Pickup slowdown: 5 key trends from January EV registration data

January registrations for new battery-electric vehicles offered talking points for all sides of the raging debate over electrification of the U.S. auto industry.

For EV optimists: U.S. registrations rose 15 percent compared with the same month last year — three times as fast as the market overall — according to data from S&P Global Mobility. For skeptics: That growth was sharply lower than the 52 percent rise for all of 2023, with segment leader Tesla joining the EV slowdown.

But there was nuance in the data.

That included a poor performance by electric pickups compared with the hype from a couple years ago; EV startup struggles after burning through billions in cash; and bright spots from Hyundai's stable of brands and German luxury automakers.

The January data offers insights into the U.S. market because most EV makers don't report monthly sales and Tesla only reports global sales and does so only on a quarterly basis.

Here are some key observations from the registration numbers, which are the most recent available.

The launch of battery-electric pickups, starting with the Rivian R1T in late 2021, was an important moment for the EV industry. Gasoline and diesel pickups are wildly popular in the U.S., and electrification of the segment generated optimism for sales growth.

But in January, registrations for the R1T fell 43 percent to just 762 pickups — despite lease promotions. R1T numbers fell 14 percent in the 2023 calendar year to 11,306, according to the data. Rivian Automotive cut the R1T's base price last month.

Ford did better with its F-150 Lightning as registrations rose 4.5 percent in January to 2,956 after nearly doubling in 2023 to 24,675, the data showed. But Ford is cutting back plans to expand Lightning production this year and reduced prices on some trims in January.

Chevrolet's Silverado EV pickup, which launched in the fall, had 213 registrations in January and 366 in 2023. Tesla's Cybertruck, which launched in November, had just 72 registrations in January and 29 last year. Both brands expect to ramp up production this year.

"The hype was misguided on electric pickups," said Karl Brauer, executive analyst at iSeeCars. "The most important truck component for truck buyers — the ability to get work done — is greatly compromised by an electric powertrain."

Driving range for electric pickups is typically cut in half when doing truck things, such as towing, and refueling times are much longer compared with gasoline or diesel, Brauer said. "The compromises proved too much for most truck customers. As a result, dreams of high-profit, high-volume electric truck sales have vanished over the past 12 months," he said.

Automotive startups that were once swimming in cash after listing shares on the stock market have burned through a lot of that money without making much of a dent in the U.S. market.

Rivian is the top achiever in the startup club, with a 46 percent rise in registrations in January to 3,818, S&P Global Mobility said. But only one of its models showed growth, the R1S crossover.

Besides the R1T pickup's decline, the automaker's commercial vans had a 46 percent decrease, the data showed. Rivian cut the base price of the R1S by $3,100 in February to $76,700 with shipping and rolled out new lease deals.

Fisker Inc., with 640 registrations for its Ocean crossover in January, has run into financial problems. The EV startup said Monday that it's pausing production for the next six weeks to rein in inventory and avoid possibly having to file for bankruptcy. The Ocean launched in June.

Lucid Motors registrations fell 40 percent in January to 357 Air sedans. That compares with an 86 percent increase in 2023 to 6,254 — significantly short of its forecast. Lucid cut prices last month on its base Air by $7,500 to $71,400 with shipping.

Vietnamese automaker VinFast, which started sales in California in March 2023, had 117 registrations in January and 265 for all of 2023, the S&P Global Mobility data showed.

"Rivian has enough production capacity and brand equity to survive, even if it means being rescued by a well-funded tech company," said Brauer. "All of the other EV startups are in a far more precarious position. If none of them survive, it won't surprise me."

Tesla CEO Elon Musk warned in January that the automaker's next growth wave won't come until late 2025, when it launches a new low-cost vehicle. Some Wall Street analysts expect little or no sales growth globally this year.

In the U.S., Tesla registrations rose 15 percent in January to 48,757 vehicles, and the company commanded a 54.8 percent share of the EV segment. But registrations of one of its two volume models, the Model 3 sedan, fell 23 percent. And Tesla has said the Cybertruck pickup won't fully ramp until next year.

Tesla's January growth was a step down from 2023, when its registrations rose 34 percent to a record 642,496 for the year.

Brauer said Tesla is facing its first demand crunch after being constrained by vehicle supply for most of the past decade.

"Tesla has enough loyal buyers and experience building EVs that they can go a long time, even with stagnant sales numbers," Brauer said. But, he added, "between ever-increasing competition, aging product and a general pullback in EV sales, the most successful car company of the past 10 years has to reconsider its long-term planning."

Hyundai Motor Group is second to Tesla in EV registrations when combining its three brands, Hyundai, Kia and Genesis. Together, they had 8,262 registrations in January and a combined 9.3 percent share of the segment from nine battery-electric models.

Hyundai brand registrations grew 79 percent in January, while Kia's and Genesis' numbers more than doubled compared with January of last year, the data showed.

Brauer said the only thing holding back the Hyundai group is the lack of U.S. EV production, which means it can't tap into government incentives, such as the $7,500 EV tax credit for consumers who buy rather than lease. But that will change with some production expected to start in the U.S. this year and additional capacity next year.

"I expect Hyundai and Kia to again be gobbling up EV market share and gaining on established automakers once those domestic plants open," he said.

German luxury automakers are carving out strong growth in the EV space, according to S&P Global Mobility's registration data.

BMW had a 47 percent increase in its battery-electric registrations in January to 3,564 among four vehicles: the iX crossover and the i4, i5 and i7 sedans. In 2023, BMW's registrations more than tripled to 42,997, the data showed.

Mercedes-Benz had an 87 percent gain in January registrations compared with the year-earlier month to 3,341 among five vehicles. For 2023, the brand's registrations more than tripled to 38,320.

Audi's January registrations rose 33 percent to 1,620, the data showed. Audi has seven nameplates in its E-tron lineup of EVs. In 2023, Audi registrations rose 54 percent to 24,700, S&P Global Mobility said.