Tesla: 2023 kicks off next big cycle

Tesla Inc. has achieved remarkable growth in recent years with just four vehicles in its lineup: the Model S midsize sedan, Model X midsize crossover, Model 3 compact sedan and Model Y compact crossover.

Combined, those four nameplates now dominate the U.S. luxury car segment and top the EV charts. Tesla is the second-best-selling brand after Toyota in California, which often sets future-product trends for the nation.

But Tesla fans are clamoring for more. And financial analysts watching Tesla stock warn of growing competition.

EV startup Rivian beat Tesla to market with an electric pickup last year, and Ford Motor Co. followed this year with the more mainstream Ford F-150 Lightning. Tesla has nothing yet in the potentially lucrative segment.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has been promising new models for years, starting with the unveiling of the Roadster sports coupe and Semi cargo truck in 2017, followed by continual delays. Far more exciting to many Tesla fans, however, was the Cybertruck reveal in 2019 with production originally promised for 2021.

Musk, who is known for missing product deadlines, is now hailing 2023 as the start of a new product cycle. He said that the missed deadlines have come, in part, from the need to first scale up production of the company's current models.

With the inauguration of a new plant in Austin, Texas, and another one in Berlin, Tesla expects to continue its aggressive sales growth by 50 percent a year — while also starting to deliver highly anticipated new products.

Musk is not only promising to bring the delayed Cybertruck, Roadster and Semi to market in the next year but has added a surprise new promise: a dedicated robotaxi model, without human controls such as a steering wheel and foot pedals, as early as 2024.

Musk has also hinted at a van, which could use the Cybertruck platform, according to automotive analysts.

Tesla had promised a $25,000 model that fans dubbed the Model 2, but Musk said earlier this year that the automaker is not working on such a vehicle. Rather, Tesla is betting on inexpensive robotaxi rides as an alternative for low-cost transportation.

Beyond automotive hardware, Musk is once again predicting that Tesla's Full Self-Driving software — which is in beta testing and not autonomous — will be ready by the end of the year. Tesla says it doesn't follow traditional notions of model years, updating its vehicles constantly instead.

Musk also has revealed plans for a humanoid robot that he says has the potential to be more significant than Tesla's auto business.

Semi: Tesla's cargo hauler was shown in prototype form in 2017 with promises to revolutionize the trucking industry. Musk said it would be far faster than current diesel semi trucks, far cheaper to operate, have up to 500 miles of range and a $150,000 base price. He also projected production to start in 2019, before multiple delays. This year, the CEO said that Semi production would follow the Cybertruck in 2023, but he later suggested in a Twitter post that some might be delivered to customers this year. "Tesla 500 mile range Semi Truck starts shipping this year, Cybertruck next year," Musk wrote on Aug. 9.

Tesla's website says that the Semi can charge to 70 percent in 30 minutes on its proprietary Megachargers. The Class-8 truck has a maximum cargo rating of 80,000 pounds.

Robovan: Musk took to Twitter on July 7 to bolster predictions that Tesla was looking at a future van-style vehicle, either for lifestyle, cargo or both. "Maybe Tesla should make a highly configurable Robovan for people & cargo?" he wrote.

Previously, AutoForecast Solutions told Automotive News, "Tesla should introduce a large commercial van in 2024, depending on how the rollout of the Cybertruck proceeds." The van could share a platform with the Cybertruck, which is expected to go into production next year at the Austin factory. In response to Twitter users' comments about the van, Musk suggested any new vehicles should have a futuristic design.

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Cybertruck: The wildly styled pickup was first shown three years ago with promises to revolutionize the segment. Musk said its specifications would challenge the Ford F-150, Chevrolet Silverado and Ram pickups — with a starting price of just under $40,000 before shipping. And he promised the first units by late 2021. According to informal tallies, more than 1 million people have put down a $100 refundable reservation to hold their place in line for future orders.

But meanwhile, Rivian launched its R1T pickup last year to widespread industry acclaim, and Ford started selling the electric F-150 Lightning this year with a massive order backlog. Chevrolet's Silverado EV is expected in spring 2023.

Musk has now committed to a mid-2023 launch for the Cybertruck at the new Texas factory. But he has said it will be far more expensive than originally promised. Tesla's base Model 3 sedan with a single rear motor, a more inexpensive lithium-iron battery and less than 300 miles of range starts at nearly $50,000 with shipping. The Model S and X start at over $100,000.

AutoForecast Solutions estimates the Cybertruck will go into production in the fourth quarter of 2023. Output of the Cybertruck may depend on the availability of the 4680 battery, since the new cell is designed to drive more energy-hungry applications such as the Cybertruck and Semi. Tesla is significantly behind on its original timeline for mass production of the new battery cell. Musk said earlier this year that Tesla is not dependent on 4680 production this year but will need the new battery next year.

Like other Tesla vehicles, the Cybertruck is likely to receive regular minor updates and could go a decade before a new generation.

Model X: Tesla's flagship SUV, with its gull-wing doors and history of quality issues, received an interior freshen and drivetrain update similar to the Model S last year, with a horizontal touch screen, a revised interior, new motors, battery pack and electronics. Even though the Model X is more of a family hauler than a sports car, it also received a yoke-style steering wheel with capacitive buttons — for turn signals, wipers and high-beam headlights — and its own Plaid edition, following the debut of the ultraperformance moniker with the Model S Plaid last year. The Model X Plaid, priced at $145,940 with shipping, has three motors and 1,020 hp. The next freshen could come in 2025 and a new generation by the end of the decade.

