Why Toyota's electrification push is dramatic reply to critics

Toyota's message as it unveiled 16 new battery electric vehicles during its 'showroom of the future' presentation on Tuesday was simple: we are not anti EV.

The automaker, a pioneer in launching gasoline-electric drivetrains, has faced criticism for the slower speed it has rolled-out battery-electric cars than rivals such as Volkswagen Group.

This has opened up Toyota to criticism that it is not taking the global climate emergency seriously enough.

Tuesday's unveiling, including 14 new full-electric concepts and the Lexus RZ production battery-powered crossover, was Toyota's dramatic reply to critics.

This was emphasized by CEO Akio Toyoda's announcement that the automaker aims to sell 3.5 million full-electric cars by 2030, a total revised upward from  an earlier figure of 2 million.

"Some people say Toyota is not interested in EVs, that's what we hear a lot," Toyoda said during the presentation in Tokyo. "But when you think of the volume [of EVs] we are talking about it's a huge volume."

Toyoda, however, warned that even the upwards revision of EV sales would not silence all the company's critics. "Two million is a huge number and now we're saying 3.5 million as a baseline, but people will still say [it's only] 3.5 million out of 10 million annually," he said.

Toyota's global strength is also its weakness in its bid to become climate neutral. The company has no choice but to comply with tough new legislation in Europe, the U.S. and China that limits CO2 emissions. That is where it will sell the bulk of its future EVs, a push that gets underway next year with the launch of the bZ4X midsize crossover.

The automaker also has a commanding lead in markets where zero-emissions mandates on transportation are a long way off.

For example, Toyota is the No.1 brand in South Africa, Argentina, Australia, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Ukraine, Indonesia, Taiwan, New Zealand, Thailand, Philippines and others (data from Bestsellingcarsblog.com). In many of these countries its market share runs to 25 percent and higher.

Toyota therefore is understandably reluctant to commit to an all-electric future. "We want to keep options for everyone," Toyoda said.

It also feels a sense of duty to its suppliers and the Japanese automotive workforce. "If Japan is 100 percent BEV, then 1 million people will lose their jobs out of 5 million," Toyoda said.

The automaker says it will introduce a lineup of 30 battery electric vehicles by 2030, including small Japanese 'kei' cars and commercial vehicles and will invest four trillion yen ($35 billion) in EVs including battery technology between 2022 and 2030. But over the same period, it will also spend another four trillion on hybrids, fuel-cell cars and plug-in hybrids.

The company hopes that other climate-neutral solutions might emerge to allow it to continue to sell vehicles with combustion engines guilt-free. Toyoda himself drives a Corolla racecar with an engine that burns hydrogen.

Toyota's chief technology officer, Masahiko Maeda, highlighted the case of Brazil where the dominant fuel is ethanol primarily made from sugar cane waste.

"There are such markets that exist where we don't hear any complaints from consumers and we are selling a sizeable number of vehicles,' he said at the presentation.

Streamlining drivetrains might make good business sense for some automakers, but not Toyota, its president argued. "We are living in a diversified world and in an era in which it is hard to predict the future," Toyoda said. "It is difficult to make everyone happy with a one-size-fits-all option."