By 2035, BEVs forecast to be majority of global sales

Battery-electric vehicles will account for a majority of new light-vehicle sales worldwide by 2035 as government mandates begin and automakers roll out new models, according to a forecast by Boston Consulting Group.

BCG anticipates 59 percent of all new vehicles sold worldwide will be BEVs by 2035, a double-digit upward revision from its estimate in 2021, which called for a 45 percent market share. Likewise, the consulting firm anticipates BEVs will make up 20 percent of worldwide sales in 2025, up from last year's forecast of 11 percent.

"We really think the switch has been flipped," said Aakash Arora, managing director at BCG. "It used to be a few years ago that for many companies, both OEMs and suppliers, EVs were a very important piece of their strategy but still just a project. Now, we're seeing that EVs are the company and that ICE is the project."

BCG's report released Thursday said BEVs are likely to benefit because of a significant shift away from internal combustion engine vehicles as well as a "lower uptake" of mild-hybrid vehicles across the globe.

By 2035, gasoline-powered internal combustion vehicles and those that run on diesel are expected to account for just 10 percent of global vehicle sales, compared with 85 percent in 2021, according to the report. The share of mild hybrids in the global marketplace is expected to grow from 3 percent last year to about 19 percent in 2025 before flattening.

BEVs, meanwhile, are projected to grow from a 6 percent share in 2021 to 20 percent in 2025, 39 percent in 2030 and 59 percent in 2035.

— John Irwin

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