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January 27, 2020 12:00 AM

GM envisions its AV as the next Model T

Hannah Lutz
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    Cruise AV
    The self-driving electric Cruise Origin sits low to the ground and has wide doors for easy entering and exiting.

    SAN FRANCISCO — What would transportation look like without the Model T?

    Cruise CEO Dan Ammann and his team pondered that question, and they envisioned a service that would get consumers around in a convenient, inexpensive and climate-friendly way.
    The result: "It's self-driven. It's all-electric. It's shared. And it's our answer to the question about what transportation system you'd build if you could start from scratch," said Ammann, former president of General Motors.

    Cruise, GM's self-driving unit, last week announced plans for a ride-hailing service and the Cruise Origin, a self-driving, electric shuttle that could help the company leapfrog Uber and Lyft.

    Those ride-hailing giants have consistently lost money, but once they master the puzzle of a network of self-driving vehicles without backup drivers, they say they'll be moneymakers. With GM as an owner and Honda as a major investor, Cruise could become a legitimate rival to Uber and Lyft in the race to commercialize AV ride-hailing.

    Still, each of the self-driving experimenters faces the same challenge: no federal regulatory framework. There's industrywide consensus that widespread AV use is further away than forecasters once thought because of the lack of regulation, along with technology and cost hurdles.

    Cruise's initial offering against Uber and Lyft would be its third-generation autonomous car.

    The Origin is distinct from the four generations of battery-electric vehicles Cruise built on the Chevrolet Bolt architecture. Those models look like a traditional car, although the fourth generation is missing manual controls, such as pedals and a steering wheel.

    Cruise's ride

    2013: Kyle Vogt founds Cruise Automation.

    March 2016: GM buys Cruise Automation for $1 billion.

    November 2017: GM says it will launch Level 4 autonomous vehicles at scale in 2019.

    January 2018: The 4th-generation Cruise AV without manual controls is unveiled as the company asks for a federal waiver.

    May 2018: SoftBank Vision Fund agrees to invest $2.25 billion in Cruise for a 19.6% stake, valuing the company at $11.5 billion.

    October 2018: Honda agrees to invest $2.75 billion in Cruise for a 5.7% stake, valuing it at $14.6 billion.

    January 2019: GM President Dan Ammann becomes CEO of Cruise.

    May 2019: Cruise gets $1.15 billion from a group of institutional investors, valuing it at $19 billion.

    January 2020: Cruise reveals the Origin and announces plans for a ride-hailing service that will start on its previous-generation models and eventually be available on the Origin.

    The Origin looks more like a shuttle or bus than a passenger car, with two benches that face each other, no steering wheel, pedals or space for an operator. The doors slide open, rather than hinge outward, and the entry is low to the ground and three times larger than that of an average car to make room for passengers to enter and exit.

    Cruise says there will be no surprises when the vehicle arrives and no delay in ordering a ride. Because they're autonomous, the vehicles run around the clock — with breaks for charging and cleaning — and with a designated fleet, customers know what kind of vehicle they'll get.

    Much as Henry Ford's iconic Model T turned the gasoline-powered automobile into a mass-market product, the Cruise Origin aims to make mobility-as-a-service a compelling consumer option.

    After it launches the ride-hailing service, Cruise also will use the vehicles to deliver cargo.

    "We're going to maximize the utilization of it. We'll use it in every conceivable way we can," Ammann said.

    GM has not said when production will begin. But at least one forecaster expects the Origin to be built at GM's Detroit-Hamtramck Assembly starting in 2022. The plant will also build four other EVs in the next few years.

    Facing the competition

    As Lyft and Uber also venture into the AV world, Cruise's close ties to GM and Honda might give it a leg up. Although GM is a minority shareholder in Lyft, experts say the stake won't prohibit Cruise from starting its own ride-hailing business.

    "The relationships with Honda and with General Motors are key here," said Sam Abuelsamid, analyst at Navigant Research. "They own the company; [Cruise has] that close working relationship already with companies who know how to design, develop and support the vehicles."

    An Uber spokeswoman declined to comment, but in 2018, Uber partnered with Toyota Motor Corp. on a mobility service business and concept vehicle similar to the Origin.

    Lyft did not respond to a request for comment.

