Lucid faces tough Q1 earnings questions after sluggish sales

Lucid Motors is expected to face difficult questions about its future when the electric vehicle startup posts first-quarter earnings after the market close Monday.

The industry newcomer delivered just 1,406 vehicles in the January-March period, well shy of the pace needed to meet its full-year forecast of between 10,000 and 14,000 Air sedans from its Arizona factory.

Whereas Lucid suffered from supply bottlenecks last year for the Air, CEO Peter Rawlinson said in February that it now faces a demand shortfall. Its second vehicle, the Gravity crossover, is expected next year.

Lucid, which is majority owned by Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund, has seen production and delivery numbers fall from the fourth quarter of 2022.

Lucid reported 1,932 deliveries and a net loss of $473 million for the October-December period. Zacks Equity Research said on May 1 it expects Lucid to post a higher net loss for the first quarter of this year.

In the windup to Monday's earnings call, investors submitted questions for consideration. Among them: What's the plan for the demand shortage? When will more affordable models be made? And if there's a recession, does Lucid have enough cash to survive it?

The most popular question, with more than 14,000 votes, took issue with Lucid's projections back in 2021, prior to listing shares on the stock market. Lucid said at the time that it expected to achieve about 49,000 deliveries in 2023 across two models, the Air and Gravity. Lucid launched the Air in late 2021.

"Peter, you have said 'I like to underpromise and like to overdeliver,'" the question began. "When will we see underpromising and overdelivering? It has been the complete opposite so far."

Lucid's stock price has lost about two-thirds of its value over the past 12 months. The company's headquarters is located in Newark, Calif., a few miles from Tesla's Fremont factory.

Rawlinson said on the previous earnings call in February that the company had solved most of its manufacturing issues and that he was shifting his focus to drumming up more sales for the Air, which has won multiple awards for its 500-mile battery range and blistering acceleration.

The Air has a starting price of $89,095 with shipping, but the company has mostly been producing higher trim versions with considerably higher transaction prices. Lucid has said it is stepping up production of lower trims.

"My focus is on sales," Rawlinson said on the call. "And here's the thing: We've got what I believe to be the very best product in the world and just too few people aware of not just the car but the company."

One hurdle the Air faces is that it's an executive sedan in a U.S. market dominated by crossovers and pickups.

EV rival Rivian Automotive, which launched production in late 2021, said in February that it has a considerable order backlog for its R1T electric pickup and R1S crossover. The R1S starts at $79,800 with shipping.

Lucid also faces increased competition from Tesla, which has sharply reduced the price for its flagship Model S sedan this year, and from Mercedes-Benz and BMW with their new EV sedans.

Lucid cut about 1,300 employees in March and is rolling out new marketing efforts to spur sales.

Last month, the EV maker began a 42-city tour with Air models for display at pop-up stores.

The Dream Ahead Tour started mid-April with four stops in Florida and will finish in mid-November in Dallas, the company said. The pop-ups will offer test drives and information about Lucid's proprietary EV technologies. The Air sedan holds the U.S. record for EV range and efficiency, according to the EPA.

"Consumers across the United States will have the opportunity to experience and drive various Lucid Air models, including the Lucid Air Grand Touring, offering 819 horsepower and an EPA-estimated range of 516 miles on a single charge," Lucid said in a press release. The Grand Touring starts at $139,650 with shipping.

Lucid, which sells directly to buyers, has 35 retail stores in North America concentrated mostly in EV-friendly cities. The most recent Lucid Studio opened in March in Corte Madera, Calif., near San Francisco.

The automaker recently teased images of the Gravity crossover now in development. Lucid said in late April that the three-row crossover will soon start testing in camouflage on U.S. roads.

"This luxury electric SUV will offer comfortable seating for up to seven adults and their gear, the driving dynamics of a sports car, and greater electric range than any SUV," Lucid said.