Nissan is ready to start growing again after first profit in two years

YOKOHAMA, Japan — Nissan is shifting back into growth mode.

After two years of steep losses and cuts in production capacity and the number of models it sells, Nissan Motor Co. last week announced its return to profitability for the first time since 2019, saying it is making steady progress not only on its midterm revival plan checklist but toward its 2030 growth goals.

In an interview and in other talks last week, COO Ashwani Gupta, the executive charged with executing Nissan's turnaround, said Nissan has "fixed the fundamentals" and at last transitioned from "a volume-led to a value-driven" strategy.

"We have rebuilt the U.S. operations based on quality of sales," he said.

The checklist of corrections include: lower fixed costs, higher revenue per vehicle, better dealer engagement, advances in solid-state batteries and next-generation lidar technologies, new electric vehicles and, crucially, plans for new EV factories to build them.

Japan's No. 3 carmaker is now finally changing gears from recovery to investing in expansion, Gupta said.

In the critical U.S. market, that means turbocharging the transformation from sales quantity to sales quality. It means adopting a build-to-order mindset to achieve more efficient retail sales in a new normal of leaner inventories. And it will likely mean building a third U.S. assembly plant, as the automaker doubles down on electrifying its Nissan and Infiniti brands.

Gupta said he wakes every day at 5 a.m. to call Nissan Americas Chairman Jeremie Papin to make sure everything is still on track. So far, Gupta insists, Nissan is ahead of schedule.

Under the Nissan Next midterm plan, which runs through March 2024, Gupta has slashed ¥350 billion ($2.87 billion) in fixed costs, cut global capacity by 20 percent and consolidated the number of nameplates.

Net revenue per unit in the U.S. has risen 19 percent over the past two years. Segment share shot up for models such as the Rogue crossover and Frontier pickup. And dealer sentiment, as measured by the National Automobile Dealers Association, is on the uptick.

Looking to the next phase, electrification and technology will be big drivers.

"We are intensifying our focus on the seeds of future growth," Gupta said.

Fresh off announcing plans to add electric vehicle production at a second U.S. assembly plant, Nissan is now eying the construction of another North American factory by 2030, largely to meet EV demand.

"The way we are progressing, I do believe we will need a new plant," Gupta said.

Gupta said the move fits with the trend toward localization as Nissan makes electrification a focal point of expansion. Last November, Nissan said it will invest $16.4 billion in the next five years to amp up an electrified vehicle push with 23 new entries worldwide by the end of the decade and derive 40 percent of U.S. sales from pure electrics.

"The question is how and when it becomes electric," Gupta said of consumer demand. "But one day it will. I think it may not be a surprise if we announce a new plant in the U.S."

Nissan entered U.S. electric vehicle production with the Leaf hatchback, built at its flagship U.S. plant in Smyrna, Tenn., starting in late 2012.

In February, Nissan said it will invest $500 million to turn its Canton, Miss., assembly plant into a "center for EV manufacturing and technology." Canton will produce two new EVs, one for the Nissan brand, the other for Infiniti, with output beginning around 2025.

Meanwhile, battery maker Envision AESC, which is partly owned by Nissan, unveiled plans last month to invest $2 billion to build a battery plant in Kentucky.

That factory, which opens in 2025, will have capacity to supply 300,000 vehicles a year by 2027. It will initially supply Mercedes-Benz's newly launched EV production line in Vance, Ala. But the supplier will also pitch its wares to other EV makers. It could have plenty of product to fuel new EV offerings from both Nissan or Infiniti.

New manufacturing firepower could come as a completely new factory or the expansion of an existing facility, Gupta said. He did not elaborate on other details such as a possible site, timeline or model types. But the electrification of the Infiniti premium brand will be an important driver in the need to expand localized production in the region.

"The importance of localization will increase, year on year," Gupta said.

One thing Nissan isn't convinced of yet, however, is the possibility of spinning off its EV unit.

Ford Motor Co. is separating its EV business internally. And Nissan's French alliance partner Renault is proposing a full spinoff. Renault boss Luca de Meo is visiting Japan for the first time in his CEO role to discuss the idea with Nissan CEO Makoto Uchida.

Gupta said Nissan will support Renault's decisions through the alliance. But he said it is too early for Nissan to consider cleaving off its own EV business. Nissan still gets the vast majority of its sales from internal combustion models and can't ditch those customers.

"It is too early to consider because of our diversified market portfolio and diversified product portfolio," Gupta said.

In bouncing back from two years of red ink — including its biggest ever operating loss — Nissan achieved operating profit of $2.03 billion in the fiscal year ended March 31.

It did so even as its global sales declined 4.3 percent to 3.88 million vehicles.

This year will be a critical one in proving Nissan's mettle. Despite packing profits again, the company expects little to no growth in operating profit in the current fiscal year, as soaring raw material prices, lingering semiconductor shortages and global market uncertainties eat at earnings.

But 2022 is also a time to showcase Nissan's progress, especially toward its 2030 goals.

That includes the launch of two long-awaited EVs — the Ariya crossover and an upcoming all-electric mini-vehicle for Japan that debuts this month. Both entries are steppingstones toward Nissan's goal of electrifying 40 percent of its global model mix by 2026.

Nissan wants to reconfigure the retail business to thrive on slimmer inventories.

Gupta believes the supply chain interruptions that have crimped factory output are the new normal. It has taught the company and dealers how to operate more efficiently.

Today, some 60 percent of Nissan's vehicles in the U.S. are built-to-order, rather than built-to-stock. Even after the microchip crisis clears, Nissan intends to keep it that way.

"We have learned that this is more efficient," Gupta said. "And this is good for dealers. The dealer is ordering a car that is already requested by a customer."

While Nissan is back on its feet, the company is still a little wobbly. Nissan's stock price fell 2.9 percent the day after it announced its return to profitability.

Still, Uchida said it is an important milestone just to be making money again. "Finally, we are at the starting line," he said. "Now is the time to deliver greater value and grow the company."