17M U.S. sales? Early doubts fall away again
Skip to main content
Sister Publication Links
  • Automotive News Canada
  • Automotive News Europe
  • Automotive News China
  • Automobilwoche
AN-LOGO-BLUE
Subscribe
  • Subscribe
  • Account
  • login
  • HOME
  • NEWS
    • Dealers
    • Automakers & Suppliers
    • News by Brand
    • Cars & Concepts
    • Coronavirus Coverage
    • China
    • Shift
    • Mobility Report
    • Special Reports
    • Digital Edition Archive
    • This Week's Issue
    • China auto sales set to grow in '21, trade group predicts
      F&I Manager Amanda Lesikar, on the monitor, assists a customer at Bird-Kultgen Ford in Waco, Texas, over Microsoft Teams.
      At-home F&I can be tough, but success stories exist
      When the chips are down: Big Tech’s needs put dent in car output
      GHSP
      Mich. supplier showcases technologies to fight distraction, virus
    • GEELY grille rtrs web.jpg
      Geely teams up with Tencent on smart car technology
      China auto sales set to grow in '21, trade group predicts
      Hyundai Motor Group sets first overseas fuel cell plant in China
      Inside Huawei's push to develop smart roads that talk to driverless cars
    • Detroit Aerial Panorama during sunset
      Developing future workers to fuel growth in mobility
      Getting around in Las Vegas often involves long waits for a crowded monorail ride, below, or taking escalators up and down to cross elevated pedestrian walkways along the Strip.
      Las Vegas offers best and worst in transportation challenges
      In pandemic environment, RV industry ‘roaring back'
      Where is transportation headed?
    • Mobility experts say delivery needs are driving the near-term future of AVs, while charging infrastructure and cost are top EV challenges.
      Electrification, AV delivery among trends to watch
      GM stakes claim to commercial EV market
      Scott Keogh
      VW's Keogh: 2021 will be breakout year for EVs
      John Krafcik
      Why Waymo boss says ‘self-driving' needs to go
    • Elon Musk interview
      Tesla’s Model Y, on sale since March, is a showcase of EV technologies competitors will benchmark.
      Technologies of Electrification
      Cadillac’s Lyriq EV will be unveiled Aug. 6.
      Future Product Pipeline
      A CALL TO ACTION
    • Genesis' delayed relaunch back on track with new crossovers, upcoming EV
      A faster track to owning an AV?
      AN Research & Data Center adds more stats, insight
      Kia drops 'Motors' as EV push targets fresh crop of buyers
    • Access F&I
    • Fixed Ops Journal
    • Marketing
    • Used Cars
    • Retail Technology
    • Sales
    • Best Practices
    • Dealership Buy/Sell
    • NADA
    • NADA Show
    • Automakers
    • Manufacturing
    • Suppliers
    • Regulations & Safety
    • Executives
    • Talk From The Top
    • Leading Women Network
    • Guide to Economic Development
    • PACE Awards
    • Management Briefing Seminars
    • World Congress
    • Aston Martin
    • BMW
      • Mini
      • Rolls-Royce
    • Daimler
      • Mercedes Benz
      • Smart
    • Fiat Chrysler
      • Alfa Romeo
      • Chrysler
      • Dodge
      • Ferrari
      • Fiat
      • Jeep
      • Maserati
      • Ram
    • Ford
      • Lincoln
    • General Motors
      • Buick
      • Cadillac
      • Chevrolet
      • GMC
      • Holden
    • Honda
      • Acura
    • Hyundai
      • Genesis
      • Kia
    • Mazda
    • McLaren
    • Mitsubishi
    • Nissan
      • Infiniti
    • PSA
      • Citroen
      • Opel
      • Peugeot
    • Renault
    • Subaru
    • Suzuki
    • Tata
      • Jaguar
      • Land Rover
    • Tesla
    • Toyota
      • Lexus
    • Volkswagen
      • Audi
      • Bentley
      • Bugatti
      • Lamborghini
      • Porsche
      • Seat
      • Skoda
    • Volvo
    • (Discontinued Brands)
    • Virtual reveals (Sponsored)
      • GENESIS: 2021 GV80
      • KIA: 2021 K5
      • LEXUS: 2021 IS
      • NISSAN: 2021 Rogue
      • TOYOTA: 2021 Venza and 2021 Sienna
    • Auto Shows
      • Detroit Auto Show
      • New York Auto Show
      • Los Angeles Auto Show
      • Chicago Auto Show
      • Geneva Auto Show
      • Paris Auto Show
      • Frankfurt Auto Show
      • Toronto Auto Show
      • Tokyo Auto Show
      • Shanghai Auto Show
      • Beijing Auto Show
    • Future Product Pipeline
    • Photo Galleries
    • Car Cutaways
    • Design
  • OPINION
    • Blogs
    • Cartoons
    • Keith Crain
    • Automotive Views with Jason Stein
    • Columnists
    • China Commentary
    • Editorials
    • Letters to the Editor
    • Send us a Letter
    • Nikon turns lens on auto factory, build quality
      Bosch_information_domain_computer web.jpg
      Bosch, Continental battle to supply the brain of the connected car
      A victory lap for Detroit car design
      Stellantis_logo_blue_background web.jpg
      In 'merger of equals,' PSA is buying FCA, Stellantis prospectus says
    • view gallery
      1 photos
