Autonomous vehicles continue to push forward across the globe — with more torque than speed, it is true. But with pilot projects multiplying, regulatory and tech barriers falling, and industrial applications proving themselves out, 2022 will be a breakthrough year in many markets.
Consumer-focused autonomy in the form of robotaxis is the most visible aspect of this large and diverse market and arguably the one driving the most change.
China's AutoX, backed by Alibaba Group, will expand its Shenzhen-centered driverless vehicle zone to 65 square miles, making it the world's largest.
In Beijing, Baidu and Pony.ai will test a fleet of approximately 100 vehicles in the city's challenging urban terrain, and Shanghai is the site of smaller-scale tests from SAIC Mobility and Momenta.
Munich and Paris will see robotaxi services from Intel and Sixt, though there are significant regulatory barriers to operating at a large scale.
Germany may pull ahead of its neighbors, however: It is weighing allowing Level 3 vehicles on public roads, but it also is getting ahead of the game with preparations for Level 4 services.
According to a Bloomberg analysis, AVs will account for 10 percent of EV electricity demand by 2040 and 20 percent by 2050 — and some may call those predictions conservative. But what is certain is that countries and companies that have invested in infrastructure will be rewarded.
One company with an eye toward the future is Faurecia, which over the summer acquired industrial giant Hella for $8.4 billion. This promoted the resulting company into the top 10 global automotive suppliers, and its broadened expertise will serve as a powerful foundation for a next-generation mobility supplier.
Comparatively unsettled is the sensing and hardware suite for Level 3 and Level 4 autonomy. Lidar prices continue to fall (Bosch says it will have units below $500 soon), while capabilities rise — but the poster child for machine perception is being displaced by other modalities.
