Is it finally EVs' time? Predictions vary widely

Optimism about electric vehicle demand is nothing new.

Renault-Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn predicted in 2012 that his French-Japanese alliance would sell 1.5 million EVs by 2016. Combined Renault-Nissan EV numbers, however, have failed to reach one-third of Ghosn's target in the six years after the Nissan Leaf, the world's top-selling EV, was launched.

EV predictions still vary widely. Financial analysts at Exane BNP Paribas bullishly forecast that EVs will have a 16 percent share of global vehicle sales by 2025 while IHS Markit believes that figure will be 3.4 percent.

"We are conservative," said Christian Mueller, IHS Markit's European manager for automotive component analysis. 

One reason Mueller is cautious is he doesn't believe Volkswagen Group will reach its ambitious global sales prediction of 2 million to 3 million battery-electric cars by 2025. 

He thinks it could be a ploy to get a better deal from the battery cell makers competing for the right to supply Europe's largest automaker. 

"Automaker planning numbers are usually far removed from reality," he said. "A lot of this is price negotiation. If you're asking for 1 million units, you get a different price than for a more realistic 500,000." 

He said this tactic wasn't unique to EVs or VW Group. 

Uncertainty about EV demand caused General Motors to withhold the new Opel Ampera-e from the United Kingdom despite it being GM's biggest sales market in Europe. 

"When we made that decision, we had the [range-extended] Ampera in the marketplace, and the environment wasn't good for electric vehicles," Pam Fletcher, GM's head of EV development, told Automotive News Europe.

In the U.S., meanwhile, Ford CEO Mark Fields wants tough future emissions targets softened to place less emphasis on EVs, citing weak demand.

Ford has been reluctant to drop its EV prices to lure customers. 

Global EV numbers, however, are climbing at a double- or triple-digit pace. In the first nine months of 2016, sales of all vehicles with a power cord, including plug-in hybrids, were up 53 percent to nearly 518,000, according to analysis from consultancy EV Volumes in Sweden. 

Europe was up 24 percent to 51,050 during the period; the U.S. rose 62 percent to 44,530; and China volume increased 117 percent to 225,000.