"We are conservative," said Christian Mueller, IHS Markit's European manager for automotive component analysis.
One reason Mueller is cautious is he doesn't believe Volkswagen Group will reach its ambitious global sales prediction of 2 million to 3 million battery-electric cars by 2025.
He thinks it could be a ploy to get a better deal from the battery cell makers competing for the right to supply Europe's largest automaker.
"Automaker planning numbers are usually far removed from reality," he said. "A lot of this is price negotiation. If you're asking for 1 million units, you get a different price than for a more realistic 500,000."
He said this tactic wasn't unique to EVs or VW Group.
Uncertainty about EV demand caused General Motors to withhold the new Opel Ampera-e from the United Kingdom despite it being GM's biggest sales market in Europe.
"When we made that decision, we had the [range-extended] Ampera in the marketplace, and the environment wasn't good for electric vehicles," Pam Fletcher, GM's head of EV development, told Automotive News Europe.
In the U.S., meanwhile, Ford CEO Mark Fields wants tough future emissions targets softened to place less emphasis on EVs, citing weak demand.