We all make mistakes, some of us just do it more publicly than others.
A fairly recent one in this space was my assertion that whatever any serious analyst would predict for 2022 auto sales, I would take the over.
My belief was that chipmakers would be motivated to exceed expectations and automakers would excel at maximizing revenue via completed vehicles — hence the outcome would be better than expected.
What I failed to predict was Vladimir Putin's violent attempt to seize Ukraine, and later that it would last so long.
Forecasts are being revised downward, appropriately, and I have to admit I have almost no idea what will happen this year. Sadly, any realistic estimation of the "worst-case scenario" has gotten drastically worse.
Another risk I didn't exactly get right was the COVID-19 situation at this month's NADA Show in Las Vegas.
At the height of the omicron surge, and in the wake of the CES in January being forced to go hybrid, the Automotive News editorial board and I argued that the dealer association should follow the same strict policies that the giant tech expo pursued: mandatory vaccines, mandatory masks, daily antigen testing.
Our intent was to ensure that the automotive retail industry's biggest annual gathering didn't become a mega-spreader event, especially with a population that includes a lot of folks who might be especially vulnerable to the virus' attack on their respiratory system. Our hope was that if NADA set those guidelines in January, there would be time for more people to protect themselves and their families by getting vaccinated.
NADA didn't take our advice, and the show didn't seem to suffer for it.