Others versed in the nuances of trade promotion authority say it is unlikely that the USMCA will be approved in the short window between the election and early January, given all the required steps.
Republican leaders, especially Mitch McConnell in the Senate, have bent parliamentary norms and rules to speed votes on pet issues, such as last year's attempt to repeal the Affordable Care Act and this year's effort to confirm Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court.
Legislative calendar for USMCA
- Aug. 31: White House notifies Congress of intent to sign bilateral trade deal with Mexico
- Sept. 30: Canada negotiations conclude to create a trilateral deal and text of agreement is published, triggering 60-day clock until official signing
- Nov. 30: Earliest date leaders can sign USMCA
- Administration has 60 days from signing to submit list of changes to U.S. law needed for deal to take effect
- International Trade Commission has up to 105 days after signing to review agreement's economic impact and issue a report, but experts expect it would be done sooner because the USMCA deal builds on NAFTA and the commission already has the text
- Final text of bill to implement and administration plan must be submitted 30 days before the legislation is introduced in Congress
- House Ways and Means Committee has 45 days from when the bill is submitted to hold hearings and report the bill to the House floor, with an up-or-down recommendation
- House has up to 15 days to vote, with majority needed for passage
- Bill moves to Senate, where Finance Committee has 15 days to consider it
- Senate has up to 15 days to vote, with majority needed for passage
- Note: For Congress, "days" means days in session, not calendar days. Deadlines are maximum time allowed under trade promotion authority. Actions could be completed sooner, and each chamber could conduct hearings simultaneously, although Senate votes have to wait until bill is referred by House
Source: Automotive News research
But those issues have ideologically galvanized Republicans. The political stakes aren't as high for them on a NAFTA update and may not be enough motivation to ignore rules they wrote for advice and consent on trade policy, the former U.S. trade official said.
What's more, if the fast-track process is circumvented in the name of speed, the threshold for passage becomes more difficult because a challenge likely would be mounted requiring 60 votes in the Senate instead of a simple majority.
For a lame-duck vote to happen, "Both houses need to be in session, and the possibility of Congress staying in session on Dec. 30 or Jan. 2 just to receive a trade agreement many legislators feel very lukewarm about, at best, is a stretch," the source added.
A vote sometime in the first quarter of 2019 is more likely, according to analysts.
Some opponents may try to stop the deal on procedural grounds, arguing that the administration didn't properly consult with Congress along the way, as required under fast-track authority that permits a simple up-or-down vote.
Passage may depend on how labor unions react. The UAW and the AFL-CIO have long held that NAFTA was a manufacturing jobs killer as companies moved production to Mexico, but they were careful with their language after the USMCA was announced, saying the test is whether provisions to protect worker rights and the environment are enforceable.
"Numerous details still need to be reviewed and resolved before making a final judgment on this agreement," the UAW said in a statement. "New protections for working families and the closing of some loopholes for global companies seeking to ship jobs overseas are a step in the right direction, but there is more work to do. We need to be assured that Mexico is going to fix weak labor laws and enforce new worker protections. We do not know what the U.S. Trade Representative and Congress will do to make sure the words in the agreement are carried out."
Political experts said Democrats probably will hold out for sweeteners to improve the deal.
"I think it has a chance of going through, but I think Democrats will try to extract a little more blood," Collinson said.
Trump still could threaten to withdraw from NAFTA if it looks like Congress might stiff him on USMCA approval, although the ex-trade official predicted he would wait until next year before considering the nuclear option.
That option is not without risk, too. Some lawmakers may call the president's bluff, knowing that notice to withdraw simply starts a six-month clock on withdrawal, during which time Wall Street might react negatively and they could pass legislation blocking such a move.
