February auto sales: Ford, Toyota, Hyundai, Subaru, Kia, Mazda post lower volume; Genesis surges
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March 02, 2021 07:00 AM

Ford, Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, Subaru post lower volume

U.S. light-vehicle deliveries are forecast to fall 9 to 11 percent across the industry in February, in part because of 2 fewer selling days

David Phillips
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    DAVID PHILLIPS

    U.S. sales of the Ford Bronco Sport tallied 5,526 last month.

    U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales, February 2021
    Most automakers no longer release monthly sales and are excluded from this report.

     

      February
    2021
    February
    2020
    %
    change
    2 mos.
    2021
    2 mos.
    2020
    %
    change
    Ford 154,170 179,731 -14.2% 289,006 326,957 -11.6%
    Lincoln 7,664 9,830 -22.0% 15,405 18,645 -17.4%
    Ford Motor Co. 161,834 189,561 -14.6% 304,411 345,602 -11.9%
    Acura 11,553 12,264 -5.8% 20,057 21,494 -6.7%
    Honda 94,775 107,742 -12.0% 178,496 200,137 -10.8%
    American Honda 106,328 120,006 -11.4% 198,553 221,631 -10.4%
    Genesis 2,402 1,587 51.4% 5,216 2,986 74.7%
    Hyundai brand 48,333 53,013 -8.8% 91,727 95,757 -4.2%
    Hyundai Motor America 50,735 54,600 -7.1% 96,943 98,743 -1.8%
    Kia Motors America 48,062 52,177 -7.9% 93,027 92,532 0.5%
    Hyundai-Kia 98,797 106,777 -7.5% 189,970 191,275 -0.7%
    Mazda N.A. 26,008 28,385 -8.4% 51,267 52,006 -1.4%
    Subaru of America 48,300 51,695 -6.6% 94,700 97,980 -3.3%
    Lexus 21,426 21,139 1.4% 41,067 40,760 0.8%
    Toyota 161,625 173,013 -6.6% 308,216 319,257 -3.5%
    Toyota Motor N.A. 183,051 194,152 -5.7% 349,283 360,017 -3.0%
    Volvo Cars USA 9,164 7,841 16.9% 17,315 13,998 23.7%
    Total 7 Reporting OEMs 633,482 698,417 -9.3% 1,205,499 1,282,509 -6.0%

    U.S. light-vehicle sales fell at Ford, Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, Subaru and Kia last month, matching forecasts for a weaker February with fewer selling days and inclement weather dampening demand, even as the industry slowly recovers from the pandemic.

    In addition to sharply lower car sales, lower fleet shipments, reflecting depressed business and leisure travel, also appeared to hurt several automakers last month, analysts said.

    The seasonally adjusted, annualized rate of sales for February came in at a healthy 15.9 million, Motor Intelligence and Morgan Stanley said, within the range of 15.5 million to 16.3 million forecast from J.D Power/LMC, TrueCar and Cox Automotive. But the latest pace of sales is well below February 2020’s 17 million rate yet slightly ahead of the 16.83 million pace tallied in January. Cox Automotive on Wednesday estimated the February sales rate at 15.7 million.

    How automakers fared

    Volvo, one of the hottest brands, with 2020 sales rising 1.8 percent, bucked the broad downturn and racked up a 17 percent gain last month.

    Ford Motor Co. said Wednesday its February sales slid 14 percent, with retail deliveries off 1.8 percent and car volume down 65 percent on the discontinuation of several models such as the Ford Fusion and Lincoln MKZ and Continental.

    Deliveries fell 14 percent at Ford and 22 percent at Lincoln.

    Toyota Motor Corp. volume dropped 5.7 percent, with deliveries down 6.6 percent at the Toyota division but up 1.4 percent at Lexus. The Toyota brand was hurt by a 17 percent decline in car volume, an ongoing weak spot across the industry as Americans migrate to crossovers and other light trucks.

    Combined car sales at Toyota and Lexus fell 16 percent while light-truck demand edged down 0.3 percent.

    American Honda's volume dropped 11 percent, with sales off 12 percent at the Honda division and 5.8 percent at Acura. Combined Honda and Acura car deliveries were especially weak, falling 33 percent, with the Accord off 27 percent and Civic down 38 percent, while light-truck demand rose 5 percent, the company said.

    At Subaru, volume fell 6.6 percent, with Mother Nature delivering  "a multitude of challenges" during the month, Subaru of America CEO Tom Doll said in a statement.

    Deliveries dropped 8.8 percent at Hyundai and 7.9 percent at Kia in February, the companies said. Hyundai, which has enjoyed strong consumer demand for an expanded crossover lineup, said retail volume slipped 2 percent last month, with fleet off 47 percent.