      A New GM
      view gallery
      1 photos
      The Bridge
      view gallery
      12 photos
      Leo Michael's best of 2020
      view gallery
      1 photos
      UAW Deal
    • Shifting gears away from the stick shift
      SEMA still a wonderful circus
      Penske still has plenty of races to win
      Ford's turn in the hot seat
    • January 12, 2021 | Automotive industry shined in 2020
      December 8, 2020 | In a year that lacked luster, All-Stars showed how to shine
      November 24, 2020 | Female talent in automotive is expanding
      November 17, 2020 | Automakers are getting creative with vehicle reveals
    • Jamie Butters
      Big auto show era truly over
      John Possumato
      Missing piece to the mobility puzzle: Helping carless people
      A show we love to hate ... but hate to miss
      Dave Versical
      Female CMO is new norm
    • Is sales recovery nearing an end?
      Beijing's uphill battle to boost EV sales
      Nasdaq-like Star Board poised to become key finance platform
      Virus outbreak upends ranks of EV startups
    • EV charging
      Time for U.S. to embrace the EV
      Ford's ‘Finish Strong' ad sets right tone for '21
      UAW settlement brings justice, voting rights
      Dealers should be treated as partners in EVs
    • Is banning ICEs in our best interests?
      GM should share EV risk with dealers
      Ready to buy Mirai, but where to fuel?
      From Toyota store to hydrogen highway
  • DATA CENTER
  • VIDEO
    • AutoNews Now
    • First Shift
    • Special Video Reports
    • Weekend Drive
    • AutoNews Now: Stellantis may reconsider Peugeot's U.S. return
      AutoNews Now: Toyota to pay $180M in U.S. emissions settlement
      AutoNews Now: NTSB to automakers: Improve EV emergency response guides
      AutoNews Now: Cadillac's electric Celestiq teased at CES
    • First Shift: GM said to be considering electric Corvette crossover
      First Shift: Subaru to slow output due to microchip shortage
      First Shift: Trump administration delays increased fuel-efficiency fines
      First Shift: Ford, NADA rethink political donations in wake of Capitol siege
    • N.J. dealer helps position peers for ‘electric revolution’
      DCH Millburn Audi
      'Finding the diamond in the rough': How 2020's No. 1 dealership retains talent
      Don Johnson Motors
      'Distinctive culture' cuts turnover, carves career paths at Wis. dealership group
      Why 2020 could be a record year for buy-sells
    • Why the pickup is the auto industry's 'battleground'
      Carlos Ghosn's quest to restore his reputation
      Why Ford must execute to avoid 'deep trouble'
      Why Honda is 'locked and loaded' for 2020
  • EVENTS & AWARDS
    • Events
    • Awards
    • Congress Conversations
    • Retail Forum: NADA
    • Canada Congress
    • Europe Congress Conversations
    • Leading Women Conference
    • Fixed Ops Journal Forum
    • ANE Shift
    • Shift: Mobility at a Crossroads
    • Shift: The Future of Mobility (CES)
    • 100 Leading Women
    • 40 Under 40 Retail
    • All-Stars
    • Best Dealerships To Work For
    • PACE Program
    • Rising Stars
    • Europe Rising Stars
  • JOBS
  • AN Solutions
  • +MORE
    • Leading Women Network
    • Podcasts
    • Webinars
    • In the Driver's Seat
    • Publishing Partners
    • Classifieds
    • Companies on the Move
    • People on the Move
    • Newsletters
    • Contact Us
    • Media Kit
    • RSS Feeds
    • Shift: A Podcast About Mobility
    • Special Reports Podcasts
    • Daily Drive Podcasts
    • AAM
    • Gentex
    • Reputation.com
    • Ricardo
    • Ricardo
    • Allstate: Want more from your F&I?
    • Ally: Navigating the future of automotive retailing
    • Amazon Web Services: Any place, any time, any channel
    • Amazon Web Services: The power of the cloud
    • Amazon Web Services: Universal translator: Harnessing sensor data to build better automotive software
    • Epic Games: Transforming the auto industry with digital assets
    • FTI Consulting: Crisis as a catalyst for change
    • Google: 5 trends shaping the auto industry's approach to a new normal
    • IHS Markit: Automotive loyalty in the wake of the COVID-19 recession
    • IHS Markit: Autonomous vehicles: Automotive and transportation disruption
    • IHS Markit: COVID-19: The future mobility delusion
    • IHS Markit: The battery electric vehicle (BEV)
    • Level5: 2020 Automotive E-Commerce Report
    • Naked Lime: Bring social reputation together as part of big-picture marketing
    • Wells Fargo Auto: Switching gears from LIBOR to SOFR
    • Ally: Do It Right
    • DealerSocket
    • Deloitte: Cyber everywhere: Preparing for automotive safety in the face of cyber threats
    • Facebook: The road to a zero-friction future
    • Guide To Economic Development
    • PayPal Credit: How consumer financing helps drive sales for online auto parts retailers
MENU
Breadcrumb
  1. Home
  2. Sales
December 08, 2019 12:00 AM