    Ammann: Focus on lowered costs

    Automakers have decades of experience developing and improving the safety of their products. A vehicle failure can have dire consequences, which is much different from a mobile app malfunction.

    "You have to have a very different mindset in how you approach the design, the validation of the system, to really demonstrate that this is ready for production," Abuelsamid said.

    When GM acquired Cruise Automation in 2016, the tech company took on that safety mindset. Cruise's vehicles have to meet GM's safety requirements. In addition to seat belts, the Origin will have airbags that come down from the ceiling, Abuelsamid said.

    Ammann said that Cruise will own its fleet, but to consumers, it will look just like Uber and Lyft: a ride-hailing service with an app.

    But Mike Ramsey, an analyst at Gartner, doesn't see automakers being the long-term operators of ride-hailing services. "It doesn't work that way in any industry. No one builds it and operates it. There are too many opposing-force dynamics. Eventually, operators will be separate," Ramsey said.

    Cruise hasn't announced a launch date for the Origin or the ride-hailing service, but if Cruise goes to market before Uber and Lyft's AV models, the buzz likely will create a natural draw to Cruise, said Jessica Caldwell, executive director of insights at Edmunds. But in terms of ride-hailing alone, "Uber is the Xerox of the space," she said.

    So if all three come to the market with an AV solution within a similar time frame, there may not be a clear winner, she said.

    "The hurdle will be proving that this is a safe way to travel," she added.

    Awaiting regulations

    Self-driving technology industrywide continues to advance, even without a federal regulatory framework.

    Investing in mobility

    The Detroit-based automaker has made several investments in mobility as a service and alternative forms of ownership
    Lyft — GM invested $500 million in the ride-hailing service in 2016
    Maven — Car-sharing service launched in 2016; dialed back to 9 cities, from 17, last year
    Cruise — Acquired what was then Cruise Automation in 2016 for $1 billion
    Book by Cadillac — Launched in Manhattan in 2017, the offering ended in late 2018 and is being retooled for a pilot in February

    Most AV companies, along with Cruise, haven't announced launch dates for their self-driving vehicles. They are working on AV technology in the interim to be ready whenever NHTSA outlines the regulation around it. Ammann said the Origin needs "super-human" performance, which it hasn't yet achieved. To start, Cruise will test the Origin on private campuses.

    "The regulation issue is a problem for everyone and has to be settled at the federal level," said Ramsey. "The biggest issue is determining who does what. It's hard for states when they don't know what feds are going to do. It's a big barrier."

    In the meantime, it helps companies avoid rushing to market before the technology is ready, he said. Effectively, the regulatory delay "gives them some breathing room," Ramsey said.

    Lower costs

    The Origin's driveline was designed with GM's next-generation EVs, Ammann said. "We're really focused on getting the costs down. One of the ways we can do that is by piggybacking on millions of units of GM volume," he said. "By building this in the way we are, it allows us to be at an ultra-low cost where we can deliver them and make money at the same time."

    Cruise has focused on optimizing cost by taking out parts and technology unnecessary for a driverless, point-to-point commuting system. The Origin can reach highway speed, but "it doesn't need to have 150 mph top speed or a 0 to 60 time in three seconds," Ammann said. "We put the money in where it matters for the customer, and we take it out where it doesn't."

    Producing the Origin costs half as much as building a high-end electric SUV, such as the Tesla Model X, Cruise officials said.

    Ammann did not disclose what consumers would pay for the Cruise ride-hailing service, but he said the price point would entice consumers to use Cruise over the options they have today.

    "We all know that ride-share today is several dollars a mile. The personal-car ownership is a dollar a mile, depending on where you live. Our goal is to deliver something that can beat all of that," he said.

    A low price point and a better customer experience are essential to take Cruise's service to scale, Ammann said.

    Today's cars sit idle 95 percent of the time and rarely get to 150,000 miles, Ammann said. The Origin will be in motion most of the time and have a life span of more than a million miles, Ammann said.

    "All told, the average San Franciscan household driving themselves or using ride-sharing, will, on average, see up to $5,000 back in their pocket every year," he said. "At the same time, we'll have fewer cars clogging our roads, fewer cars piled up in our parking lots and fewer cars going to the scrap heap."

