San Francisco is a city synonymous with next-generation technology and an epicenter for self-driving vehicle deployments.
The course of the latter may be altered Thursday.
That's when the California Public Utilities Commission is scheduled to decide whether Cruise and Waymo, the two major U.S. companies developing robotaxis, can expand their presence in the city.
Both have expended substantial financial and operational resources preparing for widespread commercial deployments in San Francisco.
But the commission has twice delayed decisions on their respective applications in recent months amid an increasing backlash on self-driving vehicles, resistance from labor unions and concern about the cars' performance in interactions with emergency responders.
Further delays or an outright rejection of their applications would have implications not only for continued AV developments in San Francisco, but could affect how self-driving vehicles are perceived and regulated in other markets.
"Denying robotaxis expanded operations might be seen as a blow to the technology in general," said Phil Koopman, a Carnegie Mellon University professor who has written safety standards for automated vehicles.
But, he said, "granting permission leads to a reasonable expectation that, without consequences, the current chaotic disruption of San Francisco roads will metastasize throughout the state."
Cruise vehicles have repeatedly clustered at intersections and blocked traffic, sometimes for hours. Vehicles from both companies have interfered with first responders, either blocking vehicles en route to emergencies, parking atop fire hoses or not adhering to the pleas of police officers to move out of the way.
Whether the commissioners evaluate the performance of the individual companies or lump them together as they consider the applications remains one unknown headed into Thursday's meeting.
But overall, the incidents have drawn consternation from officials with the San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency, who have asked the commission to gather more data on AV performance and approve additional service only when the vehicles reach safety and operational benchmarks.
"The industry has asked to go from very limited testing to infinite service," Jeffrey Tumlin, director of transportation at the San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency, told Automotive News.
"We all want to see that, but there are no stage gates in between and no relevant data is being shared," he said. "That causes us tremendous concern."
Tumlin and the San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency are in an unenviable position. The agency oversees streets and ground transportation in San Francisco. But autonomous vehicles are regulated at the state level with a two-pronged process: the California Department of Motor Vehicles issues permits for vehicles, and the California Public Utilities Commission handles the commercial-minded aspects of self-driving deployments.
The agency has no regulatory authority but receives complaints and concerns from residents and first responders. Tumlin said he learns about incidents from the media, law enforcement or 911 calls. He wants better communication, though he said such requests have gone unheeded for more than a year.
"I do not know of a single incidence where the industry has let us know, 'Hey, this thing happened, here's what we've learned and here's what we're doing to correct the problem,' " he said. "That's all we want as a municipality."
Cruise began driverless commercial service in certain San Francisco neighborhoods in June 2022 between 10 a.m. and 5 p.m. Its pending application seeks to expand throughout the city and offer service during daytime hours.
Waymo has tested autonomous vehicles in San Francisco since its inception in 2009. Currently, it carries passengers who are part of a "Trusted Tester" program and cannot charge for those rides. Its pending application seeks to start driverless commercial service in the city.
While they have waited for approval to expand operations, both companies have announced plans to add service elsewhere. Cruise said earlier this month it intends to start service in Miami and Nashville, while Waymo said Austin, Texas, will be the fourth city targeted for its service.
Waymo declined to comment ahead of Thursday's meeting, and Cruise did not respond to a request for comment. But the uncertainty in San Francisco has been frustrating, said Jeff Farrah, executive director of the Autonomous Vehicle Industry Association, of which both companies are members.
"These delays have been very unhelpful and very unwelcome," he said. "We're very hopefully that this will ultimately stick, and that these two companies can really move forward in San Francisco," he said.
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