How will GMC grow?

DETROIT -- In March 2015 GMC chief Duncan Aldred planted one of the industry's most ambitious stakes in the ground: a goal to grow the General Motors truck brand's market share by two-thirds over a decade, to 5 percent from about 3 percent.

Since then, GMC's U.S. market share hasn't budged, despite the hot market for pickups, SUVs and crossovers -- the only stuff GMC makes. The result underscores that GM's growth targets for its profitable truck marque eventually will require new models and nameplates.

One potential avenue: venturing into Jeep's terrain. Industry sources believe GMC is drawing up plans for an SUV based on the same body-on-frame platform that serves as the bones of the GMC Canyon and Chevrolet Colorado midsize pickup. It's in the early stages -- it doesn't appear to have been sourced to suppliers yet and the SUV's arrival isn't expected until 2020 or later. 

If a new GMC SUV materializes, it would mark a milestone for GM's under-the-radar brand. Today, GMC's entire lineup shares underpinnings with Chevy. The strategy has worked because GM moved past its badge-engineering ways to package the vehicles in distinct sheet metal and identities -- think the Colorado and Canyon or the round-edged Chevy Equinox and boxy GMC Terrain.

But big sales growth will require a different path, one that appeals to people who might not normally be inclined to visit any of GM's showrooms. Jeep customers could be a good place to start, says Sam Fiorani, vice president of vehicle forecasting for AutoForecast Solutions, a Philadelphia-area research firm.

"Jeep is on such a growth path. GMC is the obvious one to go after them," he said. "A body-on-frame sport utility is a prime candidate" as an initial Jeep fighter.

A GMC SUV also could counter a future Ford Bronco SUV, believed to be on schedule for around 2020.

In an interview last week, Aldred said GMC is focused on Phase 1 of the growth plan, which includes a big increase in marketing and an effort to elevate the Denali high-end subbrand. It's working, he said. Denali has grown to account for a quarter of sales, from 20 percent just 18 months ago. Transaction prices and profitability have risen accordingly, he said.

New products would be part of Phase 2, starting around 2020, Aldred said. He wouldn't tip his hand as to what's in the works but agreed that Jeep is an inviting target.

"I do think GMC has got the brand equity and brand character in many respects to give customers a really good alternative to Jeep products," he said. GMC took a small step in that direction with the All Terrain version of the redesigned 2017 Acadia, which reached showrooms in the spring.

GMC's options for expanding its lineup may be limited as GM's other brands expand their crossover offerings, Fiorani says. At some point, it might not make sense for GMC's portfolio to match that of Chevy one-for-one, regardless of how distinct the vehicles are, he says. That also goes for Buick, GMC's showroom mate, which now has three crossovers with the recent addition of the compact Envision.

For example, rumors of a small crossover from GMC have simmered since it showed the Granite concept in 2010. But there's still no sign of concrete plans, even though Aldred has said in the past that he has lobbied for one. GM already has the popular Buick Encore and the Chevy Trax.

"With Buick in the same showroom, you really can't go too far out on a limb" with similar products, Fiorani said. "And I can't imagine GM wants to cannibalize Chevy's sales either."

Aldred acknowledged that the makeup of Buick's and GMC's vehicle lineups could overlap more with Buick's crossover emphasis. But he believes the customer bases and vehicle identities are sufficiently distinct.

The way Cincinnati-area GMC dealer Greg Holman sees it, the only new model GMC needs is something to fend off Ford's Transit cargo van. As for the pickups, crossovers and SUVs, Holman is content. He'll take as many Denalis as he can get. They account for nearly half of his sales.

"Just go down to the Bengals game and park below the stadium," Holman said. "There are Yukon Denalis everywhere."