EV-only approach will crash and burn

TO THE EDITOR:

Western automakers are driving at top speed toward dead man’s curve. Most will crash and burn. The only way to survive is to keep some capacity to build and sell gasoline-powered and hybrid gasoline-electric models in the early 2030s.

Why is an epic industry pileup inevitable? Automakers must plan and invest for 10 to 15 years into the future. However, by 2030, Western politicians will blink and move the EV mandate goal post — responding to voter backlash and practical reality (charging and electricity-generating capacities, reduced EV range in harsh driving environments, low EV residual values, rising insurance/repair costs and consumer preferences). Most “all EV” automakers will be driving too fast, lose control and fail to make the turn.

Simply put, the ill-fated drag race between a Stingray and an XKE described in Jan & Dean’s popular 1963 song “Dead Man’s Curve” is about to be reprised in 2033. Except it will be between “EV only” automakers and the wily few competitors that tap the brakes and have a stable of hybrids able to round that tight turn and live to race another day. Perhaps auto CEOs should reflect on the pop classic, which offers this lesson: You “won’t come back from Dead Man’s Curve.” 

THOMAS LOGIE, Easton, Conn.
The writer is retired research director for Global Investment Research, which provides independent macroeconomic research to professional money managers.