Plants' big worry: Missing the demand because of chip crisis

BMW's revelation last week that — despite weeks of being seemingly immune to the global microchip shortage — it, too, will have to cut back production served as a reminder that the crisis continues playing havoc with the schedules of factories, executives and retailers.

"It is a game of intense maneuvering and adjustments to make sure that we don't shut an OEM line down — that is our focus day to day," said Peter Kosak, vice president of automotive at Bose Corp., a Tier 1 audio equipment supplier based in Framingham, Mass.

"That requires that we continually sense and respond to the day-to-day changes."

Kosak's outlook was captured in a new Automotive News Research & Data Center survey of 475 automaker and supplier executives, dealers and lenders. The survey found that industry leaders see the shortage having a severe impact on their own roles, their business overall and the industry.

More than 46 percent of respondents to the survey, conducted in mid-April, said the factor having the biggest impact on their business was not being able to keep up with customer demand. Second was missing scheduled production volumes, an issue with implications for profit forecasts as well as business staffing.

The crisis continues to pummel automakers, their suppliers and dealership lots. AutoForecast Solutions estimates 3.36 million vehicles could be lost from production globally. But the estimates continue to grow every week.

BMW last week reduced shifts at its plant in Regensburg, Germany, and paused Mini vehicle production at its factory in Oxford, England, for three days starting Friday, April 30.

Ford Motor Co. foreshadowed in its earnings call last week that it could lose half of planned production in the second quarter because of the shortage.

"We've really had to take some atypical measures and bear some atypical costs in the process," Kosak said. That includes expediting freight, relying on air freight and paying premium prices for production materials.

Bose's experience is common, according to the survey. It found that 15 percent have turned to alternative sources of chips, while 19 percent said they have shut down manufacturing.

Nearly 29 percent said they've prioritized manufacturing to focus on producing only components with the highest demand, while about 17 percent said they've prioritized manufacturing to focus on components least impacted by the shortage.

Amid the disruption, 14 percent of respondents said they are now considering additional technologies that could help them create early warning signs of potential supply chain risk.

Ford has been absorbing the crisis in recent weeks, especially at its pickup plant in Kansas City, Mo. And Ford accounts for about 10 percent of the business of Kay Manufacturing Co., a Tier 2 drivetrain components supplier based in Calumet City, Ill.

Kay had not been impacted by the shortage until recently, when it halted its two Ford lines, one in St. Joseph, Mich., and the other in Calumet City.

"We're just watching all of our costs right now," Kay President Brian Pelke told Automotive News. "But we know how to navigate these types of challenges, and we do so by watching our spend. We have a strong balance sheet.

"We're still small enough to be flexible. We're very lean, and we can adapt to the changing environment," he added. "Fortunately, we're not all Ford, so we have plenty of other lines that are still running."

But parts and material suppliers remain very concerned, they said.

Other issues they are fretting in the microchip shortage include the challenge of anticipating their production levels and unforeseen contractual problems that arise from missed deliveries.