Tesla's Model 3 is sometimes referred to jokingly as the "California Camry" for its ubiquitous presence in the nation's biggest car market, where the Toyota sedan has been the top seller.
But that Tesla reference is no longer a joke.
Model 3 registrations in the Golden State in 2022 surpassed those of the Camry — along with every other passenger car, according to the California New Car Dealers Association. In 2021, the Camry was the best-selling car.
There's more evidence that Toyota's No. 1 sales spot in the state is threatened by No. 2 Tesla: The EV maker's Model Y crossover was the top light truck in California new-vehicle registrations last year, beating Toyota's RAV4 for a second year in a row.
To be sure, the Toyota brand is still strong in California with a 17 percent share last year with 289,304 registrations. Tesla had 11 percent with 186,711 registrations.
But the sales trend is moving in Tesla's direction as it nearly doubled its market share from 2021 to 2022, according to data from the CNCDA association, while the Toyota brand and its Lexus division lost market share.
"Tesla buyers today are the historical Honda and Toyota buyers of the past," said Loren McDonald, CEO of the analysis and consulting firm EVAdoption. "They're switching over to Model 3s and Model Ys."
Tesla's California trajectory — and the brand's recent price cuts — suggest it will overtake Toyota in a year or two, McDonald said, marking a milestone with national implications. Tesla has already become the No. 1 luxury-segment automaker in the U.S.
Recent research from S&P Global Mobility said Toyota and Honda are losing buyers to Tesla and other EV leaders. And 2022 Experian data from California suggests why: Toyota had just 622 registrations for its only EV, the bZ4X, while Tesla had 187,280 across four models. Honda doesn't sell an EV.
"While vehicle pricing was a major concern in 2022, sales of pure EVs increased by over 50 percent from 2021," the dealers association said. "California is clearly doing its part to increase EV sales."
Toyota still has loyal buyers of its gasoline and hybrid vehicles, the dealers association data showed.
But Toyota's 2022 registrations fell 14 percent in the state last year while Tesla's rose 54 percent.