    Mazda said U.S. sales dropped 8.4 percent last month, with car demand off 17 percent and light-truck deliveries down 6 percent, though CX-30 and CX-9 volume rose.

    Sales jumped 51 percent at Genesis, with deliveries of the new GV80 utility vehicle -- 1,283 -- topping combined volume of the brand's three sedans. 

    Forecast

    U.S. light-vehicle deliveries were forecast to fall 9-11 percent across the industry in February, in part because of two fewer selling days and one less weekend of sales. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, in a note to investors Tuesday, said February light-vehicle deliveries declined 13 percent across the industry. 

    February is usually one of the weakest months for sales but the market continues to rebound from the economic shocks of the pandemic, analysts say. Severe weather in parts of the country, notably record cold temperatures across Texas and the south, also disrupted the market last month.

    “Texas accounts for nearly 1 out of every 11 vehicles sold, so the short-term impact on sales from this event will be felt," said Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive. "However, it’s likely only a blip in the overall sales picture, as sales are expected to recover for the quarter.”

    Hyundai and Kia were also hobbled by an extended computer network outage last month that upended sales and financing deals.

    Randy Parker, head of national sales for Hyundai Motor America, said consumer demand remains strong and predicted sales will bounce back in areas affected by weather over the next several months.

    With COVID-19 vaccines becoming widely available and more government stimulus in the pipeline, analysts expect the recovery to gain momentum.

    “We're likely to see a very strong spring in the vehicle market," Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke said Wednesday. "The only limiters to the sale potential are going to be the tight supply and record prices.”

    DAVID PHILLIPS

    Hyundai said U.S. retail sales tallied 44,133 last month, with retail demand for crossovers up 8 percent. 

    Retail demand has driven the recovery, even amid tight stockpiles, as the economy continues to rebound from the pandemic. Morgan Stanley pegged February's retail SAAR at 13.2 million, up from 13 million a year earlier. But inventories remain under pressure because tight microchip supplies have forced many automakers to idle assembly plants.

    The average number of days a vehicle sat on a dealership lot before being sold last month was 53, J.D. Power said, down 18 days from February 2020.

    Incentives

    With inventories declining and retail demand strong, automakers and dealers continue to dial back on incentives. TrueCar estimates incentives averaged $3,356 last month, down 20 percent from February 2020. (See chart below.)

    Odds, ends

    • There were 24 selling days last month vs 26 in February 2020.
    • The average incentive was tracking at $3,562 per vehicle in February, a decrease of $614 from the year-earlier period, J.D. Power said. Incentives as a percentage of average MSRP stood at 8.2 percent last month, down two percentage points from February 2020, and the seventh straight month below 10 percent.
    • Average transaction prices are forecast to rise 6.6 percent, or $2,366, to $38,075, according to TrueCar.
    • Fleet volume is projected to tally 231,100 units last month, down 25 percent from February 2020 on a selling day adjusted basis, Power said. Fleet shipments are forecast to account for 19 percent of all light-vehicle deliveries, down from 25 percent a year ago.

    Quotable

    “We’re seeing fleet recovery slow down significantly year-over-year. February is typically a big month for fleet sales, but the continued reduction in travel by consumers is delaying fleet recovery.  This may be a sign that manufacturers are beginning to triage the ongoing microchip shortage by further pulling back from fleet and reallocating toward retail to help limit inventory shortages.”
        -- Nick Woolard, TrueCar analyst

    “While the ongoing strength of the sales rate is impressive, the transaction prices and profitability of those sales is nothing short of remarkable. The combination of strong retail sales, higher transaction prices and smaller discounts means that February 2021 likely will be one of the most profitable Februarys ever for both retailers and manufacturers.”
        -- Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power

    February incentive outlays for U.S.
    Manufacturer Incentive per unit
    February 2021 forecast
    Incentive per unit
    February 2020
    January 2021 % change
    vs February 2020
    % change
    vs January 2021
    BMW $4,497 $5,821 $5,177 -23% -13%
    Daimler $3,740 $6,246 $4,438 -40% -16%
    Ford $3,472 $4,918 $4,441 -29% -22%
    GM $4,710 $5,688 $4,944 -17% -4.7%
    Honda $2,290 $2,559 $2,363 -11% -3.1%
    Hyundai $2,205 $3,078 $2,558 -28% -14%
    Kia $2,825 $3,686 $2,999 -23% -5.8%
    Nissan $3,543 $4,749 $4,510 -25% -21%
    Stellantis $4,186 $5,093 $4,642 -18% -9.8%
    Subaru $1,401 $1,244 $1,505 13% -6.9%
    Toyota $2,363 $2,649 $2,616 -11% -9.7%
    Volkswagen Group $3,113 $4,435 $4,153 -30% -25%
    Industry $3,356 $4,177 $3,787 -20% -11%
    Source: TrueCar
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