A bevy of business models and types of enterprises are expected in 2030.
Automakers: Traditional automakers will mass-produce cars and trucks, but software and consumer data will generate the big profits.
Fleet owners: Uber, Lyft, FedEx, you name it — each will buy autonomous vehicles by the tens of thousands, all built to spec. The fleets will badge vehicles with their own "house" brands.
Tech alliances: To get the technology they need, automakers will form alliances with chipmakers, software vendors and key suppliers. Traditional purchasing policies will be tossed aside because carmakers won't be calling the shots.
Disruptors: Google, Uber and other automotive newcomers are not under pressure to protect old business models. They intend to make money on mobility — not autos.
The "brain" labs: Big chipmakers such as Intel, Nvidia and Qualcomm will hold the keys to artificial intelligence, the silicon "brain" of an autonomous car. Automakers can't simply buy these chips and plug them in. Instead, chipmakers will work side by side with their customers.
Taxi fleets: Uber, Lyft and other taxi fleets might order a basic vehicle platform — powered by a modular electric motor and battery — and fit them with interiors supplied by a seatmaker. Depending on market demand, the fleets would order interiors for a mobile office, lounge or even a party wagon.
Contract manufacturers: What if a carmaker outsourced all vehicle assembly to an automotive version of Foxconn, Apple's manufacturing partner? It could happen.
EV mega-suppliers: As electric vehicles gain acceptance, a handful of suppliers will produce the necessary motors, batteries and electronics. Automakers will treat them as partners — not vendors.
Mobility brokers: Today's big dealer groups will maintain self-driving fleets for businesses, taxi operators and private individuals. Every day, the vehicles will drive themselves to businesses and homes, then return at night to the dealerships.
Infotainment centers: Retailers, automakers and telecoms will share the revenue generated by a vehicle's infotainment and advertising.
Dealers as lenders: Retail groups will launch their own lending institutions to finance the fleets they maintain for subscription-based ownership models. They could also floorplan and run the entire balance sheet for smaller fleet providers, such as app-enabled taxi services.
Self-driving service centers: Nationwide dealer groups with the cash to invest in tools, technicians and training will be big winners as autonomous vehicles proliferate.
