EV share hits 7.4% in U.S. through Q3 despite demand worries, registration data shows

Electric vehicle registrations grew at a robust pace through the third quarter of this year, with EV share rising to 7.4 percent of the U.S. market, according to Experian.

The most recent registration numbers show strong demand despite automaker concerns that EV supplies are getting ahead of sales volume.

With Tesla Inc. leading the way, EV registrations rose 61 percent in the January-to-September period to 852,904, Experian said. If the pace continues through the end of the year, 2023 will be the first time EVs break the 1 million mark in a calendar year.

A year earlier, EV share was 5.2 percent from 530,418 registrations, Experian said. At the time, Tesla had nearly two-thirds of the EV market as legacy brands and startups were still ramping up production. Tesla's share fell to 57.4 percent through September of this year as EV rivals chipped away at the leader.

Despite this strong showing, Cox Automotive warned that automakers are increasing production capacity and launching new models faster than consumers can absorb them.

"Most analysts expect a flood of new EVs in the coming three years, with the number of available products likely to double by 2027," Cox said in a report last month. "Of late, product availability has grown exponentially, while consumer acceptance has growth in a more linear fashion."

General Motors and Ford Motor Co. said in October they were slowing EV investments to balance supply and demand. Even Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who wants volume to grow by 50 percent per year, said he's in no rush to start construction on a Mexico plant because of short-term demand concerns.

The Experian registration data shows that EV share gains have cooled in recent months.

In January, EV registrations represented 7.1 percent of the market, while the January-to-September period saw registrations at 7.4 percent — a relatively modest gain. In contrast, EV share rose from 3.1 percent in 2021 to 5.6 percent in 2022, spurring automakers to add production capacity.

Because Tesla doesn't break out sales by country or by model, registration data serves as a proxy for its figures. Some other automakers don't break out all of their EV models in sales reports.

The nine-month data this year shows Tesla still dominating the EV segment, but with rivals chipping away at its share.

Tesla's registrations grew 41 percent in the January-to-September period to 489,454 vehicles, for an EV segment share of 57.4 percent, a drop of 8 percentage points vs. last year when it had 65.4 percent, Experian data showed.

In September alone, three of Tesla's four models had a year-on-year drop in registrations, with only the Model Y still growing. Tesla's total registrations for the month grew just 8.3 percent compared with September 2022, despite multiple price cuts this year to spur demand.

To be sure, the 12 percent drop in Tesla Model 3 registrations in September could be partially attributed to consumers waiting for the freshened version of the sedan that's already on sale in Europe and China. And Musk is launching the Cybertruck pickup on Nov. 30, joining a key vehicle segment.

Among brands making the biggest share gains in the January-to-September registration data are Chevrolet with 5.9 percent of the EV market compared with 4.1 percent for the same period last year, Experian said. That's good for second place in EV registrations behind Tesla.

Chevy's EV volume rose 133 percent in the nine-month period to 50,160, almost all of it from the affordable Bolt EV and its slightly larger platform-mate, the Bolt EUV. The brand also saw 125 registrations of its new Blazer EV and 47 registrations of its Silverado EV.

Ford, the No. 3 EV maker, had its share fall to 5.5 percent from 7.1 percent last year. Ford's registrations grew 24 percent to 46,547 vehicles through the third quarter, but that's well behind the overall pace of the EV segment.

Hyundai, at No. 4, saw share rise to 4.8 percent from 4 percent in the January-to-September period last year, while volume grew 93 percent to 40,612 registrations. Hyundai had four EVs in the registration data — the Ioniq 5 crossover, the Kona Electric, the Ioniq 6 sedan and a few of its discontinued Ioniq hatchbacks.

BMW was in fifth place with a 3.7 percent share of the EV segment, up from 1.2 percent last year. Registrations more than quadrupled to 31,209 vehicles compared with the same period last year. BMW had four models in the data — the i4, i5 and i7 sedans and its iX crossover.

EV startup Rivian, at No. 6, had a 3.5 percent share for the nine-month period, up from 1.9 percent last year. Registrations more than tripled to 30,240 vehicles for Rivian, including the R1T pickup, R1S crossover and the electric delivery van it makes for Amazon.

Mercedes-Benz increased its EV share by 2 percentage points to 3.2 percent year on year, while registration volume more than quadrupled to 27,484 vehicles from three nameplates — the EQS, EQE and EQB, Experian data showed. Mercedes' numbers are good for seventh place among EV brands.

Volkswagen saw its EV market share rise to 3.2 percent in the first nine months of the year compared with 2.1 percent last year, good for eighth place. Registrations of its ID4 crossover rose 145 percent to 27,001.

No. 9 is Kia, with a 2.7 percent market share, a significant drop from 4.6 percent in the year-earlier period. Kia's registrations fell 4.8 percent to 23,304 vehicles from two models, the EV6 and Niro crossovers.

Audi was 10th with a 2 percent EV segment share, down 0.3 percentage points. Audi volume grew 42 percent vs. last year to 17,229 vehicles. Registrations came from 10 models under the E-tron sub-brand.