Another outcome of chip crisis: U.S. share tips in Japan's favor

Here's one stunning stat that got buried in our quarterly sales reports: Through the first half of 2021, Japanese automakers hold a higher share of the U.S. market than the Detroit 3 do.

The margin isn't much: 39.2 percent vs. 39 percent, according to the Automotive News Research & Data Center. But considering that a landmark shift occurred just 14 years ago, when the Detroit 3 lost its majority stake, those points flew by in a hurry.

Blame the global microchip crisis for the latest drop. Midway through 2020, Ford, General Motors and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (now Stellantis) had a 44.1 percent share. A year earlier, the figure was 44 percent, showing that the balance of power remained stable during the pandemic shutdowns of early 2020.

But the chip shortage has been an unequal differentiator.

Over the past 12 months, American Honda has gained nearly a point of U.S. share. Toyota Motor North America's advance is closer to two points. GM and Stellantis, meanwhile, have each lost more than a point. And Ford, stunningly, has coughed up nearly three. It's now at 11.8 percent, down from 14.6 percent midway through last year.

The last sudden shift of this magnitude — pardon the pun — occurred in 2011, when an earthquake and tsunami in Japan hit that country's automakers hard. In the span of a year, their collective U.S. share dropped nearly four points, to 34.9 percent. U.S., European and (mainly) South Korean rivals all picked up the pieces. It took six years for the Japanese to claw their way back to their 2010 level.

Bank of America auto analyst John Murphy says the lessons learned then about supply chain management help explain why Japanese automakers have been less impacted by the chip shortage than have their European and U.S. rivals.

He also believes that the latest share losses may be more transitory than those we've seen in the past. You don't have to be a star-spangled optimist to see a reason for that.

Ford's F-Series pickup is the bestselling vehicle in the nation, and it's been hit hardest by the chip shortage. Many potential pickup buyers have surely decided to postpone their purchases, especially as chief rivals Chevrolet and Ram have lost plenty of production because of the chip shortages, too.

Ford also is taking orders for vehicles that will be delivered as soon as they can be built. Ford says first-half retail orders were up "16-fold" while it parks untold numbers of mostly built vehicles waiting for chips.

What's more, preserving share just for the sake of preserving share may be less of a motive than it was two decades ago, when GM execs sported lapel pins with the number 29 on them — their market share goal at the time. As numerous experts have pointed out this year, the industry has found it can be very healthy without excess doses of incentives to clear lots oversupplied with vehicles.

"I think share is becoming less of a primary driver of business strategy," Murphy explained to me last week. "Profit and cash flow are becoming more of the primary drivers, particularly as you need that money to invest in electrification and autonomous driving."

That will be demonstrated in the coming weeks, when Ford and GM are expected to announce what Murphy says "essentially will be all-time records" in their second-quarter earnings reports.

And they'll have done it with a combined share of 27.7 percent — below that elusive figure GM so desperately tried to preserve for itself not that long ago.