California races to full EV sales by 2035

California's relentless push toward electric vehicle adoption created the "compliance car" that forced many automakers to at least dabble with the new technology over the last decade.

In 2014, then-Fiat Chrysler CEO Sergio Marchionne famously joked that he didn't want people to buy the electric Fiat 500e "because every time I sell one it costs me $14,000."

But California's EV vision, which is not without its detractors, is now paying off with record sales.

The bigger question is how the nation's biggest new-vehicle market gets to 100 percent zero-emission vehicles by 2035 and how many states will follow.

Nearly 15 percent of California's new-vehicle registrations in the first quarter came from battery-electric vehicles, which outsold hybrids at 11 percent, according to data cited by the California New Car Dealers Association.

Tesla sold more cars than any automaker except Toyota in the first three months of the year, the association said.

EVs have become so popular that charging stations on holiday weekends such as July 4 often have waiting lines. Even new and rare EVs such as the Rivian R1T pickup and Lucid Air sedan are not so rare on Golden State highways.

But getting to the state's mandated goal of all EVs by 2035 won't be easy.

A proposal by the California Air Resources Board released in April calls for the development of regulations that would push EV new-car market share to 35 percent by 2026 and continue that trajectory.

California is also seen as a trendsetter for emissions regulations, with 15 states adopting its rules in the push toward reducing tailpipe emissions and EV adoption.

For the purposes of defining "zero-emission vehicles," or ZEVs, California is including battery-electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, and it will allow 20 percent of sales to be plug-in hybrid vehicles with 50 miles of electric range to minimize gasoline engine use.

"CARB staff proposed an annual ZEV requirement that aligns with where the market is expected to be in 2026, and that continues to ramp up quickly to nearly 70 percent of new-vehicle sales by 2030," the agency said in its April draft report.

There are still several stages to the regulation process, including establishing enforcement mechanisms. Gasoline engine vehicles would not be banned from California roads after the 2035 date, but they could no longer be sold as new vehicles, with the exception of some plug-in hybrids.

At a June public hearing on the CARB proposal, there were worries on both sides of the debate. Some environmental groups want stricter rules, while dealers and automakers expressed concern about meeting consumer demand with ongoing supply chain disruptions.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom issued the executive order in September 2020 that requires sales of all new passenger vehicles to be zero emission by 2035, given that the transportation sector in general is responsible for half of the state's carbon pollution.

The European Union — which is much further ahead of the U.S. in EV adoption — struck a deal in June to eliminate carbon emissions from new cars by 2035. Similar to what's happening in California, automakers expressed concern over access to raw materials to meet the goals.

The sales leaders in California are also some of the biggest laggards in producing and selling BEVs. Market leader Toyota just introduced its first mainstream EV in limited quantities, the bZ4X. No. 3 Honda doesn't sell any full-electric vehicles.

In contrast, No. 4 Ford is looking to capitalize on robust sales of its Mustang Mach-E electric crossover and F-150 Lightning electric pickup. And Hyundai Motor Group — No. 5 including Hyundai and Kia — will have nine EV models on sale by next year.