Could Opel deal set off a chain reaction?

GENEVA -- Historically, deals like General Motors' sale of Opel/Vauxhall to PSA Group have set off a chain reaction in the industry: an urgent sizing-up of competitive conditions and some rummaging around for potential partners.

So is a new round of consolidation in the works, all thanks to Carlos Tavares, PSA's dynamic and acquisitive CEO?

"Ask other automakers," Tavares told Automotive News Europe. "My plate will be full integrating Opel/Vauxhall."

In fact, his plate is about to get even fuller as PSA prepares to buy Proton Holdings, the Malaysian automaker. Proton "is all but a done deal," Tavares said, "and could offer us a great opportunity to expand in Southeast Asia."

Renault-Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn, Tav-ares' Paris rival and former boss at Nissan and lately Renault, blessed PSA's Opel deal.

"I've always been an advocate of consolidation," Ghosn said at the auto show here. "The Renault-Nissan Alliance turned 17 years old and I am currently working hard to integrate our latest arrival, Mitsubishi Motors."

Ghosn says size matters, but that scale alone can be useless if companies do not share parts and technologies on a massive scale -- "something that takes time, believe me."

Ford of Europe COO Steven Armstrong said consolidation will happen, with or without the PSA-Opel deal.

"We've been consolidating [as an industry] since day one and I'm sure there will be future consolidation, be it in the form of alliances, cooperations or somebody acquiring somebody else," he said.

But it's not clear that what happened last week even constitutes "consolidation."

"Whether it is Opel just moving from one parent to another or whether they will fully integrate remains to be seen," Armstrong said.

In terms of sales, the Opel-PSA deal will put Europe's No. 3 group (PSA) together with No. 5 (Opel/Vauxhall) to create a new No. 2 after Volkswagen Group. In 2016, PSA and Opel together would have accounted for 16.3 percent market share, behind VW Group's 24.1 percent and ahead of Renault-Nissan's 10.9 percent.

The deal also adds pressure on already struggling smaller nonluxury players in the region. Volume automakers in Europe are losing share -- and some of their most lucrative sales -- to luxury brands.

BMW sales boss Ian Robertson says mainstream brands have suffered from "the success of premium automakers moving into smaller cars as we did with the Mini range and the BMW 1 and 2 series."

The PSA-Opel deal set tongues wagging about Fiat Chrysler, whose CEO, Sergio Marchionne, has been the industry's leading advocate of consolidation. FCA is in a tough spot in Europe. Its 6.6 percent share is last among the six main groups and its operating margin of 2.5 percent lags most rivals. Both French volume groups are over 6 percent. 

Marchionne lobbied publicly in 2015 to merge his company with GM, and was soundly rebuffed. But he is not giving up. 

"I never close any doors," he said in Geneva, and "may shamelessly try knocking on the GM door again, or any door" if it is a "good thing to do for the business." 

But Marchionne says the PSA-Opel deal reduces by about 15 percent the synergies FCA could reap from a tie-up. He says a merger with GM is still worth pursuing, but conceded that after leaving Europe, GM may be even less inclined to talk with FCA. 

GM President Dan Ammann confirmed that notion in Geneva, telling reporters: "We weren't interested before and we're even less interested now." 

Marchionne suggested that FCA's door is now open to Volkswagen Group. 

"I have no doubt that at the relevant time VW may show up and have a chat," he said, adding that PSA-Opel "threatens VW most, creating a No. 2 on its heels." 

Combining would strengthen VW's foothold in North America through Chrysler and would address FCA's lack of scale in Asia. Still, Wolfsburg seems uninterested. 

"We are not ready for talks about anything ... we have other problems," VW CEO Matthias Mueller told Reuters, adding: "I haven't seen Marchionne for months."