EVs should not divide America

In politics or public opinion, nothing ever goes in one direction forever. There's always a counterargument in the eternal dialectic.

I still chuckle at Yogi Berra's great line about a fancy restaurant: "Nobody goes there anymore. It's too crowded."

When something gets too popular, it becomes cool to be different.

Maybe that's all it is. But I fear that America's political tribalism risks poisoning the traditional domestic auto industry's efforts to catch up with Tesla and the rest of the world and get real about reducing carbon emissions that are cooking our planet.

Escalent is a market-research company that has been tracking electric vehicle awareness and interest for a decade. For the last three years, it has had a broad survey in the field and most recently it found a surprising development: For the first time, interest in EVs declined.

Most people in the study were still very favorable on the technology: 83 percent consider it "the future" or "an interesting idea." But the percentage who call it a "passing fad" or a "stupid idea" jumped to 18 percent from 13 percent.

Those who changed their minds: political conservatives.

It isn't entirely clear why they turned against the technology — at a time when investors clamor for more EVs and companies are pledging billions of dollars in investments. Meanwhile, an improving array of offerings has EV sales growth outpacing the rest of the industry.

"In the news, there's discussion about big infrastructure investments related to electric vehicle chargers," Mike Dovorany, Escalent's vice president of automotive and mobility, told me last week on the "Daily Drive" podcast. "There's been a bit of a thread that's picked up that, 'Hey, you know, I don't think these are for me; I don't think that they're for my tribe.' "

I don't know of any right-wing media outlets pounding the drum against EVs as too aligned with the Democratic Party. But viewers of mainstream media certainly can't miss that President Joe Biden is excited about EVs (though he seems to be wary of nonunion Tesla). He raved about gunning the Ford F-150 Lightning. He had leaders from the UAW and Detroit 3 join him at the White House to talk about wanting zero-emission vehicles to become half — or maybe 40 percent — of their sales by the end of the decade.

Is Biden personally connected to EVs? You bet. His @POTUS Twitter account last week posted a video of General Motors CEO Mary Barra telling him: "We're so happy to support your agenda on climate change and getting to an all-EV future."

Those words may be music to Sacramento, Los Angeles and San Francisco but they're less welcome in Texas and West Virginia.

While some on the right, especially those who don't accept the notion of global warming, might view EV adoption is a "win" for Biden and the Democrats, there are a lot of reasons conservatives can support EVs.

But first, regarding those who think they're just a bad idea, I'll give them this: Most EVs today are not really competitive, except with consumers who place a very large value on not burning gasoline or on the instant torque of electric motors.

Most EVs are estimated to face a cost disadvantage of about $8,000 to $11,000. So compromises must be made — on size, range, profitability, entry price. In the short term, it doesn't look like a smart business.

But the equation will not always be so grim. Battery technology is improving, scale is being developed and product offerings are beginning to align with Americans' actual buying habits. So what looks dumb to some now may become the obvious solution in a few years.

There are good reasons the "EV revolution" need not be divisive, reasons all Americans can be open to an EV future, separate from what we each think the government's role should be in shaping that future.

Jobs: Whatever the powertrain, automotive investments tend to be large, long-lasting and with a powerful gravity for related investments. That means jobs for citizens, making more affluent middle-class consumers. States are competing for these investments because they are good for communities — and many of them are going in red states.

• Energy security: While Vladimir Putin lines up troops at Ukraine's border and implicitly threatens Germany's supply of heating fuel, the importance of energy independence is abundantly clear. Weaning America off gasoline may not be popular in pockets of Texas or Oklahoma — though both states are eager for EV investments — but EVs give America more flexibility in how to power personal transportation, including coal and natural gas, and renewable sources such as solar and wind.
• Global competitiveness: Reducing carbon emissions is not easy or cheap, but much of the rest of the world is farther along than the U.S. While it's fun to rake in profits from gasoline-burning pickups and SUVs, America's traditional brands risk getting legislated out of other markets if they don't invest in the battery technology that is almost as ubiquitous in modern life as computer chips.
• Driving experience: There's nothing like punching the accelerator on a good EV and feeling the instantaneous and powerful pull of the electric motor's torque.

Dovorany said survey participants report that driving an electric car is a better experience than a traditional vehicle and often the deciding factor that led to a first EV purchase.

"That's an area where we think [automakers] and dealers can work together well — you know, get people — actually get their butts in the seats."

Just not all at once. It will get too crowded.