U.S. auto sales: Toyota, Nissan, Honda, Hyundai down in September
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October 01, 2019 09:30 AM

Detroit 3, Japan 3 tumble, yet SAAR stays strong

David Phillips
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    DAVID PHILLIPS

    Hyundai's expanded crossover lineup represented 53 percent of the brand's U.S. sales volume last month compared with 44 percent in Sept. 2018.

    U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales, September & YTD
    Fiat Chrysler, Ford and GM have released quarterly sales numbers.
      Sept.
    2019
    Sept.
    2018
    %
    change
    9 mos.
    2019
    9 mos.
    2018
    %
    change
    BMW 27,467 25,908 6.00% 232,427 225,065 3.30%
    Mini 3,505 3,461 1.30% 27,753 34,193 -18.80%
    Rolls-Royce* 110 108 1.90% 990 971 2.00%
    BMW of N.A. 31,082 29,477 5.40% 261,170 260,229 0.40%
    Alfa Romeo 1,072 1,639 -34.60% 13,347 18,160 -26.50%
    Chrysler 10,595 14,683 -27.80% 93,966 127,156 -26.10%
    Dodge 36,052 42,101 -14.40% 332,245 359,728 -7.60%
    Ram 57,963 56,447 2.70% 512,368 416,661 23.00%
    Fiat 549 1,185 -53.70% 7,463 12,084 -38.20%
    Jeep 73,250 83,764 -12.60% 701,755 746,194 -6.00%
    FCA US*** 179,481 199,819 -10.20% 1,661,144 1,679,983 -1.10%
    Maserati 925 950 -2.60% 8,325 8,413 -1.00%
    Fiat Chrysler Automobiles 180,406 200,769 -10.10% 1,669,469 1,688,396 -1.10%
    Ford 164,291 188,328 -12.80% 1,728,611 1,803,373 -4.10%
    Lincoln 9,042 8,168 10.70% 78,849 75,280 4.70%
    Ford Motor Co.*** 173,333 196,496 -11.80% 1,807,460 1,878,653 -3.80%
    Buick 15,606 14,887 4.80% 157,855 155,606 1.40%
    Cadillac 12,274 12,898 -4.80% 115,695 113,240 2.20%
    Chevrolet 142,708 164,177 -13.10% 1,453,356 1,504,038 -3.40%
    GMC 40,275 43,266 -6.90% 418,066 395,924 5.60%
    General Motors*** 210,863 235,228 -10.40% 2,144,972 2,168,808 -1.10%
    Acura 11,098 13,511 -17.90% 112,813 114,483 -1.50%
    Honda 102,827 119,157 -13.70% 1,093,396 1,092,514 0.10%
    American Honda Motor Co. 113,925 132,668 -14.10% 1,206,209 1,206,997 -0.10%
    Genesis 1,559 419 272.10% 14,909 8,909 67.30%
    Hyundai brand 51,951 56,939 -8.80% 506,356 492,791 2.80%
    Hyundai Motor America 53,510 57,358 -6.70% 521,265 501,700 3.90%
    Kia Motors America 44,619 51,503 -13.40% 463,598 452,042 2.60%
    Hyundai-Kia 98,129 108,861 -9.90% 984,863 953,742 3.30%
    Jaguar 2,002 2,040 -1.90% 22,432 21,176 5.90%
    Land Rover 7,488 6,966 7.50% 66,639 65,133 2.30%
    Jaguar Land Rover N.A. 9,490 9,006 5.40% 89,071 86,309 3.20%
    Mazda N.A. 18,838 21,257 -11.40% 208,167 235,122 -11.50%
    McLaren* 180 115 56.50% 1,746 1,016 71.90%
    Mercedes-Benz 32,002 30,617 4.50% 253,057 253,407 -0.10%
    Smart USA - 98 -100.00% 626 959 -34.70%
    Mercedes-Benz USA 32,002 30,715 4.20% 253,683 254,366 -0.30%
    Mitsubishi Motors N.A. 7,722 7,705 0.20% 95,571 93,398 2.30%
    Infiniti 7,031 12,536 -43.90% 87,934 105,249 -16.50%
    Nissan 94,213 110,283 -14.60% 956,456 1,019,433 -6.20%
    Nissan North America 101,244 122,819 -17.60% 1,044,390 1,124,682 -7.10%
    Nissan/Mitsubishi 108,966 130,524 -16.50% 1,139,961 1,218,080 -6.40%
    Subaru of America 51,659 57,044 -9.40% 525,329 503,418 4.40%
    Tesla Motors* 12,000 21,700 -44.70% 93,000 107,300 -13.30%
    Lexus 18,860 24,599 -23.30% 209,551 213,624 -1.90%
    Scion - - - - 2 -100.00%
    Toyota 150,796 178,501 -15.50% 1,569,751 1,610,610 -2.50%
    Toyota/Scion 150,796 178,501 -15.50% 1,569,751 1,610,612 -2.50%
    Toyota Motor Sales U.S.A. 169,656 203,100 -16.50% 1,779,302 1,824,236 -2.50%
    Audi 16,130 19,350 -16.60% 158,471 167,420 -5.30%
    Bentley* 169 165 2.40% 1,521 1,477 3.00%
    Lamborghini* 232 224 3.60% 2,088 1,224 70.60%
    Porsche 5,213 5,102 2.20% 45,062 42,626 5.70%
    VW 26,947 30,555 -11.80% 278,155 266,228 4.50%
    VW Group Of America 48,691 55,396 -12.10% 485,297 478,975 1.30%
    Volvo Cars N.A. 9,323 8,715 7.00% 77,432 73,929 4.70%
    Other** 328 321 2.20% 2,952 2,889 2.20%
    U.S. LIGHT VEHICLE 1,268,871 1,441,392 -12.00% 12,730,083 12,942,465 -1.60%
    *Estimate
    **Reflects Aston Martin, Ferrari and Lotus sales estimates.
    ***Estimate for September, YTD is actual

