IHS production outlook: Bad now, record high in '24

You thought last year was bad for auto production? It will be worse this year — before things get dramatically better.

That's the projection from IHS Markit, whose production and sales forecasts for light vehicles appear as a new feature, on Page 24.

IHS Markit says just more than 13 million light vehicles will be built in North America in 2021, a year that has been crippled by a global shortage of microchips. That would be down 0.2 percent from last year, when auto factories were closed for months in the spring because of the pandemic.

Production will rebound next year, IHS says. After that, IHS projects a steady increase to a record 18.2 million in 2024.

The data includes production outlooks through 2028 by region as well as industry totals. Among the notable numbers: In 2027, global vehicle production is seen topping 100 million for the first time — a 34 percent increase from this year's forecasted total.

It's a similar picture on the sales side. Combined deliveries in the U.S., Canada and Mexico also are expected to peak in 2024, at more than 21.1 million.

The sales data includes forecasts for other regions, including China, where the pace of sales is projected to increase even faster than in North America. IHS projects that market will top 30 million in 2025.