Harry Truman, when he was president, is said to have demanded a one-armed economist. He was frustrated, the legend went, because none would give him straightforward policy advice — they all said "on the one hand" this "and on the other hand" that.
Jonathan Smoke still has both of his arms, but the chief economist for Cox Automotive has a decidedly bullish outlook on the auto industry. I interviewed him for the "Daily Drive" podcast last week, and it was almost like pulling teeth to get him to utter a discouraging word.
"We have at current count $3.6 trillion sitting in bank accounts that did not exist prior to the pandemic, because of the massive amount of savings that consumers have accrued," he said. He projects years of growth to come, and said "we've got more risk to the upside, frankly, than I think we have to the downside."
But let's talk about the risks a little.