Can UAW leaders deliver on lofty promises?

UAW members have high expectations for their next contract with the Detroit 3 in part because the union's president, Shawn Fain, has told them they should.

Fain brashley declared that the UAW is making the most "audacious and ambitious" demands from the automakers in decades, then doubled down by saying he's serious about winning everything on a list that sources say could inflate the companies' labor costs by up to $80 billion.

He was warned by his own staff that seeking too many gains at once could complicate negotiations. Although some workers don't think the union is asking for too much in light of the sacrifices they've made over the years, there is some concern about a letdown if the UAW's new leaders can't deliver on everything members are looking for.

"My expectations are high, and I know the membership's expectations are high. That's how we set these demands," Fain told Automotive News. "These companies have made a quarter of a trillion dollars over the past decade, and they're continuing to make record profits. It's time our workers get their equitable share in this economy and they achieve economic justice."

One of the top agenda items is securing a future for a Stellantis plant in northern Illinois that has been idle since February.

For Nichelle Cruz, there is no bigger issue than the Belvidere Assembly Plant, which opened in 1965 and was a lifeline for generations of workers.

Cruz began working at Belvidere in 2009. She moved there after Chrysler's minivan plant in Fenton, Mo., closed.

Cruz has been living on unemployment benefits and supplemental company payments since Stellantis shut down Belvidere, which last built the Jeep Cherokee.

Her plan, if Belvidere doesn't reopen, is to transfer to a Jeep plant in Toledo, Ohio, where her husband has been working since being laid off from Belvidere four years ago.

She also wants to see cost-of-living adjustments in the next contract and said the UAW's demands shouldn't be viewed as extravagant.

"The demands are fair because we've been without for a long time," Cruz said. "We don't have COLA. Starting off at $15 an hour; we build vehicles. Everything you see on the road is all of us. You've got to start these people off at at least $20. Groceries are so high now it's ridiculous. We need COLA, we need job security, we need all of that."

Keith Fenwick, a 21-year veteran of Ford Motor Co.'s Louisville Assembly Plant in Kentucky, believes the "members' demands" announced by Fain are realistic relative to the automakers' record profits in recent years.

He's looking for substantial raises as well as COLA and said he will vote against any proposed contract that doesn't include raises for all — including retirees — and stop the companies from using temporary workers to save money.

"We were always told to sacrifice our pay and benefits and live to fight another day," he said. "That day has come."

Fenwick said there has been "a little worry" about what might happen if the leadership can't meet workers' expectations, but he believes the union is justified in what it's seeking.

"If you look at our pay rates over the years and compare [them] to corporate profits, there is plenty of room for us to be compensated better," he said.

A transition memo prepared by Fain's staff while he was running for president in March warned that "unrealistic expectations can result in despair/anger."

"Expectations have to match reality and where we are," the memo said. "We can't set unreasonably high bargaining or organizing expectations based on enthusiasm for the slate and for reform. We need to say: we are here for the long game, here are the objectives for this contract and the work of this contract is building to the next one."

Fain, in an interview this month, said he wasn't worried about disappointing the rank and file and being unable to get a contract ratified.

"I've promised nothing except we're going to work really hard to get the best agreement we can for our members," he said.

"If they're not happy with it and don't think it goes far enough, they have every right to turn it down. It's up to the companies to satisfy the demands of this membership."