Rivian's EV registrations rise as startups Lucid, VinFast stall

Rivian Automotive's monthly new U.S. registration numbers improved in July compared with the first half of the year, while startup Lucid Motors and Vietnamese newcomer VinFast stalled in the growing electric vehicle market, according to Experian data.

Of the 26 EV brands in the January to July data, Rivian was No. 8 with 2.8 percent of the U.S. EV market, Lucid was No. 18 with 0.6 percent, and VinFast was No. 23 with 170 total registrations, Experian said.

Overall, EVs had a 7.2 percent share of the nearly 9.1 million new cars and trucks registered in the January to July period, regardless of fuel type, up from 4.9 percent a year earlier.

Despite the strong growth of EVs generally, newer startups have struggled to gain traction as market leader Tesla — with a 59.5 percent share of the market — cut prices this year. Legacy auto brands increased sales incentives to counter Tesla.

"Rivian is still the most viable non-mainstream EV maker out there, though I'm not convinced they will survive without outside help in the form of more investment or just a full purchase," said Karl Brauer, executive analyst at iSeeCars.

"The second half of 2023 will be the real time frame to watch, as everything from economic concerns to increased EV model launches are going to put more pressure on the startups," Brauer said. "The same basic story goes for Lucid, VinFast and Fisker. These companies are well behind Rivian in terms of establishing a buyer base."

Because most automakers don't report monthly sales — and Tesla only reports global numbers — U.S. new vehicle registration data serves as a reliable proxy. Experian's July data is the most recent available.

Rivian's 2,750 July registrations for the R1T pickup and R1S crossover marked a modest advance compared with its monthly average of 2,596 new registrations in the first half of the year, Experian data showed. Rivian said in August that production is ramping up at its Normal, Ill., factory after the automaker solved most of its supply-chain issues in the second quarter.

The startup's total new registrations from January to July numbered 18,359, not including the EDV commercial vans it makes for Amazon. The R1T had 7,611 new registrations in the seven-month period, while the R1S had 10,748.

Rivian kicked off production in September 2021 with the R1T, which gave the pickup a head start over the crossover, which is now being produced in higher quantities to satisfy a significant order backlog, Rivian said last month.

Ford's electric F-150 Lightning pickup, which started production in April 2022, had 11,883 registrations in the January to July period, beating the R1T for the top spot among EV pickups. Ford cut Lightning prices significantly in July, with the base version starting about $10,000 lower at $51,990 with shipping for the standard battery pack and 240 miles of range.

The R1T starts at $74,800 with shipping for the base, dual-motor version with the standard battery pack and an estimated 270 miles of range, according to Rivian's website. The three-row R1S starts at $79,800 with shipping for the dual-motor configuration with the standard battery and 260 miles of range.

In August, Rivian forecast 2023 production at 52,000 vehicles, including EDV vans that are about 20 percent of the vehicle mix. Rivian said it produced 23,387 vehicles in the first half and delivered 20,586.

Lucid Motors, which make the Air executive sedan, started production in late 2021. CEO Peter Rawlinson said early this year that it had solved previous manufacturing issues and was shifting its focus to marketing amid softening Air demand.

Lucid added 348 Air registrations in July, bringing its seven-month total to 3,789, Experian data showed.

The automaker reduced prices in August. As of mid-September, the base Air Pure model was advertised on Lucid's website at $83,900 with shipping, and the company was offering a $749 monthly lease.

Lucid's production forecast for the year is "more than 10,000 vehicles." It reported production of 4,487 Airs and deliveries of 2,810 in the first half of the year, leaving the automaker with significant inventory.

Among Lucid's challenges, analysts say, is competing with Tesla as the EV leader regularly reduces prices to spur sales and meet its global growth target of 50 percent per year.

Tesla cut the starting price on its own executive sedan, the Model S, in August after earlier reductions this year. As of mid-September, the Model S started at $76,630 with shipping, down from $106,440 with shipping last year.

In July's EV rankings, Lucid's slipped three places to No. 18 from No. 15 in June, falling behind Porsche, Subaru and Cadillac in new registrations for the January to July period. Porsche's Taycan sedan, the brand's only EV on sale, had 3,935 new registrations in the seven-month period, passing the Lucid Air.

Vietnamese automaker VinFast added 19 new registrations in July for its imported VF 8 two-row crossover, bringing the January to July total to 170. Early this year, VinFast said it had imported about 2,000 units of the crossover to California ports from Vietnam. The first shipment arrived in December 2022.

But according to Experian data, the VF 8 had one new registration in February, 16 in March, 66 in April, 45 in May, 23 in June and 19 in July.

VinFast began trading on the Nasdaq exchange in August through a merger with a special purpose acquisition company, or SPAC, and saw its stock price surge in the subsequent days and weeks.

The young automaker, which only started making internal combustion vehicles in 2019, has aggressively pursued global expansion plans that include building an assembly plant and battery factory in North Carolina to produce three models starting in 2025. In the meantime, it plans to import the three-row VF 9 crossover this year and the compact VF 7 next year.

Another young automaker, Fisker Automotive, had 30 new registrations for its Ocean midsize crossover in July for a total of 37 in the January to July period, Experian said. Fisker delivered its first Ocean vehicles in the U.S. in June.

Fisker this month said that more than 450 Oceans in the U.S. had been either delivered to customers or were in the process of being delivered, Reuters reported. The crossovers are manufactured in Austria by the vehicle assembly arm of Canadian automotive supplier Magna International.

Fisker ranked last of the 26 EV brands on the Experian new registration list for July due to its recent appearance in the U.S. market. The startup has plans to sell a midsize pickup based on the Ocean, as well as a smaller crossover in the U.S. by mid-2025.

For the rest of this year, Brauer of iSeeCars sees tough times for the startups as EV adoption is still in the early phases.

"I see far more forces pushing against electric vehicles sales than for them in the near term," said Brauer, citing higher interest rates and increasingly strict rules for automakers to qualify for the $7,500 federal tax incentive that has helped spur EV sales. "Gas prices have climbed in the past month, which helps EVs a bit, but it really takes dramatic swings in the price of fuel before people start running toward electric alternatives."