Like it or not, signs signal change for auto retail

I keep hearing how ride-sharing, autonomous vehicles and technology will one day kill consumers' desire to own a car, thus altering car dealership operations forever.

Yeah, right. This is America, the land of love for the open road, high horsepower and polished chrome.

But a recent conversation with my cousin has prompted me to rethink my smug view.

My cousin enjoys boating, but he does not want the hassle and expense of ownership. So he joined a yacht club where, for a monthly fee, he selects one of several boats to use for a certain amount of time. It's a subscription service of sorts.

When I told him there are those in the auto industry who envision similar programs for cars instead of boats, his eyes lit up.

"I would love that!" he said, intrigued by the option of having access to such variety and not being locked into one car until his lease expired or he had positive equity.

The prevailing auto retail model rests on the premise that most people want to own a car. But that's changing based on people's needs and technological advancements. In fact, car ownership may become mostly obsolete someday.

Consider what was novel a few years ago and now is accepted. Ride-sharing is now commonplace, autonomous vehicles inch closer to reality and electric vehicles regularly roll down the road. Then, there is my cousin's enthusiastic reaction to the idea of a subscription car-rental service. All of it signals that change lies ahead.

I foresee car dealerships morphing into transportation facilities rather than sales centers -- at least in urban areas. In such areas, many people do not need to own a vehicle. They could get by using ride-sharing or public transportation, with the option of a subscription service with a dealership that allows them to rent a vehicle frequently, but yet only as needed. The benefit of the latter vs. buying the actual car may be lower costs for vehicle use and cheaper insurance rates. It also offers the convenience of not having to maintain the car or find storage or parking for it.

A dealer earns an added source of revenue from the subscription fee. But it will mean changing the conversation and honing new skills for sales staff who would become consultants rather than pushing the product, said Adam Robinson, CEO of consultancy Hireology in Chicago.

"It will look like, 'Tell me about the transportation needs of your family. Are you thinking of a model where you're renting the transportation on an as-needed basis or do you need to own the car?'" said Robinson. "That's not a conversation we're having today."

In other words, "The menu of options will expand dramatically," said Robinson.

I'm inclined to think this is decades away. But I remember that when I moved to Michigan 13 years ago, I did something I considered radical at the time: I gave up my landline home telephone in lieu of using only a mobile phone.

Today, relatively few people have a landline home telephone. Change often happens faster than we imagine.