UAW strike hasn't crimped Detroit 3 inventory levels

The 3-week-old UAW strike against the Detroit 3 so far has not significantly dented the automakers' U.S. inventory levels, though General Motors dealerships are the most at risk of running low, according to a new analysis.

Cox Automotive said Thursday that Chevrolet and Cadillac have the lowest inventory levels among the domestic brands, at 57 and 46 days, and some of the brands' most profitable nameplates are in tighter supply than that, according to Cox's vAuto inventory data.

Stellantis, by contrast, has the most inventory among the Detroit 3, Cox said, meaning it could be better positioned to withstand prolonged production stoppages.

The strike began Sept. 15 with just two weeks left in the third quarter. The UAW's decision to target specific vehicle segments rather than launch a strike at every Detroit 3 assembly plant has had a relatively muted impact to date, analysts said.

The UAW plans to give an update on bargaining Friday afternoon and could choose to order workers at additional plants onto picket lines. GM said it gave the union a new counteroffer Thursday as it attempts to avoid an escalation of the strike and tries to ultimately reach a deal.

GM, which reports U.S. sales on a quarterly basis, this week said it had 442,586 vehicles in stock or in transit Sept. 30. That was up 3.4 percent from midyear and up 23 percent from a year earlier.

A GM spokesperson said in an email that the automaker's U.S. inventory was at its highest point since late 2020. The company declined to share days' supply figures for specific models or comment on how the strike could affect inventory in the coming weeks.

Ford Motor Co. this week said its Sept. 30 inventory of 424,000 vehicles — a 67 days' supply — tops the 383,000 it had a month earlier and 315,000 a year ago. A spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment Thursday.
 

Stellantis did not disclose inventory levels in its third-quarter U.S. sales report. Cox estimated that Jeep, Dodge, Ram and Chrysler all have more than a 100-day supply. In a statement, a spokesperson told Automotive News the company's inventory of Wranglers and Gladiators, production of which is halted because of the strike, is "healthy," and that "the impact of a strike on our product availability would depend on the length of time of a production disruption."

"It all depends, of course, on how long this goes, because that's the magic million-dollar question that we don't have an answer to," said Stephanie Brinley, associate director of AutoIntelligence for S&P Global Mobility.

The UAW strike began as industrywide inventory levels were recovering after three years of production disruptions from the pandemic and shortages of microchips and other critical parts. Cox said Thursday that total U.S. supply of unsold new vehicles reached 2.21 million, the most since spring 2021, though that's still 35 percent less than before the pandemic in 2019.

Cox said the industry started October with a 60-day supply, about the same as last month. Cox based its days' supply estimates on the sales rate from Sept. 1 through Oct. 2.

"Inventory levels remain relatively stable, and, with the exception of some GM models, Detroit automakers have ample inventory for now to keep them operating through the coming month," Cox's senior economist Charlie Chesbrough, said in a statement. "Some brands have inventory buildup, so production disruptions will take time to feed through the distribution network. However, the strike could start to have an impact in the coming weeks if it continues."

The union is on strike at five assembly plants; three build midsize pickups and SUVs, and two make large crossovers. Affected nameplates include the Ford Bronco, Chevrolet Colorado and Jeep Wrangler.

GM also idled an assembly plant in Kansas that makes the Chevrolet Malibu sedan and Cadillac XT4 crossover because of strike-related parts shortages.

Some GM models in shortest supply also are among the most profitable, including the Chevrolet Tahoe and Suburban and the Cadillac Escalade. GM has just 20 to 30 days' worth of those full-size SUVs, said Michelle Krebs, Cox executive analyst. The UAW is not on strike at any of the plants that make the automakers' highly profitable full-size SUVs and pickups.

The companies have several levers they can pull if needed, including dialing back on fleet sales to free up vehicles for retail buyers, Krebs said.

Customers have become accustomed to short supplies at dealerships over the past four years, so some could choose to wait to buy the vehicle they want rather than switch brands, Brinley said.

"Right now today, they can still get one," she said. "We're not even at a point where they're completely out of trucks yet."

Michael Martinez and Vince Bond Jr. contributed to this report.