,673 11.50% 56,835 53,116 7.00%
    VW 29,218 26,789 9.10% 335,445 322,017 4.20%
    VW Group Of America 56,563 49,918 13.30% 594,952 578,982 2.80%
    Volvo Cars N.A. 9,635 8,181 17.80% 95,874 89,437 7.20%
    Other** 328 321 2.20% 3,608 3,531 2.20%
    *Estimate
    **Reflects Aston Martin, Ferrari and Lotus sales estimates.

    Toyota Motor Corp., Honda Motor Co., Hyundai, Subaru and Kia posted higher U.S. sales in November, a sign that the industry is winding up the year with renewed momentum after an October lull.

    Sales rose 9.2 percent at Toyota Motor, for its second-biggest gain but only fourth increase of the year. Honda Motor deliveries spiked 11 percent, its second double-digit gain in a healthy year.  Hyundai tallied its 15th gain in 16 months, advancing 6.2 percent.

    Sales also increased at Subaru, Mazda, Volkswagen and Mitsubishi. But at Nissan Motor Co., demand skidded 16 percent as the company continued to scale back on fleet shipments and incentives to shore up retail volume and profits.

    The industry heads into December with a chance at topping the 17 million mark for a fifth straight year.

    "The U.S. consumer, motivated in part by low unemployment rates, continues to drive the economy forward," said Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive. "Strong labor and equity markets continue to provide the foundation for robust vehicle demand. Until either of those changes substantially, strong vehicle markets are likely to continue."

    Through 10 months, industry sales had slipped 1.6 percent from their year-earlier mark, according to Automotive News Data Center estimates. Higher fleet deliveries have offset a decline in retail volume all year.

    Overall industry sales were forecast to rise slightly in November, according to J.D. Power-LMC and ALG forecasts. Demand was helped by an extra sales day and weekend, heavy holiday promotions and rising incentives that reached record levels during the month.

    The seasonally adjusted, annualized rate of sales was forecast by analysts to come in at 16.9 million to 17.5 million. That would be a rebound from October’s 16.55 million pace, which was hampered by a 40-day strike at General Motors. The SAAR reached 17.5 million in November 2018 and has topped 17 million in five of the first 10 months this year.

    Company by company

    At the Toyota division, volume increased 8.4 percent to a November record of 177,764. Lexus was up 14 percent. Overall, Toyota Motor's light-truck deliveries rose 11 percent while car demand jumped 6.2 percent.

    Honda Motor’s increase stemmed from a 12 percent increase at the Honda division and a 3.1 percent rise at Acura. Car sales rose 2.2 percent while light-truck demand surged 18 percent. Through October, the company was up nearly 1 percent in a down market.

    An expanded crossover lineup and 19 percent increase in retail deliveries drove Hyundai to its 6.2 percent jump.

    Hyundai said its retail gains last month were led by three incumbent crossovers -- the Santa Fe (up 26 percent), Tucson (up 31 percent), and Kona (up 39 percent). The new three-row Palisade crossover, meanwhile, chalked up more than 5,000 retail units sold, a 21 percent increase over the previous month. The entry-level Venue crossover made its showroom debut with 290 deliveries last month.

    Hyundai said fleet shipments fell 33 percent in November, representing 15 percent of total volume.

    Kia, another brand with an expanded crossover lineup, posted its fourth double-digit increase of the year with a 12 percent rise in November volume.

    Nissan’s tumble marked its third straight decline and eighth dip of the year. Sales were down 13 percent at the Nissan brand and 33 percent at Infiniti. The struggling automaker, once eager to gain market share, is scaling back on fleet shipments and incentives to shore up retail volume and profits. Infiniti deliveries have now dropped 11 consecutive months.

    Among other automakers, November deliveries rose 0.2 percent at Subaru, 9.1 percent at the Volkswagen brand, 18 percent at Mazda and 6.5 percent at Mitsubishi. Sales at Mini, down 13 percent, slipped for the ninth month this year, but the latest decline was far less than the brand's performance in the first seven months of 2019.

    BMW, up 10 percent; Mercedes, up 13 percent; Audi, up 21 percent; Porsche, up 12 percent; Land Rover, up 11 percent; Volvo, up 18 percent; and Genesis, up 420 percent, were among other luxury brands posting double-digits increases in November volume. Sales dropped 7.5 percent at Jaguar.

