EV sales will keep growing, J.D. Power projects, but issues remain

Electric vehicle sales will continue to grow in 2024 and beyond after crossing 1 million in 2023, J.D. Power projects, but that expansion is being restricted by geography and the fact that the public charging infrastructure isn't keeping up.

J.D. Power expects EV share will grow from 8 percent in 2023 to about 12 percent in 2024 and 18 percent in 2025. It is expected to grow to 46 percent in 2030 and 64 percent by 2035, but concerns over public charging infrastructure are holding it back.

"There is still widespread negative sentiment out there, particularly around the charging aspect of owning [an EV] among these shoppers who are telling us they are not buying an EV or definitely not going to buy an EV for their next vehicle, and four of the top five reasons why are related to charging," said Stewart Stropp, executive director of EV intelligence at J.D. Power. "The other is price."

Stropp, who spoke today at the J.D. Power Auto Summit in Las Vegas, said top-of-funnel search interest in EVs has plateaued at about 27 percent of shoppers, but EVs were both the top-selling car and the top-selling SUV in 2023, with Tesla's Model 3 and Model Y.

The public charging infrastructure is growing by about 20 percent per year, which pales in comparison with the more than 50 percent growth rate in the number of EVs in operation, Stropp said. It's not as great a concern currently, because about 85 percent of charging is done at home among those buying. But it's problematic over the long term because of how the perception of available public charging is being shaped. Nearly 1 in 5 charging attempts fails, he said, which "would be far worse" if it weren't for Tesla's low 5 percent fail rate.

"Charging infrastructure is improving, but we need it to improve at a faster clip," Stropp said.