Model Y: Launched in 2020, the Model Y has grown to become Tesla's most popular model in the U.S. The Y's arrival marked a huge milestone for the automaker, which had been selling the pricey Model X and two sedans. The Model Y, which is on the bigger side of the electric compact crossover segment, hit the sweet spot for U.S. buyers despite multiple price hikes that have moved it from the low-$40,000 range for an entry model to above $60,000. Since its introduction, the Y has received updates such as acoustic glass, a seven-seat option, new interior materials and a recently added cargo cover. It was also fitted with a bigger battery pack.

This year, Tesla began making a more inexpensive version of the Model Y — the standard all-wheel-drive model — at its new factory in Texas. But the new model has had extremely limited availability. It uses Tesla's in-house 4680 cylindrical battery cells and a new structural pack that incorporates the cells into the vehicle structure. Musk has said Tesla will mostly rely on its older 2170 battery cells for the Model Y until it can ramp up 4680 production at battery plants in California and Texas.

Tesla priced the standard awd Model Y at $61,440 with shipping and first sold them to employees before offering small numbers to the general public in certain areas. Tesla said the new model had 279 miles of range. The least expensive Model Y available for order nationwide is the long-range version, which starts at $67,440 and has 330 miles of estimated range. Tesla is likely to expand availability for the standard-range awd version as 4680 supply ramps up this year or next. A Model Y Plaid could also be added next year at the top of the trim lineup.

AutoForecast Solutions is expecting a redesign of the Model Y in 2027.

Model S: Tesla's first volume vehicle — launched in 2012 — received a significant freshen in 2021. On the outside, it's slightly longer and wider with a more aggressive look. Interior changes are more extensive, with a yoke-style steering wheel that replaced the round one found in previous models. Likewise, the stalks on the steering column have been replaced by capacitive buttons on the yoke for turn signals, wipers and high-beam headlights. The sedan's iconic vertically oriented touch screen is now a horizontal unit that can tilt to the left or right. Musk has said the freshened S has a new battery pack, new drive units, new internal electronics and computer chips to run demanding video games.

Still in its first generation, the freshened S also has a new driver-information display, a new rear-seat display and a Plaid ultraperformance model. Tesla calls the Plaid, starting at $137,440 with shipping, the quickest accelerating production car with a 0-to-60 mph time of under two seconds. Some supercars claim similar numbers. Given the extensive changes to the S, which some Tesla fans argue should qualify as a redesign, the sedan's next update will likely come late in the decade.

Model 3: The compact sedan that launched five years ago — marking Tesla's breakthrough move into higher-volume segments — remains a strong seller despite the arrival of the Model Y crossover in 2020 on the same platform. The Model 3's popularity comes in part from its entry-level price of $48,440 with shipping, compared with $67,440 for the Model Y, which has a bigger battery and more features.

Part of the savings comes from the base Model 3's lithium iron battery from China. The new pack was offered after a Model 3 freshen for the 2021 model that included blacked-out exterior trim, longer range, new interior materials, a power trunk and a heat pump for greater efficiency.

For 2022, the Model 3 is mostly unchanged except for a series of price hikes that makes it about $8,000 more expensive compared with early 2021.

AutoPacific forecasts a second Model 3 freshen for 2025. A new-generation Model 3 — with a full exterior and interior redesign — may not come until late in the decade. In 2023, the Model 3 could get a performance Plaid edition.

AutoForecast Solutions says there could be a redesign of the Model 3 as early as 2024. It's the oldest Tesla vehicle without a major update, and the styling is becoming dated in markets like California where the Model 3 is ubiquitous.

Roadster: Tesla's first vehicle back in 2008 was the limited-production Roadster, and fans of the brand have been waiting for its revival for years. Musk teased a new Roadster at the unveiling of the Semi truck in December 2017. Originally due in 2020, Roadster reservations can still be made with a $50,000 refundable deposit. Pricing initially started at $200,000. Musk promised that the four-seater with a removable roof would set world records for a production car such as acceleration, top speed and EV range.

Although no formal date has been set by Tesla, which calls the Roadster a supercar on its website, Musk said this year that it would follow the Cybertruck into production, suggesting 2023.

Robotaxi: Tesla expects to reach volume production of a new robotaxi vehicle without a steering wheel or pedals by 2024, Musk said on an earnings call this year. The goal of the model, which would use Tesla's still-incomplete Full Self-Driving software, is to reach the lowest cost per mile for a taxi-type vehicle. But Musk hasn't offered more details, saying he doesn't want to ruin the product announcement event next year.

Musk first mentioned plans for the vehicle during the April event celebrating the Austin factory opening. "There's going to be a dedicated robotaxi that's going to look quite futuristic," he said. The robotaxi, however, would presumably depend on Tesla solving fully autonomous driving — a task that seems years away.

Optimus: Tesla teased a humanoid robot last year, and Musk has been promoting it as a game changer for the automaker, which could employ it in Tesla's factory. Musk said the company may have a working prototype to show Sept. 30 as part of Tesla AI Day, dedicated to artificial intelligence.