Tesla, Ford, GM drive EVs to 5.6% of U.S. market

Legacy automakers launched exciting new electric vehicles last year, including the Ford F-150 Lightning and Kia EV6, but they barely dented Tesla's outsized market share as battery-electric vehicles surged to 5.6 percent of U.S. light-vehicle registrations from 3.1 percent a year earlier.

New EV registrations numbered 756,534 in 2022, for a 57 percent increase, Experian data showed. That dramatic growth occurred as the overall market slumped 11 percent in registrations to 13.6 million, according to the Experian data.

Tesla had 484,351 of the total — a 41 percent jump over its 2021 performance. The Tesla Model Y was the most popular EV in America last year with 228,312 new registrations, for a 35 percent increase.

While Tesla's EV share fell to 64 percent last year from 71 percent in 2021, the big takeaway from the data is that the automaker barely suffered in what was expected to be a big year for its legacy and startup rivals.

New models such as the F-150 Lightning and Cadillac Lyriq were well received, but production fell far short of demand. And big brands such as Chevrolet have yet to begin their planned EV onslaught, amid high hopes for models this year that include Chevy's electric Equinox and Silverado pickup.

"I think it's a matter of these other automakers getting inventory into the system and getting manufacturing ramped up accordingly," said Stewart Stropp, executive director of EV intelligence at J.D. Power.

"There is an appetite out across the new-vehicle shopper population for electric vehicles that are not Teslas," Stropp told Automotive News. "A lot of shoppers are as interested in the Chevys and Fords as in Tesla."

Ford was the No. 2 EV brand with a 7.5 percent market share. Chevrolet, with its budget-priced Bolt hatchback, captured 4.8 percent. Hyundai Motor Group brands followed, Kia with 3.8 percent and Hyundai with 3.5 percent. Audi did best among traditional luxury brands with 2.1 percent, the Experian data showed.

While legacy automakers and EV startups such as Rivian brought compelling products to the fight, Tesla has proven a difficult rival to dislodge from atop the charts. Among the top-five most popular EVs last year, Tesla had four, with its Model 3, Y, S and X. Ford's Mustang Mach-E was No. 3.

"Tesla has a tremendous first-mover advantage as it was the first brand to offer truly aspirational EVs to the early adopters," said Ed Kim, president and chief analyst at AutoPacific.

"Certainly, with so many competitors coming into the marketplace, Tesla's market share will recede, as it's mathematically impossible for its share to remain steady or grow with all the new EV nameplates arriving," Kim added. "But we do expect Tesla's sales leadership to remain."

Ford's EV registrations more than doubled last year to 56,464, Chevrolet had 36,245 for a 41 percent increase, Kia's more than tripled to 28,506 and Hyundai had a 142 percent rise to 26,826.

New-vehicle registration numbers do not perfectly track the sales data reported by automakers, but they provide a fair proxy since Tesla does not break out U.S. sales numbers. Registration data includes both retail and fleet vehicles.

Newly launched EVs for 2022 were expected to create greater competition in the market, but they got off to a slow start. Ford's Lightning pickup had 12,804 registrations for the year, BMW's iX crossover had 5,245, the Audi Q4 E-tron had 2,758, Toyota's bZ4X had 1,067 and the Cadillac Lyriq had 157.

Since EV demand generally outstripped supply last year, automakers are often competing to see who can build the most vehicles for customers on waiting lists, analysts said.

Tesla has both its original factory in Fremont, Calif., and a new plant still ramping up in Austin, Texas, that started Model Y production last year. Tesla's Cybertruck pickup is expected to launch out of Austin this year. All told, Tesla's EV factory capacity in the U.S. is now about 900,000 vehicles, the company said, mostly for domestic sales.

"Tesla is out front in terms of EV manufacturing capacity and they have been able to use that to their advantage," Stropp said.

Just over a year ago, Edmunds predicted that Tesla's EV market share would fall to 46 percent in 2022 "as new players enter the segment." But Tesla's demand stayed strong and production increased sharply.

Edmunds told Automotive News this week that it had expected higher production levels of new EV models from Tesla's rivals. Rather, it appears those automakers are going slow and playing it safe.

Edmunds, using its own calculation, now estimates Tesla's 2022 EV share at 58 percent.

"Auto companies selling EVs are amassing a large number of new — and affluent — customers to their brands, so they want to make sure they get it right from the jump and avoid the road of recalls, customer service complaints, etc.," said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds' executive director of insights.

Just this week, Ford temporarily halted production of the F-150 Lightning over a potential battery issue. Last year, Ford recalled 50,000 units of its electric Mustang Mach-E. Toyota recalled the bZ4X last year over a manufacturing issue that could cause the wheels to fall off. And Chevrolet has replaced faulty battery packs in its Bolt EVs.

Tesla's strongest competition last year came from a handful of EV models introduced in recent years that have benefited from increasing production levels.

Among the 10 most popular EVs last year, according to Experian, were the Mustang Mach-E, with a 50 percent jump in new-vehicle registrations to 38,469, and the Bolt, with a 41 percent increase to 36,245. Volkswagen's ID4 crossover had a 20 percent increase to 19,665 registrations. And Rivian's R1T pickup had 13,148.

Newer models with growing share include the Kia EV6 with 20,072 registrations and the Hyundai Ioniq 5 with 22,560. Also notable are the Mercedes EQS sedan with 9,628 and the BMW i4 with 8,705.

Only a few EVs saw sales fall last year, including the Porsche Taycan, with a 28 percent decrease to 6,803, and the Nissan Leaf, with an 18 percent drop to 12,115 registrations, Experian said.

With Tesla's competition posting such relatively low registration numbers, it's unlikely that the sales leader will be challenged for the top spot in the short term, analysts said.

"AutoPacific's forecast shows Tesla to continue being the dominant EV brand for at least the next few years," Kim said, "with sales set to continue growing significantly over our five-year forecast period."