    GM, Ford Motor Co. and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles report U.S. sales results on a quarterly basis; Tesla releases global deliveries once a quarter.

    Cox Automotive said Tuesday it expected the Detroit 3 to finish near or slightly below its forecast -- projected November declines of 5.5 percent at GM, 2.7 percent at Ford and 3.5 percent at Fiat Chrysler -- as lower car shipments continue to undermine their results.

    Without Detroit 3 results, sales rose 2.2 percent in November, according to the Automotive News data center.

    “GM fleet activity, and likely some retail, was significantly lower in October by tens of thousands of units as factory closures disrupted deliveries,” said Chesbrough. “The question for the market [in November] is whether these sales were simply delayed, replaced or canceled.”

    Incentive spending

    J.D. Power and LMC estimate average incentive spending was on pace to reach $4,538 per vehicle last month, an increase of more than 12 percent from November 2018 and the first time discounts topped $4,500.

    ALG estimates average November incentives rose 1.2 percent to $3,759, with the biggest discounts among major automakers offered by the Detroit 3, Daimler, BMW and Nissan. Many Honda dealers dangled red-tag discounts on older new vehicles and Buick offered 20 percent off MSRP.

    The increase in incentive spending is being driven by record levels of older-model vehicles still lingering on dealer lots, analysts say.

    Discount spending on 2020 model-year vehicles was on pace to reach $3,723 in November, an increase of nearly 13 percent from a year ago, J.D. Power and LMC said.

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    Our reporters were dispatched to dealerships across the U.S. to examine dealers' challenges and progress from right inside their stores.

    Odds, ends

    • There were 26 selling days last month v. 25 in November 2018.
    • Incentive spending on cars is expected to rise by $454 to $4,185 while average discounts on trucks, crossovers, SUVs and minivans rose by $503 to $4,658, J.D. Power and LMC estimate.
    • The estimated average transaction price for a new light vehicle in the United States was $38,393 in November, an increase of $387, or 1 percent, from November 2018, and $106, or 0.3 percent, higher from last month, Kelley Blue Book said.
    • Pickups, crossovers, SUVs and other light trucks accounted for 72.7 percent of new-vehicle retail sales through Nov. 17, the highest level ever for the month of November, J.D. Power and LMC said.
    • Days to turn -- the average number of days a new vehicle sits on a dealer lot before being sold to a retail customer -- was 76 days through Nov. 17, up 6 days from a year ago, J.D. Power said.
    • Fleet shipments are expected to total 261,800 units, down 3.5 percent from November 2018, or 18 percent of total light-vehicle deliveries, down from 19 percent last year, LMC and J.D. Power estimate.

    Quotable

     “Transaction prices [in November] rose only 1 percent as dealer discounts grew to move older inventory. As retail sales slowed by more than 2 percent this year, vehicles are spending more time on dealer lots, about 80 days on average, which is five days longer than a year ago and the highest level seen since 2017. As a result, there are more discounts and incentives, especially now that the year’s end is approaching.”

       -- Tim Fleming, Kelley Blue Book analyst

     “The monthly selling rates for light vehicles have given mixed signals during the second half of 2019, but the overall level remains robust. Volatility has replaced the typically strong selling rate pattern of the last five years. Other factors, such as increasing incentive levels and the ongoing trend of higher transaction prices, are adding to the existing uncertainty around trade.”

       --  Jeff Schuster, president of global vehicle forecasts at LMC Automotive

    Editor's note: An earlier version of this story misstated recent data for the seasonally adjusted, annualized sales rate. The SAAR was 17.5 million in November 2018. The November 2019 SAAR will calculated by the Automotive News data center.

    November incentive outlays for U.S.
    Manufacturer Incentive per unit
    Nov. 2019 forecast
    Incentive per unit
    Nov. 2018
    YOY % change
    BMW $5,101 $5,447 -6.3%
    Daimler $6,004 $6,542 -8.2%
    FCA $4,642 $4,381 6%
    Ford $4,353 $4,387 -0.8%
    GM $4,713 $4,586 2.8%
    Honda $2,232 $2,041 9.4%
    Hyundai $2,584 $2,532 2.1%
    Kia $3,549 $3,359 5.7%
    Nissan $4,324 $4,574 -5.5%
    Subaru $1,225 $1,146 6.9%
    Toyota $2,597 $2,572 1%
    Volkswagen Group $3,923 $4,044 -3%
    Industry $3,759 $3,716 1.2%
    Source: ALG
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