17M U.S. sales? Early doubts fall away again

Larry P. Vellequette
  • Tweet
  • Share
  • Share
  • Email
  • More
    Print

    Honda launched the subcompact Fit in the U.S. in 2006 as a new entry-level model and a third-generation model debuted in 2015. But changing consumer tastes undermined demand for the Fit -- U.S. sales peaked at 79,794 in 2008 -- and Honda said it could no longer make a economic case for the Mexico-built vehicle. The HR-V subcompact crossover, as well as certain Civic trims, will become Honda's entry-level model.

    The auto industry has always been cyclical, but in recent years, a whole new industry cycle has emerged.

    Call it the pessimism cycle — the annual belief, usually expressed very early in the calendar year, that auto sales will have fallen off by several hundred thousand vehicles by year end. Then that pessimism fades away as vehicles continue to sell and sell until it looks at the end of the year like the market might be flat, or even up.

    As it did last year and the year before, the pessimism cycle has returned to its late-year upswing as the industry recorded a seasonally adjusted annual selling rate of 17.05 million in November. It appears to be in line to finish the year having sold 17 million-plus vehicles in the U.S. for a record fifth consecutive year.

    Once again, the strong finish has so far materialized despite broad earlier predictions by analysts and industry executives alike that sales likely would settle back into the mid- to high-16 million range.

    Carter: Thought 16.7 million

    "To have another year at 17 million is a fantastic thing for the industry," Bob Carter, head of sales for Toyota Motor North America, told journalists gathered in Detroit last week. Carter admitted that he, like most of his industry counterparts, had predicted a market closer to 16.7 million for 2019. "Now it looks like the only question left is whether we'll be rounding up to 17 million or rounding down," he said.

    Though the three Detroit automakers did not report their November sales, most of the automakers that did release results rode continued strong demand for light trucks — pickups, vans, SUVs and crossovers — to sales gains in November, which had an additional selling day in the month compared with last year.

    Toyota Motor North America's sales rose 9.2 percent, the company's second-biggest gain but only its fourth increase of the year. American Honda's deliveries spiked 11 percent, the company's second double-digit gain in a healthy year. Hyundai Motor America tallied its 15th gain in 16 months, advancing 6.2 percent.

    Sales also grew at Subaru, Mazda, Volkswagen Group and Mitsubishi. But at Nissan Group, demand skidded 16 percent as the company continued to scale back on fleet shipments and incentives to shore up retail profits.Incentives continued to drive sales in November, especially at automakers with older inventory hanging around, said Brad Korner, general manager at Cox Automotive Rates and Incentives.

    "By our count, incentive program volume in November was at its highest point since July," Korner said, adding that 2019 is on track to set a record for the number of incentives available to consumers.

    Higher fleet deliveries have offset a decline in retail volume for much of the year to date, while average transaction prices have crept up about 1 percent year over year, according to data compiled by Cox Automotive.

    Light trucks rule

    Light-truck sales industrywide were up an estimated 6.5 percent in November and continue to represent nearly three of every four vehicles sold, while car volumes slid an estimated 11 percent in November, according to data and estimates compiled by the Automotive News Data Center.

