Speaking in an April call with analysts, FCA CEO Sergio Marchionne said, "Alfa and Maserati together will sell 230,000 units in 2017."
He forecasts that Maserati will sell about 60,000 vehicles, leaving Alfa to sell 170,000 globally this year.
That will be a dramatic twist for Alfa Romeo. The premium brand sold just 73,000 vehicles worldwide last year.
IHS Markit is less optimistic than Marchionne. The market research firm forecasts Alfa will sell 120,000 vehicles worldwide this year. The Stelvio, which Alfa is rolling out in Europe, will account for fewer than 25,000 sales globally, according to the forecast.
It will go on sale in the U.S. this summer with a base price of $42,990, including shipping. The vehicle comes with a 2.0-liter direct-injection intercooled turbo four-cylinder engine that yields 280 hp.
Alfa's struggle is well-documented. It is amid its fourth revival plan since Marchionne joined the company in June 2004. The 5 billion euro ($5.62 billion) turnaround plan presented in 2014 targeted sales of 400,000 vehicles in 2018 and predicted Alfa volume would rise to 500,000 soon thereafter without providing a time frame.
Marchionne revised that plan in January 2016, moving the 400,000-vehicle sales goal to 2020.
Through the first three months of this year, Alfa has increased European sales 35 percent to 21,512 vehicles, JATO's numbers show. If Alfa tops 100,000 sales this year, it will be the first time it has done that since 2012. The last time it sold more than 200,000 vehicles was in 2001.
Alfa Romeo declined to comment for this report.