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        • Ricardo: Marques McCammon
        • Salty
        • T-Mobile
      • Publishing Partners
        • APCO HOLDINGS: Strategies for handling new F&I dynamics
        • APCO Holdings: Connected cars create new challenges and opportunities in F&I
        • APCO Holdings: The Wild Ride into the Future of F&I
        • Allstate: Compliance standards are changing. Here’s what you need to know.
        • Allstate: The ABCs of maximum F&I effectiveness
        • Ally All Ears Podcast Episode | The next evolution in virtual F&I
        • Ally All Ears Podcast | How F&I is driving dealership profits
        • Ally All Ears Podcast | building customer loyalty during challenging times
        • Ally All Ears Podcast | reducing friction in the purchase process
        • Ally All Ears podcast: Tips for maintaining sales and F&I momentum in a higher-interest rate environment
        • Ally and APCO: Adjusting to the changing F&I landscape
        • Ally: All Ears Podcast : EVs & the service department of The future
        • Ally: All Ears Podcast Protecting your dealership and inventory against weather-related events
        • Ally: All Ears Podcast Protecting your dealerships against cyber-attacks
        • Ally: All Ears Podcast | Building trust to attract and retain customers
        • Ally: All Ears Podcast | Staying competitive with vehicle acquisition
        • Ally: All Ears Podcast | Used Car Bubble
        • Ally: All Ears Podcast | practices you may incorporate into your F&I department
        • Ally: All Ears Podcast: Building a culture of inclusion at your dealership
        • Ally: All Ears podcast Does your dealership have a talent management strategy?
        • Ally: All Ears podcast | Does your dealership have a talent management strategy?
        • Ally: All Ears podcast | Tips to refresh your F&I practices in 2023
        • Ally: All Ears podcast| The used-car bubble is bursting. What’s next?
        • Ally: Tips to refresh your F&I practices in 2023
        • Amazon Ads: Marketing tips for electric cars and alternative-fuel auto advertisers
        • Ansira: Building a multi-pronged marketing program at your dealership
        • Big Ass Fans: Reducing risk and productivity loss with Big Ass Fans & evaporative coolers
        • CDK Global: Shoppers make clear the service features they want
        • Capgemini: Unlocking the next turn in the mobility roadmap
        • Capital One Auto: Auto dealers are here to stay. Here’s the next step in their evolution
        • Capital One Auto: The future of car buying
        • Champ: The history of titling and the cost of human error
        • Concentrix: How can customer data drive a better automotive CX?
        • Cox: Automation and the future of automotive retail
        • Cox: Boost sales and profit by adopting tactics of forward-thinking dealers
        • Cox: Successful tactics of forward-thinking dealers
        • Cox: Transformation toward eCommerce in automotive retailing
        • Cox: Transforming F&I for Automotive eCommerce
        • Deloitte: ACCELERATING DIVERSITY, EQUITY AND INCLUSION
        • Dent Eliminators: Automotive Reconditioning in Dealerships: Adapting to New Challenges
        • Easycare: Reinventing the service contract for EVs
        • Easycare: The importance of benchmarking your reinsurance performance
        • Effectv: Why “Customer Lifetime Value” Should Be the Auto Advertising Buzz Word for 2023
        • Experian, GroundfTruth and Spectrum Reach: Dealership marketing: Navigating automotive advertising in a post-pandemic world
        • Experian: Evolving identity beyond the “who” to enable the “how”
        • Experian: Three steps to adapting to constant change in automotive marketing
        • HAIG: BUY-SELL Q&A | Valuing dealerships In uncertain times
        • Haig Partners: Buy-Sell Q&A: Where the Automotive M&A Market is heading
        • Haig: BUY-SELL Q&A: How To Set a Record: Anatomy Of a Deal That Delivered
        • Haig: Buy-Sell Q&A | Advisors add value to sales process
        • Haig: Buy-Sell Q&A | Navigating partial dealership sales
        • Haig: Buy-Sell Q&A | growth drives value
        • Haig: Buy-Sell Q&A: Future-proofing your dealership
        • Haig: Buy-Sell Q&A: What is the value of an M&A advisor?
        • Hesai Technology: Lidar technology continues to gain momentum
        • Hyundai: Hyundai's vision for the progress of humanity
        • JM&A Group, Easycare, Assurant: Unlocking new opportunities in F&I with digital retailing