    Editor's note: Automotive News will distribute the monthly U.S. Sales Report newsletter later Wednesday.

    Even though 2019 has been marked by six monthly U.S. sales declines, the toll on the industry had been relatively small, with demand slipping less than a percentage point through August.

    That changed in a big way in September, as the biggest Asian automakers recorded double-digit sales declines and estimates for the Detroit 3 showed double-digit drops as well. Still, the seasonally adjusted annual sales rate came in at a robust 17.16 million.

    Blame the calendar for some of the damage. September had two fewer selling days than the year-earlier month.  More critically, sales around the critical Labor Day weekend this year were counted as part of August’s tally.

    That quirk helped lift August’s industry total 10 percent ahead of their year-ago pace, the industry’s biggest monthly increase in almost three years.

    But that was given back in September, as sales fell 12 percent, according to Automotive News Data Center estimates that take into account third-quarter tallies reported Wednesday by General Motors, Ford Motor Co., and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles.  The SAAR, which factors out the calendar swings, topped 17 million for the fifth time this year.

    Ford Motor Co. posted a 12 percent drop for the month, according to Data Center estimates. Ford F-series sales dropped 13 percent during the month while Explorer sales plunged 47 percent, according to the estimates. 

    GM and Fiat Chrysler fell an estimated 10 percent. Ram was the only FCA brand to post a gain during the month, rising 2.7 percent to 57,963 deliveries. 

    Among other highlights: Nissan Motor Co. volume plunged 18 percent and Toyota Motor Corp. was down nearly as much for its biggest slide in eight years. Honda Motor Co., too, recorded its steepest drop in nearly as long.

    Hyundai ended a 13-month winning streak with an 8.8 percent setback. And for the first time since 2011, Subaru wound up in the losing column.

    Company by company in September

    At Toyota, volume dropped 17 percent last month, with sales off 16 percent at the Toyota division and 23 percent at Lexus. Toyota Motor said car demand dropped 16 percent, including double-digit drops for the Camry and Prius. Light truck demand skidded 17 percent.

    Toyota’s last drop this steep was in September 2011, when it was still reeling from the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami in Japan

    Nissan deliveries fell 18 percent. Volume was down for the ninth straight month – 15 percent -- at the Nissan division, while Infiniti collapsed 44 percent. The company continues to dial back on fleet sales and incentives.

    Honda’s decline marked its biggest drop since December 2011. It had a 15 percent slip in car deliveries and a 14 percent decrease in light-truck volume. Sales fell 14 percent at the Honda brand and 18 percent at Acura.

    Volume dropped 13 percent to 44,619 at Kia, ending a streak of 11 straight gains, and marking the brand's biggest drop since sales dropped 21 percent in Dec. 2017.         

    Subaru's U.S. sales fell 9.4 percent, snapping a streak of 93 consecutive monthly gains, even as the company hiked incentives. Subaru officials cited "the rapid sell-down of the last generation Legacy and Outback" for the end of the streak.

    Hyundai posted its decline behind weaker car deliveries, even as crossover volume rose 9 percent to a record 27,374 for the month.  The drop snapped a 13-month streak of year-over-year monthly gains.

    With an expanded crossover lineup, Hyundai has focused on retail volume and reduced fleet business.

    Among other automakers, September volume dropped 11 percent at Mazda but edged up 0.2 percent at Mitsubishi.

    Results were mostly positive for other luxury brands, with September volume rising 6 percent at BMW, 4.5 percent at Mercedes-Benz, 7.5 percent at Land Rover, 2.2 percent at Porsche and 7 percent at Volvo. Deliveries dropped 1.9 percent at Jaguar.  