    But the falloff in coupe and sedan sales was not universal; some models saw double- and even triple-digit year-over-year gains, including the Honda Fit (304 percent), BMW 3 series (95 percent) and Nissan Altima (37 percent).

    "While all-new utility vehicles continue to drive improvements throughout the industry, some automakers also saw a good month for their passenger car lines as well," said Stephanie Brinley, principal automotive analyst for IHS Markit. "These successes do not suggest a revival for sedans is in the offing, but we may see a new normal pace for the segment evolving. Whether car or SUV, the availability of new and refreshed products is being rewarded by consumers."

    With the busiest selling month of the year yet to go before 2019 ends, the industry has an estimated 15.5 million sales on the books, including estimates of sales from automakers who will report fourth-quarter sales after the first of the year. And while political uncertainty in an election year may weigh on 2020, Cox Automotive Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough says the U.S. auto market shows few signs of slowing down.

    "Strong labor and equity markets continue to provide the foundation for robust vehicle demand," Chesbrough said. "Until either of those changes substantially, strong vehicle markets are likely to continue."

    RECOMMENDED FOR YOU
    Jeep plans swift expansion in Japan
    Letter
    to the
    Editor

     

     

    Send us a letter

    Have an opinion about this story? Click here to submit a Letter to the Editor, and we may publish it in print.

    Recommended for You
    Genesis' delayed relaunch back on track with new crossovers, upcoming EV
    Genesis' delayed relaunch back on track with new crossovers, upcoming EV
    Jeep plans swift expansion in Japan
    Jeep plans swift expansion in Japan
    Kia drops 'Motors' as EV push targets fresh crop of buyers
    Kia drops 'Motors' as EV push targets fresh crop of buyers
    Sponsored Content: VIDEO: Ricardo’s U.S. head talks new tech, electrification and autonomous vehicles
    Sign up for free newsletters
    EMAIL ADDRESS

    Please enter a valid email address.

    Please enter your email address.

    Please verify captcha.

    Please select at least one newsletter to subscribe.

    See more newsletter options at autonews.com/newsletters.

    You can unsubscribe at any time through links in these emails. For more information, see our Privacy Policy.

    Digital Edition
    Automotive News 1-18-21
    THIS WEEK'S EDITION
    See our archive
    Fixed Ops Journal
    Fixed Ops Journal 12-14-20
    Read the issue
    See our archive
    U.S. SALES REPORT: Sign up for our quarterly newsletter and get U.S. sales data and news from the previous month sent to your inbox as soon as it's compiled.
    FIRST SHIFT WITH JENNIFER VUONG: Sign up for our morning newscast and get the news you need to start your day in a quick 4-minute video.
    Get Free Newsletters

    Sign up and get the best of Automotive News delivered straight to your email inbox, free of charge. Choose your news – we will deliver.

    Subscribe Today

    Get 24/7 access to in-depth, authoritative coverage of the auto industry from a global team of reporters and editors covering the news that’s vital to your business.

    Subscribe Now
    Connect With Us
    • Facebook
    • Instagram
    • LinkedIn
    • Twitter

    Our mission

    The Automotive News mission is to be the primary source of industry news, data and understanding for the industry's decision-makers interested in North America.

    AN-LOGO-BLUE
    Contact Us

    1155 Gratiot Avenue
    Detroit, Michigan
    48207-2997

    (877) 812-1584

    Email us

    Automotive News
    ISSN 0005-1551 (print)
    ISSN 1557-7686 (online)

    Fixed Ops Journal
    ISSN 2576-1064 (print)
    ISSN 2576-1072 (online)