        • KEYSIGHT TECHNOLOGIES AND MAHLE INDUSTRIES INC.: Plugging Away on Batteries Without Getting Jolted
        • Kerrigan Advisors: Interview with Baxter Auto Group
        • Kerrigan Advisors: Interview with Hitchcock Automotive
        • Kerrigan Advisors: Interview with Keyes Motors
        • Kinsel Motors: A century-long legacy sold to Aoggett Automotive Group - Family’s perspective on the sale and the future of auto retail
        • LUXOFT: How are software-defined vehicles disrupting the automotive industry?
        • Luxoft: See it, hear it, feel it: How driving assistants grab your attention
        • NEXTEER AUTOMOTIVE AND ETAS INC: Software-defined vehicles will transform auto industry
        • OEC: How to understand what customers are saying when they’re not saying it
        • PACE: Electrification Technology: Once the supply chain gets over the shock, EVs offer opportunities
        • Pace Program Navigating advanced driver-assistance systems
        • Phone Ninjas: 5 Reasons you need to use phone scripts for your dealership
        • REYNOLDS & REYNOLDS: Creating great retail customer experiences
        • REYNOLDS AND REYNOLDS: Are you ready for the FTC Safeguard Rule changes? Take this quiz to find out
        • Rey and Rey: Automation and the future of automotive retail
        • Route One: Trends in vehicle buyer expectations
        • Routeone: Building a digital vehicle purchase path
        • Routeone: The benefits of robust dealership reporting tools
        • Siemens: The impact of vehicle electrification and connectivity on electrical system design
        • Spectrum Reach: Is Your Advertising Reaching All Generations of Car Buyers?
        • Spectrum Reach: Playing to win: How automotive dealers can capitalize on sports marketing
        • Spectrum Reach: Use data and the power of multiscreen TV to drive more traffic
        • Swiss Re: Insurers and car manufacturers: how to unlock the potential of true collaboration
        • Syntax: Digital factory-as-a-service: The fast lane to digital transformation
        • Text2Drive: Digital retailing meets the service department
        • Trimble: The future of autonomous vehicles speeds ahead
        • Truist: Capitalize on the changing structure of auto retailing
        • Truist: Prepare now for the next era of automotive retailing
        • URBAN SCIENCE: Parts & Service: Building the Service Operation of the Future
        • Urban Science: Promoting dealer-consumer alignment across continued industry evolution
        • Volta: Electric vehicles are here — Is your marketing department ready?
        • Walbridge: Video | Walbridge Chairman on how automotive companies are navigating the electrification boom
        • Western Digital: To Meet Consumer Demand, Automakers Must Double Down on Agile Development
        • Wipro: How generative AI becomes a catalyst in the softwarization of automobiles
        • Wipro: How to address safety and security for software-defined vehicles
        • Wipro: How today’s tech decisions drive tomorrow’s sales
        • Wipro: Software Helps Address the Affordability Challenge
        • Wipro: The Promise of Software-Defined Vehicles and the Cloud Car Ecosystem
        • Wipro: Video | Wipro CTO on how OEM's are leveraging software-defined vehicle technology
        • Notarize: What to expect for the future of auto sales
        • Seagate: Unlocking value from connected-car data
        • Amazon Web Services: AI-powered supply chain decision-making
        • Epic Games: Five ways in-car designs will change in the next five years
        • Haig Partners: How are dealerships being valued today?
        • Haig Partners: Dealership consolidation trends
        • Haig Partners: Dealership valuation trends
        • Haig Partners: Dealership succession planning
        • Ally: Navigating the future of automotive retailing
        • Google: How a century-old brand is transforming the auto industry
        • Car Wars: Is a Rise in Service Leading to Poor Customer Satisfaction?
        • Solera | DealerSocket: Four real-time integrations that can save your dealership time
        • Solera | DealerSocket: Time for a new pre-owned pricing tactic
        • Kerrigan Advisors: Blue Sky Update Q4 2021
        • Qualcomm: Trading multi-year design cycles for on-demand features and experiences
        • Twitter: EV adoption is happening...in an unexpected place
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