    After falling in each of the first six months of the year, industry sales rose in July and August and had slipped an estimated 0.3 percent through August, according to the Automotive News Data Center.

    Through September, industry light-vehicle sales were down 1.6 percent to 12,730,083 units.

    Detroit 3, quarterly

    The latest quarter was the first in which each of the Detroit 3 reported on a quarterly basis.

    GM said all four of its brands posted gains in the July-September period, leading the automaker to a 6.3 percent increase to 738,638 deliveries. Chevy sales rose 4.6 percent to 507,273 units. GMC posted an 11 percent gain to 140,789 vehicles. Buick rose 10 percent to 50,615 vehicles. Cadillac gained 7.2 percent to 39,961 deliveries.  

    Ford said its U.S. sales for the third quarter fell 4.9 percent to 580,251 vehicles. Pickup and van sales rose 8.8 percent while utility-vehicle sales fell 10.5 percent and sedans plunged 29 percent. 

    FCA said third-quarter sales rose a fraction, by 527 vehicles, to 565,045. Ram was the only brand to gain ground, surging 15 percent, while Jeep deliveries dropped 2 percent. Chrysler, Dodge, Fiat and Alfa Romeo also recorded drops. 

    Big picture

    While employment gains, wage growth and moderate gasoline prices continue to support sales, higher prices and borrowing costs continue to weigh on consumer demand, analysts say.

    “As the global sales outlook continues to weaken, light-vehicle demand in the U.S. remains robust,” said Jeff Schuster, head of global vehicle forecasts at LMC Automotive. “This is despite the headwinds and uncertainty caused by rising tensions with Iran, the UAW strike at GM and ongoing trade concerns.”

    With some consumers priced out of the new-vehicle market, automakers have countered the decline in retail demand with higher fleet shipments.

    A 9.1 percent increase in fleet sales has largely offset a 4.7 percent decline in retail purchases and a 2 percent drop in leases through August, Cox Automotive said.

    Among brands, Ford, Ram, Mitsubishi, Volkswagen and Jeep have posted higher fleet shipments this year, Cox said, while fleet volume has dropped at Chrysler, Hyundai, Kia, Nissan and Chevrolet.


    Incentives

    Average incentive spending per unit in September is expected to reach $4,208, up from $4,014 last year, J.D. Power said. ALG estimates average discounts rose 4.9 percent to $3,975 last month from September 2018. (See chart below.)  

    Odds, ends

    • There were 23 selling days last month vs. 25 days in September 2018.
    • The average interest rate for a new-vehicle loan fell for the sixth month in a row and stayed under 6 percent for the third month in a row in September, Edmunds said. The annual percentage rate on new financed vehicles averaged 5.7 percent last month and a low for the year, compared to 5.8 percent in Sept. 2018.
    • Days to turn, or the average number of days a new vehicle sits on a dealership lot before being sold to a retail customer, was 75 days through Sept. 22, up 7 days from a year earlier, J.D. Power said.
    • September fleet deliveries are expected to total 236,900, an increase of 4 percent from September 2018, J.D. Power predicts. Fleet volume is expected to account for 19 percent of total light-vehicle sales, up from 17 percent last year.

    Quotable

     “All year long we’ve been talking about high prices and rising interest rates keeping shoppers on the sidelines, but in the third quarter those pressures eased up just enough to get consumers back in a buying mood. If this momentum continues, we expect a solid finish to the year.”

       -- Jeremy Acevedo, Edmunds’ senior manager of industry analysis

    “Automakers are in full sell-down mode, which means that car shoppers got to take advantage of some decent promotional offers in September. The cost of purchasing a new vehicle is still a lot higher than it was a few years ago, so it’s a positive sign that automakers and dealers are making the right moves to keep buyers coming back into the fold.”

       -- Jessica Caldwell, executive director of industry analysis at Edmunds

     

     

    September incentive outlays for U.S.
    Manufacturer Incentive per unit
    Sept. 2019 forecast
    Incentive per unit
    Sept. 2018
    YOY % change
    BMW $5,307 $5,676 -6.5%
    Daimler $5,372 $5,943 -9.6%
    FCA $5,055 $4,604 9.8%
    Ford $4,914 $4,776 2.9%
    GM $5,200 $4,451 17%
    Honda $2,336 $2,036 15%
    Hyundai $2,655 $2,869 -7.5%
    Kia $3,619 $3,792 -4.6%
    Nissan $4,589 $4,468 2.7%
    Subaru $1,860 $1,252 49%
    Toyota $2,743 $2,645 3.7%
    Volkswagen Group $3,607 $3,844 -6.2%
    Industry $3,975 $3,791 4.9%
    Source: ALG
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