2022 auto output expected to outpace sales

North American light-vehicle production will increase faster than new light-vehicle sales this year, according to an auto industry forecast by IHS Markit released last week.

The discrepancy reflects the dire shortage of new-vehicle inventory across the industry, depleted dealership lots and pent-up consumer demand for purchases.

While North American light-vehicle sales will grow by nearly 3 percent, or about 529,000 vehicles, this year, according to IHS, production in the U.S., Canada and Mexico will increase by about 16 percent, or nearly 2.16 million vehicles.

IHS further projects that North American factory output will increase again in 2023 — rising by nearly 2 million vehicles above the 2022 forecast. That would mean a production increase of about 4.1 million vehicles above 2021 levels in the next 24 months.

Automakers and retailers have been frustrated since 2020 by the twin problems of COVID-19's effect on assembly plant operations and staffing, and a worldwide shortage of microchips causing supply chains to halt.

Although the outlook is tenderly improving week by week, automakers are still carefully navigating those problems.

But the IHS forecast anticipates that North American light-vehicle sales will rise to almost 20 million in 2023, from 17,746,115 in 2021, and then stay at that level or above at least through 2027.

Looking out three years in the U.S. market, IHS anticipates that General Motors sales will rise to 2,748,277 in 2024, an increase of more than 546,000 vehicles over 2021.

It forecasts that Stellantis' U.S. sales will increase to 2,187,316 in 2024, a jump of 394,860 vehicles from its 2021 volume. The forecast shows Ford Motor Co. sales rising by more than 336,000 vehicles in 2024 to 2,227,539.

Toyota, which outsold GM in the U.S. last year, remains flat for the next two years in the IHS forecast, increasing by just over 47,000 sales in 2024.