How to make a go of it in mobility

As assistant editor for mobility, Shiraz Ahmed reports on smart cities, startups, suppliers and the road map to our autonomous future. He has developed some ideas on what the mobility industry will look like in 2030 and what it will take for service providers to succeed.

It's a Monday morning in 2030 and you're ready for the robo-commute to work.

Here are your choices: Book a trip with EconoRide, a free service derived from what was previously a national rental car company. EconoRide packs 20 commuters into a self-driving shuttle bus with rigid metal seats and makes money by badgering riders with an incessant stream of targeted advertising.

Or indulge yourself with Magic Carpet, a private autonomous car service operated by a high-end carmaker that will let you sink into a cushy seat, enjoy a morning mimosa and relax with a virtual reality meditative session.

These are imaginary companies, but this is how prognosticators see the future in the mobility business.

In 2030, it won't matter what company's app you download or who owns the vehicles. Tomorrow's transportation will be defined by the same forces that have shaped the last century of product marketing: branding and customer experience.

Luxury carmakers have long relied on performance and an aura of wealth and prestige. A company such as Subaru has benefited from its affiliation with the outdoors.

Tomorrow, just as today, strong brands will need to clearly communicate value to riders — and match that reputation with comparable in-car experiences.

One expert I spoke to likens the future market for mobility services to today's airline industry. Safety and reliability have been commoditized by stringent regulation, so carriers compete on consumer sentiment and ancillary offerings such as loyalty programs, in-flight luxuries or luggage allowances. Spirit Airlines, for instance, has built its marketing around a bare-bones offering, a strategy that could be maximized by autonomous transportation services in which the cost per mile can be subsidized by advertising and data collection on riders.

Carmakers have already begun incorporating digital technology to differentiate the rider experience, offering music streaming services, virtual assistant integration and personalized settings for climate control and comfort. Smart companies will learn to package, brand and improve these experiences so they're easy to use for a one-off five-minute ride as well as a regular two-hour commute.

For some of these experiences, winners will recognize and capitalize on local needs. In Denver, a rental car affiliate might outfit its self-driving fleet of off-roaders with built-in seating that massages and rejuvenates sore muscles from long days of skiing.

In San Francisco, small, one-seater vehicles that incorporate services such as teleconferencing may do well.

Success won't be determined necessarily by who has the edge in software or hardware, as is often stated, but instead by those who can maneuver around local consumer tastes and preferences.