Toyota bZ4X EV expected to top RAV4 in many ways, but not sales

SODEGAURA, Japan — Toyota seems a bit torn about its new bZ4X electric crossover, the automaker's first serious attempt to tap into the rapidly expanding electric vehicle world.

On one hand, Toyota touts the bZ4X as superior to anything similar in its lineup in terms of torque, acceleration, rigidity, interior space, grip, safety and styling. On the other, the world's biggest automaker seems oddly reserved about the model's sales prospects.

At an early test drive event outside Tokyo last week, Toyota dodged questions about how many it expects to build and sell after the bZ4X goes on sale in mid-2022.

Daisuke Ido, general manager of ZEV Factory where Toyota is developing a fleet of new EVs, would only say that volumes are expected to grow with wider EV adoption.

But Japan's Nikkei newspaper, citing suppliers familiar with Toyota's planning, reported that the automaker has targeted just 60,000 vehicles worldwide in the bZ4X's first year, and then a decline to about 50,000 the next. By comparison, Toyota sold 407,000 of the comparable RAV4 crossovers last year in the U.S. alone.

But Ido said the Nikkei's number is wrong. That is likely because the newspaper did not seem to account for China, where Toyota will build the bZ4X through its two local joint ventures.

"The volume isn't important, because in the future it's going to expand," Ido said.

But even if the new vehicle sells 100,000 or more worldwide, such volume is still small by Toyota's standards. And although it represents a huge leap from the 14,407 EVs that Toyota sold worldwide in 2021, the internal expectations show how far Toyota still has to go to reach its publicly stated goal of selling 3.5 million EVs a year by 2030.

The number also still pales next to the nearly 1 million Tesla sold last year.

As another sign of cautiousness about the new EV, Toyota is planning to offer the bZ4X only through lease or subscription programs in Japan, where gasoline-electric hybrids still reign supreme. Doing so, Toyota says, will help "eliminate customer concerns about BEV."

Company spokeswoman Rina Naruke said "customers can enjoy the unique driving and the cabin spaciousness of BEV without worrying about battery performance deterioration, maintenance, trade-in value and others."

Steep stickers may also temper retail sales.

Toyota hasn't announced pricing for the U.S. But in the U.K., the bZ4X starts at £41,950 ($56,960) and tops out at a pricey £51,550 ($70,000) for the Premiere edition. That may serve as an indicator for pricing in other markets.

During the test drive, engineers repeatedly compared the bZ4X to Toyota's hero nameplate, the RAV4 hybrid. In virtually every spec, the full-electric topped the gasoline-electric vehicle.

The bZ4X has a lower center of gravity, faster acceleration, wider use of all-wheel-drive mode and better line tracing around bends. And because it uses awd technology supplied by Subaru Corp., which co-developed the vehicle and sells its own version called the Solterra, the bZ4X gets a new function called grip control. This lets the vehicle take over the driving on slippery hills, allowing drivers to take their feet off the brake and gas pedals to focus on the steering while the bZ4X navigates tough terrain.

The bZ4X is a little longer than the RAV4, and gets a longer wheelbase, wider body, lower roof and hood and shorter rear overhang. The dimensions opened more legroom in the rear seat, and combined with the flat floor, helped deliver a spacious cabin feel. They also create sleeker exterior proportions, along with wheel cladding that lends an oversized look to the tires.

The bZ4X also adopts a range of enhanced technological features. Cabin climate control was reworked for maximum efficiency by using a heat pump. And for the first time in a Toyota, radiant foot heating is used in the front seats. Select models in some markets will even get a solar roof panel.

The cockpit might initially look a bit busy, with lots of angles and panel joints around the steering module. The upright digital display has plenty of buttons, and the steering wheel juts toward the driver like a canon. But the overall layout is clean, uncluttered and modern.

The bZ4X will come with two steering options: One is the traditional, circular steering wheel. The other is a new Formula One-styled wing-shaped handle that connects via steer-by-wire technology.

Toyota says this one-motion control eliminates the need to change grips when negotiating U-turns, garage parking or winding roads. Steer-by-wire also eliminates annoying road vibration and creates more legroom because there is no steering column.

The bZ4X also gets a newly developed lithium ion water-cooled battery designed for long life. The advancement is much bigger, brick-sized cells. This allows Toyota to use fewer cells and a less complicated, lighter and more compact wiring system between them.

The bZ4X uses 96 cells, each packing about 0.74 kilowatt-hour of energy. In the Lexus UX, the other full EV in the company's lineup, the 288 cells each get 0.19 kWh.

The batteries for bZ4Xs built in China will be sourced from Chinese battery giant CATL. The batteries for bZ4Xs built at Toyota's Motomachi plant in Toyota City will come from both CATL and Prime Planet Energy & Solutions, a Toyota joint venture with Panasonic.

The bZ4X exhibited exhilarating spurts of acceleration, in true EV fashion, even though the vehicle runs 0 to 60 mph in only 7.2 seconds — not exactly sports car performance. Still, the handling was quick and rigid, thanks to a stiff new EV-only platform, low center of gravity and liberal use of high-tensile steel. The awd version, with one motor fore, the other aft, felt especially spunky. It's easy to understand why Toyota bills this as better than the RAV4 Hybrid.

Toyota says it will announce sales targets closer to the launch date.