    Resources
    • About us
    • Contact Us
    • Media Kit
    • Subscribe
    • Manage your account
    • Reprints
    • Ad Choices Ad Choices
    • Sitemap
    Legal
    • Terms and Conditions
    • Privacy Policy
    • Privacy Request
    Automotive News
    Copyright © 1996-2021. Crain Communications, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
    • HOME
    • NEWS
      • Dealers
        • Access F&I
        • Fixed Ops Journal
        • Marketing
        • Used Cars
        • Retail Technology
        • Sales
        • Best Practices
        • Dealership Buy/Sell
        • NADA
        • NADA Show
      • Automakers & Suppliers
        • Automakers
        • Manufacturing
        • Suppliers
        • Regulations & Safety
        • Executives
        • Talk From The Top
        • Leading Women Network
        • Guide to Economic Development
        • PACE Awards
        • Management Briefing Seminars
        • World Congress
      • News by Brand
        • Aston Martin
        • BMW
          • Mini
          • Rolls-Royce
        • Daimler
          • Mercedes Benz
          • Smart
        • Fiat Chrysler
          • Alfa Romeo
          • Chrysler
          • Dodge
          • Ferrari
          • Fiat
          • Jeep
          • Maserati
          • Ram
        • Ford
          • Lincoln
        • General Motors
          • Buick
          • Cadillac
          • Chevrolet
          • GMC
          • Holden
        • Honda
          • Acura
        • Hyundai
          • Genesis
          • Kia
        • Mazda
        • McLaren
        • Mitsubishi
        • Nissan
          • Infiniti
        • PSA
          • Citroen
          • Opel
          • Peugeot
        • Renault
        • Subaru
        • Suzuki
        • Tata
          • Jaguar
          • Land Rover
        • Tesla
        • Toyota
          • Lexus
        • Volkswagen
          • Audi
          • Bentley
          • Bugatti
          • Lamborghini
          • Porsche
          • Seat
          • Skoda
        • Volvo
        • (Discontinued Brands)
      • Cars & Concepts
        • Virtual reveals (Sponsored)
          • GENESIS: 2021 GV80
          • KIA: 2021 K5
          • LEXUS: 2021 IS
          • NISSAN: 2021 Rogue
          • TOYOTA: 2021 Venza and 2021 Sienna
        • Auto Shows
          • Detroit Auto Show
          • New York Auto Show
          • Los Angeles Auto Show
          • Chicago Auto Show
          • Geneva Auto Show
          • Paris Auto Show
          • Frankfurt Auto Show
          • Toronto Auto Show
          • Tokyo Auto Show
          • Shanghai Auto Show
          • Beijing Auto Show
        • Future Product Pipeline
        • Photo Galleries
        • Car Cutaways
        • Design
      • Coronavirus Coverage
      • China
      • Shift
      • Mobility Report
      • Special Reports
      • Digital Edition Archive
      • This Week's Issue
    • OPINION
      • Blogs
      • Cartoons
      • Keith Crain
      • Automotive Views with Jason Stein
      • Columnists
      • China Commentary
      • Editorials
      • Letters to the Editor
      • Send us a Letter
    • DATA CENTER
    • VIDEO
      • AutoNews Now
      • First Shift
      • Special Video Reports
      • Weekend Drive
    • EVENTS & AWARDS
      • Events
        • Congress Conversations
        • Retail Forum: NADA
        • Canada Congress
        • Europe Congress Conversations
        • Leading Women Conference
        • Fixed Ops Journal Forum
        • ANE Shift
        • Shift: Mobility at a Crossroads
        • Shift: The Future of Mobility (CES)
      • Awards
        • 100 Leading Women
        • 40 Under 40 Retail
        • All-Stars
        • Best Dealerships To Work For
        • PACE Program
        • Rising Stars
        • Europe Rising Stars
    • JOBS
    • AN Solutions
    • +MORE
      • Leading Women Network
      • Podcasts
        • Shift: A Podcast About Mobility
        • Special Reports Podcasts
        • Daily Drive Podcasts
      • Webinars
      • In the Driver's Seat
        • AAM
        • Gentex
        • Reputation.com
        • Ricardo
        • Ricardo
      • Publishing Partners
        • Allstate: Want more from your F&I?
        • Ally: Navigating the future of automotive retailing
        • Amazon Web Services: Any place, any time, any channel
        • Amazon Web Services: The power of the cloud
        • Amazon Web Services: Universal translator: Harnessing sensor data to build better automotive software
        • Epic Games: Transforming the auto industry with digital assets
        • FTI Consulting: Crisis as a catalyst for change
        • Google: 5 trends shaping the auto industry's approach to a new normal
        • IHS Markit: Automotive loyalty in the wake of the COVID-19 recession
        • IHS Markit: Autonomous vehicles: Automotive and transportation disruption
        • IHS Markit: COVID-19: The future mobility delusion
        • IHS Markit: The battery electric vehicle (BEV)
        • Level5: 2020 Automotive E-Commerce Report
        • Naked Lime: Bring social reputation together as part of big-picture marketing
        • Wells Fargo Auto: Switching gears from LIBOR to SOFR
        • Ally: Do It Right
        • DealerSocket
        • Deloitte: Cyber everywhere: Preparing for automotive safety in the face of cyber threats
        • Facebook: The road to a zero-friction future
        • Guide To Economic Development
        • PayPal Credit: How consumer financing helps drive sales for online auto parts retailers
      • Classifieds
      • Companies on the Move
      • People on the Move
      • Newsletters
      • Contact Us
      • Media Kit
      • RSS Feeds